The Bloody Elbow team has submitted its predictions for Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders card in Belem, Brazil. Only Victor Rodriguez is backing Lyoto Machida to win against the upstart prospect Eryk Anders, something that would’ve been crazy talk just a year ago. Meanwhile, no one is giving Priscila Cachoeira even a slim chance of beating Valentina Shevchenko in the co-main.
For the record, most of us were going with John Dodson over Pedro Munhoz before the fight got cancelled.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Mookie Alexander: I’d pick 2014 Machida over Anders without hesitation. Hell, 2018 Machida can still win on the basis of Anders’ inexperience against high-level competition. The problem is that 2018 Machida conclusively has lost a step athletically, and is getting jarred repeatedly with hard head shots. Anders is an explosive athlete who might get careless moving forward, but can Machida exploit those opportunities? I don’t think he can anymore, sad as it is to say. It’s just hard to see Machida avoiding getting hit with something massive and eventually crumbling. Eryk Anders by KO, round 2.
Dayne Fox: Machida is an all-time great. No one is debating that. But all-time greats never win the battle to Father Time and Machida refuses to give that fight up yet despite having lost a step. Anders is an athletic marvel with great instincts. He’ll find a way to touch up Machida’s chin and leave us mourning over another Machida loss that further distances him away from the memory of Machida in his prime. Anders via KO of RD1
Victor Rodriguez: I’m not content to just go with a reckless underdog pick, but I’ll double down and add a dollop of nostalgia on this one as well. Machida might actually fend off Anders’ takedown attempts and keep the distance to where it suits him best. Look, I know I’ve said for years now that he’s been figured out, but this is Lyoto. Maybe, just maybe he’s got his defense together and can crack a lesser-experienced fighter with a brutal and beautiful counter so we don’t feel so sad. Lyoto Machida by TKO, because nothing means anything anymore.
Eddie Mercado: Oh you’re surprised you got the main event spot? #sacraficiallamb Eryk Anders by coming out party in round 1
Staff picking Machida: Victor
Staff picking Anders: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Phil, Dayne, Tim, Eddie
Valentina Shevchenko vs. Priscila Cachoeira
Mookie Alexander: Cachoeira is just several levels below Shevchenko, and this won’t be competitive. Valentina Shevchenko by TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Pretty much every fight in this division thus far has been some flavour of bad, ranging from the fun but sloppy (Kim-Kish) to the irredeemably abysmal (Chookagian-Romello). This cynically-booked squash match should at least be one-sided...? Valentina Shevchenko by TKO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Guess nobody wanted to fight Valentina, huh? Cachoeira moves forward but has porous defense and not much of a plan when it comes to striking. Horrid matchup that lets Valentina set up some highlight reel moments as she superstyles on the newcomer. Congratulations on making it to the UFC, but you’re gonna get this work. Valentina Shevchenko by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Shevchenko: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Dayne, Victor, Tim, Eddie
Staff picking Cachoeira:
Desmond Green vs. Michel Prazeres
Mookie Alexander: This could be an utterly terrible fight in which nothing truly meaningful happens on the feet and we see more clinching and stalemates than we’d care to see. I can just envision this being an ugly split decision, and that’s what I’m going with. Michel Prazeres by split decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I’ve really enjoyed Prazeres’ evolution from a takedown-rinse-repeat threat into a more three-dimensional power kickboxer and submission fighter. While Trator the Tertiary Tibau has already shown that he could beat the brakes off a slightly passive Hooft fighter in Burns, I think I like Green’s slightly more natural and effective counterpunching game to make the difference. He’s been pretty solid at fighting fellow southpaws, and while Greens’ tendency to just give areas of the fight to the void are always present, Prazeres’ game has always been a little vulnerable to getting pried apart if he can’t get it rolling. Desmond Green by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Prazeres makes fights so ugly, guys. Ugh. Problem is that Green has had some struggles against guys like this, and he can be bullied around for portions of the fight by a guy like this. Green’s got good cardio and better boxing with a more fluid overall game, which translates from striking to clinchwork. Gotta go with the the guy that won’t just try to sloppily drag the guy to the ground without doing much else after. Des Green by decision.
Staff picking Green: Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Victor, Green
Staff picking Prazeres: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Dayne, Tim
Marcelo Golm vs. Timothy Johnson
Mookie Alexander: I don’t like picking heavyweight fights. I’ll just assume that Golm will go for the finish early, gas himself out, and Johnson will win the last two rounds. Timothy Johnson by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: I’m not picking heavyweight prospects to beat Timothy Johnson. I’d probably still pick him to beat Junior Albini to be honest. Golm looks like he has a real knack for striking on the feet, is an amazingly potent ground and pounder, and can even hit some nice submissions. On the other hand, Timothy Johnson is a big tough dude who is big, and also tough. And big. Heavyweight. Timothy Johnson by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: This fight is going to be uglier than Sam Cassell. Look, I should realistically pick Tim Johnson, but at the same time feel that Golm is the kind of oddball that will catch a guy like Johnson at a moment where Tim throws a left hand and doesn’t bring it back up fast enough. Heavyweight is weird, is what I’m saying. I suspect another hugfest with heavy heaving and phenomenal facial follicles, but the new guy stuns the veteran with a finish out of nowhere. Besides, I’ll take the guy that is more likely to finish fights and is in far better shape. Ees normal. Marcelo Golm by submission.
Eddie Mercado: If you caught my recent interview with Tim Johnson then you know that he has a gigantic heart. You will never catch me picking against him. Timothy Johnson by good ol’ fashion passionate ass whoopin. WARRRRRR JOHNSON!!!!!
Staff picking Golm: Bissell, Nick, Stephie, Fraser, Victor
Staff picking Johnson: Mookie, Dayne, Phil, Tim, Eddie
Thiago Santos vs. Anthony Smith
Mookie Alexander: Anthony Smith is a tough fighter who has put together a nice winning streak, but he’s so bad defensively, especially in the earlier stages of fights, that I struggle to see how he can survive Santos’ extremely dangerous and accurate striking without getting folded up. This should be Fight of the Night given the likelihood we see a serious pace being pushed. Thiago Santos by body kick TKO, round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Anthony Smith is such a strange fighter. Offensively deadly, but defensively all over the shop in pretty much every phase. He always strikes me as tremendously insecure, but he somehow (and oddly laudably) manages to fuel his fighting style with that same insecurity. The internal battle with fight-or-flight instincts tends to make for characteristically vacillating performances. Thiago Santos is himself someone who tends to absolutely detonate if the fight hits the mat, with a not-great chin, but he’s fairly hard to actually take down and is a far more buttoned up and defensively sound fighter on the feet. He also hits ridiculously hard. Smith is someone who can overwhelm a lot of middleweights (and probably even moreso light heavyweights) with pure offense, but the gaps in his defense seem likely to doom him this time. Thiago Santos by TKO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Smith’s boxing game is underrated, in large part due to his use of range and willingness to not just headhunt, but actually bust out body shots. Problem is, Santos can negate that distance advantage and brutalize Smith with otherworldly power. Smith is going to struggle to take him down, and pressing against the fence is unlikely. You really have to give the man credit, Santos has really tightened up his game to be more than just a kickboxer with no ground game - he’s at least become enough of a threat with his takedown defense to make this a hard out for anyone. Unless Smith has some tricks up his sleeve, he’s going to find that out for himself. Thiago Santos by TKO, round 3.
Eddie Mercado: Santos early or Smith late? For all the talk about Smith’s defensive lapses, it’s actually been Santos who has been making the fight ending mistakes as of late. Granted, Santos did fight Gegard Mousasi, but still, he lost because of how he chose to return to his feet. Smith has holes, but also has the durability to compensate long enough to get him into deeper water, plus he has the necessary cardio to flourish late. Smith has more avenues to get the W, so I’m picking Anthony Smith by Submission (Mounted Triangle) at 3:23 of round 3. Also, take a gander at my recent interview with Anthony Smith, complete with a cameo from Joe Warren.
Staff picking Santos: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Dayne, Phil, Tim, Victor
Staff picking Smith: Bissell, Eddie
Douglas Silva de Andrade vs. Marlon Vera
Phil Mackenzie: Chito Vera is an absolutely atrocious starter, and DSdA comes out of the gate with speed and power. De Andrade has that kind of crude, wood-block Muay Thai which can drastically slow down a beanpole like Chito if given time to work. Chito’s main advantage is his phenomenal toughness, and growing comfort in all ranges, most notably the clinch. That seems to be where he can close down a tiring de Andrade and work him over for the latter phases of the fight, potentially taking the fight to the ground if he can. Marlon Vera by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Bruh. I stopped doubting Vera at this point. He’s really turning into a threat, far from the guy that really relied mostly on his BJJ background. He’s able to move out of situations that don’t suit him now, plus he can get the most out of that kicking game of his. Douglas is tough, and a better/more dynamic athlete. He might not be able to keep himself in range to nail those leg kicks he’s going to want to use if Vera keeps his wits about him. Marlon hurts him standing and sinks in a choke to seal the deal. Marlon Vera by submission, round 2.
Staff picking Silva de Andrade: Bissell,
Staff picking Vera: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Dayne, Tim, Victor, Eddie
Phil Mackenzie: Sergio Moraes throws weird stuff with a lot of confidence and surprisingly good timing. That being said, I just don’t think he has either the technical game or the sheer physical power to take Means down, where he holds his major advantage. So I suspect Means is a little baffled by Moraes’ bolos at first, then figures them out and dismantles him. Tim Means by TKO, round 3.
Victor Rodriguez: Part of me really wants Moraes to win so he can do another hilarious post-fight dance. Also, he’s by all measures a really nice guy. The problem with that is that he’s going to fight a dude, not have a dance-off. Means has far better striking and Moraes’ takedown game isn’t wrestling-oriented. Even if it were, it wouldn’t be on a high enough level to threaten Means. Tim Means by TKO, round 2.
Eddie Mercado: Di duh dirty dirty! Tim Means by Dirty Birding in round 2.
Staff picking Moraes: Tim
Staff picking Means: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Dayne, Victor, Eddie
Damir Hadzovic vs. Alan Patrick
Phil Mackenzie: Hadzovic is in many ways the better “fighter”, and a kind of odd anti-grappler brawler who throws knees and uppercuts to intercept opponents on the way in. That being said, he doesn’t defend takedowns very well at all in any of the traditional ways and Patrick is much more cautious on his entries than Marcin Held, who relies a lot on his chin (didn’t work out so well, as it turned out). I can very much see Hadzovic just outworking the rather offensively inert Patrick, but it still feels like Patrick is going to pick up enough takedowns, potshots and lame top control to win an uninspiring bout on the cards. Alan Patrick by unanimous decision.
Staff picking Hadzovic:
Staff picking Patrick: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Dayne, Tim, Victor, Eddie
Phil Mackenzie: I think Iuri would have been a nightmare for Soto in his prime. Huge, physically overwhelming, with the dynamic, opportunistic starts which have plagued Soto, but with a classy BJJ game which would probably insulate him if he failed to knock Soto out. But. Iuri is not in his prime. That being said, I think he still has a major size and power advantage, and it’s only been when people have aggressive and physical approaches that they’ve been able to get to him. If you give Alcantara aggression without the physicality to back it up (e.g. Pickett) I suspect it plays into his hands. Iuri Alcantara by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: I’ll put this out on front street and go on record here - I don’t trust the Alcantara brothers. Ildemar was easier to get a read on, but Iuri took a while to peak and start sliding out of his prime. Soto’s wrestling and counters will be the difference here, as well as his entries to strike allowing him to get out of danger when he’s done hitting. Soto’s also got a more reliable BJJ game. Putting my chips on Joe for this one. Joe Soto by decision.
Staff picking Alcantara: Bissell, Fraser, Phil, Tim, Eddie
Staff picking Soto: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Victor
Maia Stevenson vs. Polyana Viana
Phil Mackenzie: Both the women’s fights on this card are blowouts on paper. Viana is more technical, much younger, and has fought a better level of competition. Stevenson is perhaps the better striker, but raw fights almost always go to the better grappler. Polyana Viana by submission, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: I’m still not sure how Maia got on TUF. I’m not trying to dog her, but every one of her professional wins has been a winless opponent. Don’t believe me? Fine. Viana’s faced lesser-known opposition with more limited skillsets overall, but at least she’s got the confidence of finishing all but one of her opponents in her wins. Chalk one up for the newbie. Polyana Viana by submission, round 2.
Staff picking Stevenson: Bissell
Staff picking Viana: Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Dayne, Tim, Eddie
Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Joseph Morales
Phil Mackenzie: Figueiredo is a low pace version of the Marajo Sneak-Brawler, a good-offense minimal-defense-but-hey-the offense-is-actually-pretty-scary fighter of the sort that you’d expect out of a Alcantara protege. I was both impressed and concerned by his performance against Jarred Brooks, where he gave up takedowns but managed to steal the grappling with guillotines. Morales has less craft but far more pace on the feet. Both are capable offensive wrestlers but neither is great at stopping them, which probably means we get fun scrambles and mutual attacking of guillotines and sweeps. I think I like Figueiredo to land the harder shots and scarier moments in the first two rounds, but if Morales survives then his pace will be telling by the end of a close fight. Deiveson Figueiredo by split decision.
Victor Rodriguez: I wasn’t thinking that Figueiredo’s game would lead him to do well at this level, but he’s done well so far. I just don’t find that he’ll be able to do what he did against Brooks, as Morales has a better nose for baiting submission attempts to improve position and outwork his opponents. Morales is another guy that fights in a way that judges reward, with smarter striking choices and a clearer idea of what he’s going to do once he gets his opponent down. Joseph Morales by decision.
Staff picking Figueiredo: Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Phil, Fraser, Tim
Staff picking Morales: Dayne, Victor, Eddie