I haven’t been the kindest when it comes to giving reasons to watch the UFC Adelaide card so far. While I’m not going to go so far as to say the main card makes up for what the prelims lacked, there are some quality contests that are worth a peek. While Mark Hunt may have more in common with the AARP crowd than with the majority of the roster, the King of the Walkoff KO is still a highlight reel waiting to happen. He plays gatekeeper to a promising up-and-comer in Justin Willis. Shogun Rua, despite his legendary status, doesn’t elicit the same type of anticipation as Hunt does at this point. However, the former Pride Grand Prix champion has proven he’s capable of glimmers of his past glory. Like Hunt, Shogun plays gatekeeper to young Aussie Tyson Pedro. Earth-shattering contests? No. But it is possible they could be launching pads to something special….
The main card begins on FS1 at 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT on Saturday.
Mark Hunt (13-13-1, 1 NC) vs. Justin Willis (7-1), Heavyweight
Don’t let Hunt’s age or lack of recent success fool you. The Super Samoan is still very dangerous. At 44 with a single victory in his last five appearances, it’s easy to be deceived. More than anything, Hunt is disillusioned with UFC management and simply wants to finish out his contract. I’d be lying if I said he was still as explosive as ever, but Hunt had power to spare from his heyday and can still put down anyone in the division with a single shot. It’s just a matter of whether he can land that shot….
The UFC and Willis are both hoping he makes his name off the veteran big man. A surprisingly quick big man who pushes against the heavyweight weight limit, Willis doesn’t look like much of an athlete. However, his slick counter punching relies more on volume than on a single big shot. That doesn’t mean Willis isn’t can’t secure a finish, but it’s the pace the big man pushes that opponents have had the hardest time dealing with. Seeing Willis’ doughy frame, you wouldn’t think that would be the case. Knowing he trains with Cain Velasquez and Daniel Cormier, it makes a bit more sense.
Hunt will be at a major disadvantage in terms of reach, though that’s hardly something knew for the former K-1 star. His expert use of angles and sense of timing and distance may be the best in the business. That makes it impossible to count him out even if he does seem to be disinterested in furthering his climb up the UFC ladder. Despite that, I’m leaning towards the youngster as Willis will no doubt be 100% focused on this fight. Willis is sound defensively – especially for someone so young in their career – and should have the gas tank to outlast Hunt. Willis via decision
Shogun Rua (25-11) vs. Tyson Pedro (7-2), Light Heavyweight
The legendary Shogun is a shell of what he once was in his prime. However, it shouldn’t be a surprise given his prime was over a decade ago. Yep, it’s been that long since Shogun’s Pride heyday. He’s been getting by more on guile and savvy than overwhelming his opponents with his sheer level of violence. It has worked at times, though it has also seen him being the one overwhelmed too when opponents don’t bother to show him respect.
Pedro generally doesn’t show respect to his opponents, leading to his losses to a pair of brick houses in Ilir Latifi and Ovince Saint Preux as he was unable to do what Shogun used to do: overwhelm them physically. Given Shogun’s physical decline, Pedro should easily be able to out-athlete his senior opponent, especially given Shogun’s typically poor takedown defense. Pedro has shown enough wrestling and submission skills that a submission victory over the light heavyweight legend wouldn’t be a shocking conclusion.
Despite quick finishes in his last two losses, Shogun isn’t fragile, enduring several hard shots throughout his three-fight win streak. If he can drag Pedro into a brawl, Shogun is savvy enough to either outpoint the Aussie or knock him silly. Despite that possibility being quite high, I still favor the younger fighter here. Pedro has shown a sound fight IQ and doesn’t seem likely to give Shogun many opportunities to fight his fight. Pedro via decision
Jake Matthews (14-3) vs. Tony Martin (14-4), Welterweight
Matthews career has been a career of fits and starts. The UFC lobbed him some softballs early in his career, recognizing the youngster had a lot of growing to do. When he received a step up in competition, he often hit a wall. Now that he’s been associated with the organization one way or another for the last five years and matured into a stout welterweight, he might be ready to make a run.
The funny thing is Martin’s career mirrors Matthews in some ways. Too big to fight effectively at lightweight for a full 15 minutes, Martin has looked far more energetic at 170 than he ever did in his lightweight career. His striking is starting to connect the dots more efficiently as he’s gained experience. His bread and butter is still his wrestling and grappling, highlighted by power submissions such as kimuras, americanas, and triangle chokes.
How Matthews responds to someone of Martin’s size and wrestling will be interesting as the native Aussie struggled with a powerful Kevin Lee. That was a few years ago and Lee is hyper-athletic, but Martin is just as strong and even bigger. Matthews has been attempting to take the fight where his opponent is weakest and has adapted the ability to change things up on the fly. Still, Martin has proven himself against tougher competition than Matthews thus far, leading me to side ever so slightly with the American. Martin via decision
Jim Crute (8-0) vs. Paul Craig (10-2), Light Heavyweight
There is no doubt that Crute is a hell of a prospect. He hits harder than hell, throws both with confidence and in combination, and he’s only 22. No one can deny that he’s faced some of the better opponents on the Australian circuit… but that’s the Australian circuit. The fact that he’s been able to walk through his opposition as easily as he has resulted in him placing a very low emphasis on defense and he probably won’t look to improve that aspect of his game until he gets KO’d himself.
Craig’s narrative was similar, constantly on the offensive until an opponent put him down. The lanky Scot tries a bit harder to stay on the outside at this point with a jab and front kicks being the primary form of rangy offense. Despite his attempts, Craig’s defense is still a sore spot. He’s got some power in the clinch, but it’s his trips and submission skills that has his opponents wary about him. He secured one of the best submissions of the year when he scored a last second – literally – triangle choke off his back in March over Magomed Ankalaev.
Craig showed resilience in his comeback victory over Ankalaev, but he also took a hell of a beating before his Hail Mary victory. Unless Crute has been living under a rock, he’s well aware of Craig’s abilities off his back and shouldn’t make the same mistake Ankalaev did. It should be a successful debut for the Aussie. Crute via TKO of RD2
Suman Mokhtarian (8-0) vs. Sodiq Yusuff (7-1), Bantamweight
Introducing himself to most MMA fans through the 27th season of TUF, Mokhtarian was unable to make it out of the first round despite most believing the season to be full of underwhelming talent. However, it was also noted he was dealing with a knee injury too. A pressure fighter, Mokhtarian doesn’t usually fight in the clinch as much as he did in his lone appearance in TUF. On the flip side, he does look for submissions as aggressively as he showed on the show, a front headlock being a favorite position of his.
Yusuff is the typical product off the Contender Series: a talented youngster who has crushed cans on his way to the Fight Pass series. Yes, he did show good against young talent in Mike Davis to earn his way into the UFC, but he’d be better off marinating longer on the regional scene. Nonetheless, the 25-year old is on the roster and has a fight. He hits hard, shows some developing head movement, and worked over Davis’ leg with a barrage of calf kicks throughout the course of the contest. In fact, he looked more mature than anticipated for someone of his experience.
Yusuff spent a good amount of time on the amateur scene, which explains why he’s more composed than you’d expect out of someone who has been a pro for less than three years. Watching the tape, it’s obvious Yusuff is the more talented of the based solely on physical tools. In a contest in which the combatants are as closely matched as these two, the smart money is to go with the better athlete. That’s what I’m going to do. Yusuff via decision