The Bloody Elbow staff has made its picks for The Ultimate Fighter 28 Finale, and most of us are siding with Kamaru Usman to notch the biggest win of his career and beat Rafael dos Anjos in the main event. Also of note, the majority of the staff is picking Pedro Munhoz to beat Bryan Caraway in a fairly important bantamweight scrap.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Rafael dos Anjos vs. Kamaru Usman
Mookie Alexander: Usman clearly has power in his hands and is showing more of a willingness to bite down on his gumshield and throw, but he’s still not an overwhelmingly threatening striker. RDA has the advantage there. Unfortunately for RDA, Usman is a freakishly strong wrestler and is a willing pressure fighter, which is conclusively a bad stylistic matchup for him. Dos Anjos will have his moments on the feet but I can’t see him consistently stuffing Usman’s takedowns, and he’s not got the dangerous guard game for Usman to worry about. Kamaru Usman by unanimous decision.
Fraser Coffeen: I will be the first to admit I never fully got on board the RDA hype train. Yes, he looked very, very good against both Bendo and Pettis especially. But I feel like that great run came both after a middling mid-tier career, and before a good, not great run that currently sits at 3-3. Usman has the tools to take this, with his physicality, his size, his wrestling… it all screams Usman to me. Kamaru Usman, decision
Victor Rodriguez: Initially, I figured that Usman would overpower RDA with big shots, strong takedowns and using a flypaper approach to smother him and wear him down. The more I think about it, I figure that RDA is still a craftier striker overall, and might be able to remedy the wrestling approach with a few entry denials and some submission opportunities off his back. What worries me is that he’ll get complacent with Usman in his guard, or that he gets a bit greedy on the feet and eats a nasty counter. Smart money should rightfully be on Usman because of youth, athleticism, superior ability to get the fight where he wants it and a hell of a mean streak. But I’m gonna flip my pick to dos Anjos, because his cardio holds up a lot better and he thinks a few steps further ahead than opponents like Kamaru, that rely more on athleticism than feel. I smell an upset here over a five rounder. Rafael dos Anjos by submission.
Zane Simon: I want to believe that this is the hulking wrestle-grinder who just doesn’t quite have a complete enough game to grind RDA the way all the others have... but I can’t. We’ve seen RDA struggle with this style too many times, get backed up too easily too often, to make me feel like a very much ‘in his prime’ Kamaru Usman can’t come out with an aggressive wrestling game and push him backwards. Kamaru Usman by decision.
Staff picking RDA: Harry, Tim, Victor
Staff picking Usman: Bissell, Mookie, Nick, Stephie, Dayne, Fraser, Zane
Justin Frazier vs. Juan Francisco Dieppa
Mookie Alexander: If Dieppa wins this he’ll be the oldest TUF winner ever at 38 years old. This show still exists. Justin Frazier by KO, round 1.
Fraser Coffeen: These are two guys with weird careers. Frazier is a big former Super Heavyweight who has never made it out of round 1. Dieppa had 3 fights around 2010, then took 6 years off, then fought 6 times in 2017 alone, and has now been out for a year. He’s also 38. This is either going to be a fast and violent KO, or it’s going to be absolutely terrible. So... very Heavyweight. Justin Frazier, KO R1
Victor Rodriguez: Meh. Frazier, prolly. I dunno. Hope you guys love watching big sweaty dudes hugging and heaving. Justin Frazier by decision.
Zane Simon: There’s nothing I like about Frazier’s striking enough to make me feel sure he blasts Dieppa out of the gate. At which point there’s nothing about Frazier’s cardio I like for me to pick him down the stretch. But Dieppa’s really not very good, so can’t be shocked if he gets blown out anyway. Juan Francisco Dieppa by decision.
Staff picking Frazier: Harry, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Victor
Staff picking Dieppa: Bissell, Dayne, Zane
Pannie Kianzad vs. Macy Chiasson
Victor Rodriguez: Chiasson is a problem. She’s really gotten a lot better from earlier in her career, and the coaching from TUF seems like it should benefit her. Still, it seems to me that Pannie’s been in there against better opposition and might be able to disengage and engage at will to keep things where they suit her most. Pannie Kianzad by decision.
Zane Simon: Chiasson looks like she has the basic tools to be a good fighter in the future. But, Kianzad is already a pretty good fighter anyway, and she’s never been put away by the kind of occasional-burst power striking that Chiasson delivers. At some point Chiasson will probably hurt Kianzad badly, especially since Kianzad often struggles with bigger, stronger athletes. But if Chiasson can’t get the quick finish, Kianzad is much more well rounded and technically sharper everywhere. Pannie Kianzad by decision.
Staff picking Kianzad: Harry, Bissell, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Fraser, Tim, Victor, Zane
Staff picking Chiasson:
Pedro Munhoz vs. Bryan Caraway
Mookie Alexander: Caraway just seems too slow and not athletic enough to grind out Munhoz. Pedro’s striking defense is still awful but Caraway isn’t a puncher who can punish him, and Munhoz is a slick grappler in his own right. Pedro Munhoz by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: I know it’s not the smartest or sexiest pick, but I just can’t count out Caraway here. He’s a smart enough wrestler that should be able to stay out of submissions and outwork Munhoz by running a more grueling pace. It won’t be pretty, but he can make it happen. Bryan Caraway by decision.
Zane Simon: There’s a good chance that Caraway is just too good a grappler for Munhoz to pick off with a guillotine. And that may mean that Caraway can just grind him for a win. But if not, Munhoz’s busy power striking and tough chin, combined with his submission threat and good scrambling, mean he should be out-working Caraway at range. Pedro Munhoz by decision.
Staff picking Munhoz: Harry, Nick, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Fraser, Tim, Zane
Staff picking Caraway: Bissell, Victor
Darren Stewart vs. Edmen Shahbazyan
Mookie Alexander: Stewart has found his footing in the UFC after a tough start to his career. He’ll be up against the Edmond Tarverdyan-trained…. actually I can stop my analysis right there. Darren Stewart by KO, round 2.
Tim Bissell: After interviewing Stewart a number of times, I get the impression that he has been his own worst enemy throughout much of his UFC tenure up until recently. He’s been candid in admitting it’s taken him a minute to get comfortable under the big lights. As he’s gotten more used to the world of the UFC his performances have improved dramatically and I see that trend continuing versus Shahbazyan. Darren Stewart by TKO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: We can crack all the jokes we want about Shahbazyan being trained by Edmond, but he’s a really good athlete with some great striking. Stewart is far more seasoned and is really hitting his stride, though. Gotta go with the harder hitting veteran on this. Darren Stewart by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Until I see Shahbazyan be better than a one round fighter, I’m not picking him to win against someone tough enough to take a round of damage. Stewart’s never been KO’d and he’s come back for a tough win before. Darren Stewart via TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Stewart: Harry, Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Fraser, Tim, Victor, Zane
Staff picking Shahbazyan:
Ji Yeon Kim vs. Antonina Shevchenko
Victor Rodriguez: Antonina is a threat, a better striker with way more athleticism and better fight IQ. Plus, Kim missed weight by an ugly margin. Easy choice here. Antonina Shevchenko by TKO, round 3.
Zane Simon: Ji Yeon just doesn’t have any variety to her game. Headhunting 1-2’s are fine if a fighter is also kicking and doing clinch work, or wrestling. But it’s the only thing Ji Yeon seems comfortable with. She’s tough and a good athlete, but until she adds more variety to her game, it’s tough to pick her against more technical strikers. Antonina Shevchenko by decision.
Staff picking Kim:
Staff picking Shevchenko: Harry, Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Fraser, Tim, Victor, Zane
Rick Glenn vs. Kevin Aguilar
Victor Rodriguez: Glenn’s always bringing violence. Aguilar’s got potential, but he’s being fed to a wizened lion that has the range, tenacity and submission skills to style on him. Rick Glenn by submission, round 2.
Zane Simon: I’m just not that into Aguilar’s game. A decent counter-puncher with some natural power, but lacking the athleticism or output to really dominate opponents with that style. Aguilar tends to get into wars with everyone. And if you get into a war with Rick Glenn, that’s usually where his insane durability and cardio win out. Rick Glenn by decision.
Staff picking Glenn: Bissell, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Victor, Mookie, Zane
Staff picking Aguilar: Harry, Nick
Joseph Benavidez vs. Alex Perez
Mookie Alexander: Biggest takeaway from the Sergio Pettis fight is how physically declined Joseph Benavidez looked. This is perhaps due to cage rust from the injury, but I don’t think he’s been in great form for awhile, and the loss to Pettis saw him look sloppy on the feet and having lost some of his speed. Losing your speed is almost a death sentence at flyweight, and while Perez is huge for the weight class, he is strong, works the body, has very good wrestling, throws powerful combinations, and might just notch the biggest win of his career on Friday. Alex Perez by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: I get what Mookie’s saying here, but Joe’s not that far in decline. He should still be able to have the answers for the problems Alex presents. Slicker boxing, better wrestling and better overall fight IQ have me leaning in Joe B’s direction. Joseph Benavidez by decision.
Zane Simon: Benavidez should still be diverse enough and fast enough to win this fight, but my gut is telling me that Perez pulls off a serious upset. I love the way Perez starts fast and pressures early, and Benavidez has always been willing to get hit in order to work his counter boxing game, or to jump into the pocket from way outside and directly into strikes. More and more it seems to be getting Joe B. hurt these days. If Perez comes after him early, and Benavidez lets himself eat one to land one, I think Perez comes out ahead in that fight. Alex Perez via TKO, round 1.
Staff picking Benavidez: Harry, Bissell, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Victor
Staff picking Perez: Nick, Mookie, Dayne, Zane
Maurice Greene vs. Michel Batista
Mookie Alexander: You have to love Maurice Greene. He was once the world’s fastest man and had this awesome celebration back in the day. Maurice Greene by KO, round 1.
Fraser Coffeen: Moe the Pirate makes his debut here! Greene is a Chicago native and a Glory veteran, so you know I’m rooting for him. Moe’s experience in Glory didn’t set the world on fire - he won some prelim fights, then went 1-3 on the big show. But those 3 losses all came against solid competition, including a decision loss to Anderson Silva. Not that one. He’s a big man with more technical striking skill than your average MMA Heavyweight. Will that be enough to propel him to the very top of the division? Highly unlikely. But it should get him past this lower tier. Maurice Greene, KO R1
Victor Rodriguez: I’m always hesitant to pick a kickboxer coming into MMA at an early stage, but Maurice Greene is a little further along than a novice and works with Brock Larson for his grappling game. Still not gonna be enough. Have you guys seen Michel Batista fight? That’s one angry Cuban. Goddamn. Batista is ruthless, and unless he gets stunned at a distance, he should be able to run away with this one. Michel Batista by TKO, round 3.
Zane Simon: Batista seems like he likes to wrestle and grapple quickly. I don’t trust Green’s tall man clinch striking at all. Michel Batista by submission, round 1.
Staff picking Greene: Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim
Staff picking Batista: Dayne, Victor, Zane
Leah Letson vs. Julija Stoliarenko
Victor Rodriguez: Letson really made an impression on me with her Invicta debut, where she Cro Copped her way to victory. Since then, she’s become a smarter fighter, knowing when to hang back and when to push forward. Her TUF fight against Bea Malecki was dope, and as talented as Julija is, Letson is a much more complete fighter and better striker. Leah Letson by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Neither woman’s athleticism is a great difference maker, but I trust Letson’s nuts-and-bolts MMA pressure game more than I trust Stoliarenko’s guard pulling aggressive grappling game. Leah Letson via decision.
Staff picking Letson: Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Fraser, Tim, Victor, Zane
Staff picking Stoliarenko:
Tim Means vs. Ricky Rainey
Tim Bissell: Means told me he has a ‘vendetta’ against himself to prove he is a well-rounded fighter. He said this means he has been working more on his wrestling and top game. I think Rainey presents a very manageable task for Means and one which might allow him to exhibit those more well-rounded abilities. Because of that, and because I favour Means getting the win here if the fight does end up purely on the feet, I don’t see how ‘The Dirty Bird’ fails to get the W here. Tim Means by unanimous decision.
Victor Rodriguez: God, I just hope we don’t have to hear “Tim Means Business” yet again. Seriously, guys. It’s old. It’s tired. It’s… basically me. Let it die. Oh yeah, Means is going to outwork Rainey with pressure and clinchwork. Tim Means by TKO.
Zane Simon: It just doesn’t feel like Rainey is a technical enough or busy enough striker to fight at the range and with the style he wants to use. Give decent opposition that much time and space to read you and they’ll usually find your gaps. Means has had some rough decisions lately, but I just don’t think Rainey has the power to put him away, or the offensive consistency to overwhelm him. Tim Means via decision.
Staff picking Means: Harry, Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Fraser, Tim, Victor, Zane
Staff picking Rainey:
Roosevelt Roberts vs. Darrell Horcher
Victor Rodriguez: Nothing against Roberts, but I just don’t see him staying upright against a mean wrestler like Horcher. Darrell Horcher by decision.
Zane Simon: Roberts may be able to overwhelm Horcher with wildman offense, but I feel more willing to bet he gets caught by a sharp counterpunch than that he can just swamp Horcher in volume. Darrell Horcher via KO, round 2.
Staff picking Roberts: Nick, Dayne
Staff picking Horcher: Harry, Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Fraser, Tim, Victor, Zane
Raoni Barcelos vs. Chris Gutierrez
Mookie Alexander: Barcelos has me sold just on that wild win over Kurt Holobaugh. This doesn’t figure to be very competitive. Raoni Barcelos by TKO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Gutierrez is a good, well put together fighter, but his emphasis on defense and caution doesn’t feel like it contains the kind of necessary deterrence to keep Barcelos from bulldozing him. Too much power, too much consistent aggression, too much variety. Raoni Barcelos by decision.
Staff picking Barcelos: Harry, Nick, Bissell, Mookie, Stephie, Dayne, Fraser, Tim, Victor, Zane
Staff picking Gutierrez: