For clarity, I’m assuming this is what most of the preliminary contests are as the UFC hasn’t finalized what fights are main card and which ones are on the prelims. In other words, they’re going to add a fight or two onto the card from the TUF cast. Why they do this, I don’t know. It’s not like fans are clamoring for another John Gunther to be added to the roster. Whatever prelims are added will be on the main card preview tomorrow with the note that they will be on the prelims.
Now that the disclaimer is on the way, I found myself surprised to admit there are a few contests worth paying attention to. Well…the fight I find most intriguing is, of course, taking place within the division the UFC is looking to eliminate. Perennial contender Joseph Benavidez appears to be on the backside of his career after never touching the gold. Keep in mind we all said that about Michael Bisping when the Brit became champ. Just saying… Anyway, he’s looking to turn away what was one of the flyweight division’s best up-and-comers since…Henry Cejudo? Bottom line: Alex Perez is looking good. Plus, Rick Glenn and Tim Means are always worth watching. These prelims may not be too bad….
The FS1 prelims begin at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT on Friday. The Fight Pass prelims begin… umm…. That hasn’t been released yet. Damn the TUF Finales for not having the cards finalized until less than 48 hours beforehand!
Rick Glenn (21-5-1) vs. Kevin Aguilar (15-1), Featherweight
It hasn’t taken too much time for Glenn to establish himself as one of more exciting action fighters on the roster. It isn’t that he has overwhelming power. He doesn’t. He isn’t a grappling wiz either, nor is he a superb athlete. It’s that he tirelessly moves forward looking to unleash his brand of offense on his opposition, often without thought of what his opposition might throw back at him. Think of a slightly less athletic Diego Sanchez in his brawling prime. Where Glenn has been falling short is in his takedown defense as opposed to his lack of striking defense.
Aguilar is one of the few products of the Contender Series who is entering the UFC without the need for additional seasoning as he is a hard hitter who has been a notable name on the regional scene for the last five years. Given he doesn’t excel in a single phase the way many of the UFC’s best do, he may struggle a bit more than most expect despite being well-rounded. Regardless, Aguilar has more pop than Glenn and times his takedowns well enough he should be able to take down the Team Alpha Male representative should he begin to be overwhelmed by Glenn’s volume.
This isn’t an easy contest to pick. Glenn and Aguilar are very similar, Glenn being a bit more resilient while Aguilar having the better physical tools to work with. I’m leaning towards Glenn as he has faced a higher level of competition than Aguilar. That doesn’t mean Aguilar has been facing chumps. Few on the regional scene consistently faced better opposition than he did. But going to battle with the likes of Evan Dunham and Dennis Bermudez lends more credibility than Damon Jackson and Thanh Le. Glenn via decision
Joseph Benavidez (25-5) vs. Alex Perez (21-4), Flyweight
With the departure of Demetrious Johnson from the organization, Benavidez is undoubtedly the senior member of the flyweight division. While there is some honor in that distinction, it isn’t necessarily complimentary as it also means Benavidez is on the decline. No longer an elite athlete, Benavidez has struggled to secure takedowns that used to be a staple of his arsenal. That has left him needing to rely on his striking far more than he used to. While Benavidez is still one of the better strikers in the division – few can pile on the volume as consistently – his power that saw him secure a pair of brutal KO’s on the way to earning a rematch with Johnson has seemingly vanished. Having to rely more on guile at this stage, Benavidez now is forced to outpoint his opponents almost solely on his ability to stand and trade.
That could prove to be difficult against the likes of Perez. Unleashing a torrent of offense that saw him land 84 significant strikes in less than four minutes against Jose Torres, Perez appears to be hitting his stride right as the UFC has opted to eliminate the division. There is risk in Perez’s approach if he continues to focus on piling up the volume as his defense consists of leaving his opponent so overwhelmed that they can’t throw back. If his opponent can find a respite from the continual attack, Perez is there to be hit, not to mention the fact that he can’t conceivably maintain that pace for a full fifteen minutes.
Full disclosure, I was one of the few who believed Benavidez had long ago earned a third crack at Johnson. That never came and now it appears Benavidez is too far past his prime that he’d be able to pick up a title shot despite Johnson no longer being the champion even if the division were to survive. He is no doubt the toughest challenge Perez has faced in his career and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him outwit the up-and-coming Perez. However, Perez, the best talent to emerge from the Contender Series thus far, has so much momentum and confidence, I’m favoring the youngster to outwork the longtime mainstay of the division. Perez via decision
Roosevelt Roberts (6-0) vs. Darrell Horcher (13-3), Lightweight
The youthful Roberts, another product of the Contender Series, got his call up to the UFC too soon. Just six fights into his career without a signature win, it was Roberts’ constant pursuit of the finish that encouraged Dana White to give him a contract. No surprise given White’s love of exciting fights as opposed to competence, Roberts has a preference of the front headlock, looking to sink in some sort of a submission. Though he’s a solid wrestler with relentless GnP, he’s also incredibly wild on the feet with lousy defense.
Horcher hasn’t been quite the same since surviving a brutal car accident. However, that was also about 30 months ago at this point, perhaps a long enough period of time that he has fully recovered. Prior to the accident, Horcher was a stout wrestle-boxer with solid power in his left hand. Since then, Horcher rarely looks to go to the ground and has been reluctant to throw leather.
There aren’t many people on the roster I’d pick Roberts to secure a win over. However, Horcher is one of them. His hesitance and declining takedown defense are exactly the combination that would make one prone to Roberts aggression. Though Horcher sniping Roberts with a powerful left wouldn’t be a surprise, Roberts outworking Horcher appears more likely. Roberts via decision
Tim Means (27-10-1, 1 NC) vs. Ricky Rainey (13-5), Welterweight
One of the better action fighters of the welterweight division for a number of years, Means has hit a rough patch, notching just a single victory in his last five appearances. Normally one of the busier fighters on the roster, Means took an uncharacteristic nine-month sabbatical in hopes of getting himself back on track. He’s a stinging puncher who attacks at a rapid pace with the clinch being the most dangerous area of his arsenal. Means has also made it a point in the past he can wrestle and grapple some, though it needs to be the right opponent for him find success in that field.
Some may believe Rainey is an ideal opponent for Means to display his prowess on the ground as Rainey hasn’t found much success on the mat. However, Rainey’s opponents haven’t found a lot of success either, Rainey never having been submitted in his career. Regardless of his exploits on the ground, Rainey’s biggest advantage over his opponents has always been his freakishly long 77” reach. Rainey picks his opponents apart with his single punches and kicks, though he isn’t terrible in the clinch either.
Rainey is better suited to be a veteran test for up-and-coming prospects on the regional scene as opposed to plying his trade on the UFC level. That doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of snatching a victory or two at this level, but Means isn’t a prospect in need of experience. In fact, Means has seen it all. Rainey doesn’t provide anything Means hasn’t proven capable of disposing. Means via TKO of RD2
Raoni Barcelos (12-1) vs. Chris Gutierrez (12-2-1), Featherweight
Barcelos reminded fans why he was once upon a time a highly regarded up-and-comer in his UFC debut, going toe-to-toe with Kurt Holobaugh before securing a late KO. Barcelos isn’t the most technical striker, but possesses a lot of power and has improved his movement over the years. Despite his growth in his striking, Barcelos’ bread and butter is still his grappling as he is a former no-gi world champion. His willingness to trade fisticuffs is questionable given his accolades, particularly given his ability to wrest his opponent to the mat has steadily improved.
Gutierrez made a hell of an impression himself about a month ago when he easily disposed of Ray Rodriguez at LFA 52. The performance was enough to get him a UFC contract. Gutierrez has a well-rounded game now that he shored up his wrestling. He’s become particularly noted for his low kicks, having secured a TKO finish when his opponent could no longer stand as he commonly sweeps their feet out from under them. Gutierrez isn’t a particularly hard hitter otherwise, but can push a hard pace.
Gutierrez’s quick turnaround is a bit concerning, especially given he has yet to face someone of Barcelos’ ilk. Regardless, Gutierrez is tough – he’s never been finished -- and could very well take a decision on the basis of being the busier fighter. Despite that possibility, Barcelos is the safer pick in this contest. Barcelos via submission of RD2