Well... the Bloody Elbow staff unanimously agrees that Tito Ortiz will finally be able to beat Chuck Liddell. This is a real sentence I’ve typed up in 2018. Luckily for you, Victor Rodriguez has some analysis for the rest of the main card if you’re curious about the other fights on the lineup.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Chuck Liddell vs. Tito Ortiz
Anton Tabuena: I hope they’re getting paid well, because this is just sad and they should’ve stayed retired. Chuck Liddell lost his durability and chin before 2010 and he is not gaining that back eight years later. It goes without saying, but the 48-year-old who hasn’t fought in so long probably lost his speed, reaction time, and timing as well. I think Ortiz easily drops him on the feet and follows up with even more depressing punches on the ground right after. Tito Ortiz by KO.
Mookie Alexander: I can’t do it. I’m not picking Chuck Liddell to win in 2018, even if he has that look in his eye. It’s been eight years since his last fight, eleven years since his last win, and he’s a thousand times more shopworn than Tito, who fought as recently as 2017. The worst outcome is Chuck gets KO’d by Tito on the feet, which would just be tragic. I see Tito instead going for takedowns and bludgeoning a faded Liddell with ground-and-pound while Oscar De La Hoya is ignoring the fight and texting Don Frye and Mark Coleman to see if they want to headline the next Golden Boy MMA card. Tito Ortiz by TKO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: The most surprising thing in the lead up to all of this for me has been the lack of Titoisms thus far. The unintentional comedy duties seem to have fallen entirely on Oscar de la Hoya. But yeah, Tito’s last fight wasn’t that long ago, whereas Chuck’s been out of the game for almost a decade. Look, if Liddell were doing the GSP thing where he’s still training and sparring guys from time to time (even if it’s just some light rolling, etc), then I’d probably not object to much to this even happening. Sure, Chuck trained a bit with Randy Couture a while back, yet that’s not the same as staying active year-round. The more concerning aspect of this is that we are in the age of the naked and blatant cash-grab. And Tito has to win this fight, because otherwise he’d lose to a shot, washed-up guy that’s pushing damn near 50 and didn’t put on gloves again until he lost his cush executive gig at UFC HQ. For Liddell, enlisting and working with Antonio McKee is a good step. Focusing on what he does well and ensuring he has good sparring partners is another. It’s still not enough and while I won’t discourage anyone from ordering this card, I can’t sleep easy going around recommending it, either. Tito stands for a bit to indulge Chuck, boosts his confidence once he’s somewhat ahead and works takedowns to commit elderly abuse. Nobody will be better for this. I don’t make the rules. Tito Ortiz by TKO, ground strikes, round 2.
Zane Simon: Regret.
Staff picking Liddell:
Staff picking Ortiz: Nick, Bissell, Victor, Stephie, Dayne, Mookie, Anton, Zane
Deron Winn vs. Tom Lawlor
Victor Rodriguez: I’mma get this out of the way early: smart money should absolutely be on Filthy Tom. But Deron Winn is a problem. This cat trains at the Dethrone camp, is an accomplished and decorated wrestler that’s sharpening his hands. No, really. Thing is, Winn is only 5’8 fighting at light heavyweight. That’s not a typo. Dude should realistically be fighting at lightweight, or at least welterweight. He can take a punch, he can wrestle his ass off and he’s got great reactions with good instincts when strikes are involved to mix up with grappling. Tom’s experience should win the day, but Winn could very well have a chance to win big here. Will this be too much for Winn too soon? Yeah, actually . I’ll still take the reckless underdog pick here and back the guy with the hot hand and brighter future. Deron Winn by TKO.
Zane Simon: Long layoff for Lawlor as he comes back from a USADA suspension, but before he left he was a rugged brawler with some shocking one-punch power and enough wrestling and grappling to see him through most situations. I think that’ll still be enough to handle Deron Winn. Tom Lawlor by decision.
Staff picking Winn: Victor
Staff picking Lawlor: Nick, Bissell, Stephie, Dayne, Anton, Zane, Mookie
Gleison Tibau vs. Efrain Escudero
Mookie Alexander: This would be a prelim on a UFC Fight Night on Spike card back in 2011. Somehow they’ve never fought each other until now, but Tibau Prime should still have enough in the tank to win a grinding, ugly battle against Escudero, who probably won’t be able to submit him and doesn’t have the power to really rock him. Gleison Tibau by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Tibau fights ugly, has a ton of strength, and as one commenter noted here ages ago, is technically part farming equipment. Efrain has decent boxing and a good submission game, but Tibau’s control is what led him to have that absurd winning record in the UFC, and I don’t see that being different here. You have to be a very explosive striker with split-second perfect timing to nail this dude’s jaw and put him to sleep, and as much as I like Escudero, I don’t think he’s the guy to do it here. Gleison Tibau by decision.
Zane Simon: I kinda have to agree with Vic here. I’m just not sure that Escudero has the size or physicality to bully Tibau and the last time he KO’d anyone was... 2014? I know Tibau is on a skid, but I don’t think Escudero represents any of the problems that put Tibau on that skid. Gleison Tibau by decision.
Staff picking Tibau: Nick, Victor, Stephie, Anton, Zane, Mookie
Staff picking Escudero: Bissell, Dayne
Walel Watson vs. Ricardo Palacios
Victor Rodriguez: Palacios hits hard as hell and can take some damage, plus his wrestling is fine. It’s not exceptional, it’s just fine. He’s more apt at using it defensively to strike, and he’s pretty damn good at striking. He’s unfortunately impatient, and a more varied striker like Watson could end up picking him apart. Watson’s also likely to get sparked when he least expects it, but I’m not sure I can trust Palacios to finally be consistent even with a move up from 135 (a weight he could never make comfortably, if at all). My brain says Watson, but I’m feeling reckless. Ricky probably hurts him early but doesn’t finish him - either way he’s got some fun violence in his back pocket.. Going with Palacios by decision.
Staff picking Watson:
Staff picking Palacios: Nick, Bissell, Victor, Stephie, Dayne, Anton, Zane, Mookie
Jay Silva vs. Oscar Cota
Victor Rodriguez: Silva’s had a wild career, and finally deciding to stay at heavyweight hasn’t been that bad for him. He’s still got a good boxing base and a great sprawl. Cota’s largely reliant on giant overhand rights leading into bodylocks, then dragging his opponent and working sloppy submission attempts. It’s not pretty, but I’m guessing he’s probably repped by Tito’s team or something. Silva should be able to see those big swings coming and outwork Cota, wearing him down but not finishing him. That and veteran savvy should make this a lock. Jay Silva by decision.
Staff picking Silva: Nick, Bissell, Victor, Stephie, Dayne, Anton, Zane, Mookie
Staff picking Cota: