While I can’t recommend awakening early – or staying up late – to partake in the opening contests of UFC Beijing, I can state with a straight face there are a few contests that pique my interest. As hard as it may be to believe, China has produced several female prospects, a couple of them offering plenty of promise. Given the state of Chinese MMA just a few years ago, it’s amazing to see they have several women who could become major players with the right development. I’ll be the first to admit that I felt the UFC was jumping the gun in trying to make inroads to China at the beginning of this decade. Perhaps they were, but the dividends being reaped are proving to be worthwhile.
The preliminary contests of UFC Beijing being at 3:15 AM ET/12:15 AM PT on Saturday on Fight Pass.
Song Kenan (14-4) vs. Alex Morono (14-5, 1 NC), Welterweight
Before we get too excited about Kenan opening his UFC career with two victories, let’s keep in mind that his victories have come over Bobby Nash and Hector Aldana, who have combined for exactly zero wins in the Octagon. That isn’t to say Kenan is completely devoid of talent, but let’s just say he’ll be running into a wall very soon if the UFC ups his level of competition much higher. Regardless, Kenan’s raw power isn’t anything to be scoffed at. What is worrisome though is his utter lack of takedown defense.
No one will mistake Morono for being a wrestling juggernaut by any means. However, he is relentless in all facets of fighting, including his pursuit of takedowns. That also means that he’s determined to get his own brand of striking in when he chooses to stand and that means he’s eminently hittable. In general, his chin has held up reasonably well, but it has been cracked and Morono’s power is merely adequate. He’ll be playing with fire if he opts to trade fisticuffs with Kenan for too long.
I do get a bit of a Kiichi Kunimoto vibe out of Kenan in that he’s swinging above his average and will continue to do so until it’s blatantly obvious he has no chance of winning. Morono isn’t that caliber of opponent. However, Morono does have a deeper bag of tricks and picking a fight on a vibe is never good analysis. Even though the vibe I’m getting says I’ll regret my choice, I’m going with Morono. Morono via decision
Wu Yanan (8-2) vs. Lauren Mueller (5-0), Women’s Flyweight
Yanan’s UFC debut was a disappointment. Not so much because she lost, but because she couldn’t stop a takedown for the life of her. Then again, perhaps it shouldn’t have come as a surprise given Yanan’s record consisting of one can after another being crushed by the sanda practitioner. At 22, Yanan does have sufficient power in her punches and kicks that I don’t begrudge the UFC for taking a look at her. Her aggression doesn’t help her remain vertical against those looking to take her to the ground, though dropping down to 125 may make a positive difference.
Another factor working in Yanan’s favor is Mueller generally prefers to stand and trade. What isn’t in Yanan’s favor is Mueller is pretty good at it. Even worse, Mueller is perfectly capable of going to the ground if she so chooses. Mueller has built on her skill set with every fight, showing some slick head movement in her last bout with Shana Dobson. She still has some adjustments to make in her technique as she looked far more comfortable brawling as opposed to picking her opponent apart.
Though Yanan has promise, I feel the UFC would have been well served allowing her to marinate a bit longer on the regionals prior to signing her last year. The amount of wins her opponents owned at the time she faced them: 13. All but one of those victories were owned by opponents who beat her. While I do believe Yanan will look better at her new home, Mueller’s physicality will thwart Yanan’s hopes for success. Mueller via TKO, RD3
Hu Yaozong (3-1) vs. Rashad Coulter (8-4), Heavyweight
For all of his shortcomings – and they are plentiful – Coulter knows how to put on a hell of a show. The undersized heavyweight has been finished before the second round was up in his three UFC contests, usually fighting from behind before his opponent puts the finishing touches on him. And yet, he’s here getting a fourth chance for that elusive UFC victory thanks to his willingness to eat a punch in order to give one. Coulter does have some solid pop in his punches and good hand speed, but his lack of size has limited him.
Yaozong is only on the roster because he was willing to step up on very short notice last year in the UFC’s trip to China last fall. Nothing in his performance impressed as he was taken down time and again by Cyril Asker. Asker is tough, but you probably shouldn’t be in the UFC is Asker dominates you for a round-and-a-half before the referee calls the contest off.
Yaozong’s only chance is to attack Coulter’s legs. Yaozong has shown the willingness to throw them and Coulter has proven to be prone to that attack. If that’s your best course for victory, you’re in a world of hurt. The youngster may have some promise, but he’s a very long way from being a finished product. The UFC is basically gift wrapping a victory for Coulter. Coulter via TKO, RD2
Weili Zhang (17-1) vs. Jessica Aguilar (20-6), Women’s Strawweight
Aguilar’s first UFC win was a long time coming. With a career spanning well over a decade and at one time considered the top strawweight in the world, a victory in the Octagon represented a major check on her list of career accomplishments. In fact, Aguilar looked revitalized against Jodie Esquibel, putting together slick boxing combos in a fast-paced contest. That’s a major change from her previous contest where the only thing she was consistently putting together was takedown attempts. Aguilar’s long career has taken a toll on her body and she’s on the smaller end for the weight division, so there’s reason to believe her performance against Esquibel would be the exception rather than the rule at this point.
For those of you who remember the disaster that was TUF China, it may be a surprise to hear Zhang was a highly anticipated import when she made her debut against Danielle Taylor. The switch stance fighter bullied the smaller Taylor in the clinch while throwing heavy hooks and low kicks when Taylor was able to escape her clutches. Zhang may not have finished Taylor, but the power that she has used to end over half of her victories was on display as Taylor showed a reluctance to wade back into Zhang’s striking range after being hurt early in the contest.
This is a great contest to see if Zhang is the real deal. Aguilar can’t do some of the things she used to do, but she is also savvy enough to steal away a contest she shouldn’t have any business winning thanks to her years of experience. Plus, Zhang’s level of competition can’t touch what Aguilar has faced over the years. Despite that, Zhang is the type of physical specimen that Aguilar has been falling short against. Aguilar has never been finished. Though I’m not betting on it, I wouldn’t be surprised if it happens here. Zhang via decision
Yan Xiaonan (9-1, 1 NC) vs. Syuri Kondo (6-1), Women’s Strawweight
While it appears to be a longshot that either Xiaonan or Kondo become major players at strawweight, there’s a good possibility these two put on a memorable show. Both like to stand and trade fisticuffs while pushing a fast pace.
The favorite is clearly Xiaonan. The first Chinese woman ever signed to the UFC, she’s picked up a pair of decisive victories in her first two contests. Attacking in bursts, Xiaonan packs a hell of a punch while quickly getting out of the way of her opponent’s return fire. Her takedown defense has been better than expected as well, though her overall wrestling and grappling still has many unanswered questions outside of the Chinese regional scene.
Despite possessing a kickboxing background – she was champion in the Krush organization – Kondo has employed grinding against the fence more than she has fighting out in the open. Perhaps that has something to do with her time as a professional wrestler, utilizing her physicality while exposing her lack of power as little as possible. Regardless, Kondo knows how to pressure effectively and wrack up the volume in a hurry when she can’t get her hands on her opponent.
While Xiaonan owns a decisive edge in the power department, it’s rare to see KOs in the strawweight division. That could mean it doesn’t come into play at all. Kondo has proven to be a quick study, having turned pro just over two years ago. However, she still has a lot to learn whereas Xiaonan has been training stateside at times. Xiaonan’s experience makes the difference. Xiaonan via decision
Kevin Holland (13-4) vs. John Phillips (21-7, 1 NC), Middleweight
There were once a decent amount of MMA fans who were excited about Phillips’ UFC debut as he developed a reputation of an exciting brawler across the European scene. When the day finally arrived, Phillips couldn’t have been more disappointing, scoring zero significant offense as Charles Byrd took him down and put on a textbook showing of how to pass guard into a RNC victory. Had Demian Maia done that to him, it would be one thing. But Charles Byrd!? If Phillips has done something about his porous takedown defense, the southpaw is a dangerous pocket puncher with 86% of his victories coming via KO/TKO.
Holland made his debut with less fanfare, though he quickly picked up a lot of fans in his charismatic performance against Thiago Santos. Talking to Santos and himself throughout the contest, Holland displayed a hell of a chin with some creativity that makes him a danger at any point in the contest. Holland attempted numerous submission attempts that were only made possible thanks to his 81” reach, keeping the Brazilian on his toes once Santos realized what he was dealing with. On the feet, Holland is a rangy striker with occasional power.
Even though Phillips’ loss to Byrd was embarrassing, it doesn’t take anything away from him being a dangerous striker. If Holland is unable to find the takedowns, he’s going to have a hell of a time surviving Phillips heavy leather. Regardless, Phillips’ ground game is severely lacking and it’s unlikely to make significant gains 13 years into his career. Holland will probably need to get it to the ground just one time... Holland via submission, RD1
Pingyuan Liu (14-4) vs. Martin Day (9-2), Bantamweight
Day competed on the first season of the Contender Series at flyweight, but is trying to prove his mettle at bantamweight now that the organization appears to be doing away with the division formerly home to the most dominant champion the UFC has seen…at least statistically. Nonetheless, Day is very much the type of fighter that Dana White prefers, slogging a large volume of heavy kicks that are intended to produce a highlight reel finish. His lack of a ground game is a concern, but shouldn’t be too much of a worry against Liu.
It isn’t that Liu was a terrible grappler in China. It’s that his competition in China was underdeveloped. Liu was able to survive Damian Stasiak’s ground assault upon his UFC debut, though few would call Stasiak a ground expert. Nonetheless, Liu showed his striking abilities have transferred over well enough to the higher level of competition. There are still plenty of concerns about his defense, but his power is prominent enough that he could make some waves…small waves, but waves nonetheless.
I’m not crazy about the long-term future of either of these competitors. I’d like Day’s prospects more if the UFC was keeping flyweight around as his lanky frame would be a greater weapon against smaller opponents, but it is what it is. Nonetheless, the American has consistently faced better competition. The same could have been said of Stasiak, but I’m going with Day nonetheless. Day via decision
Su Mudaerji (10-2) vs. Louis Smolka (14-5), Bantamweight
Even though his former home of flyweight is going to go the way of the dodo bird soon enough, it’s good to see Smolka back in the UFC. Previously exiting on a four-fight losing streak, Smolka admitted alcohol played a part in his banishment from the promotion and claims to have tackled that issue. Moving to bantamweight could prove beneficial for the Hawaiian as his length should help cover for any other physical loss he might experience. Smolka has also gotten a bum rap as a wrestler, but it’s also a curiosity how many of his opponent’s takedown attempts he allowed simply because he feel confident off his back.
Mudaerjji is a major mystery as there isn’t a lot of footage available. The amount of KO’s on his record – eight of his ten victories -- indicates he throws with ill intentions. There have been issues with his technique, but there is a very strong likelihood he’s tightened up in that department.
Mudaerjii is a massive mystery. There just isn’t enough available information to make an educated estimate on how this contest goes. Given what we know about Smolka, he would seem to be a guy who would beat most fighters making their organizational debut against him. Add that Mudaerji is a natural flyweight as well and it feels like picking Mudaerji would prove irresponsible. Smolka via decision