The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio card in Argentina, and to my surprise, everyone is going with Santiago Ponzinbbio to defeat the quite formidable Neil Magny in the main event. As for the co-main event, only Fraser Coffeen and Dayne Fox are backing Darren Elkins to best Ricardo Lamas.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he’s going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Neil Magny vs. Santiago Ponzinibbio
Mookie Alexander: I just have too many flashbacks to the Lorenz Larkin fight for Magny. Ponzinibbio’s takedown defense is likely going to be the deciding factor here, as Magny is just too hittable in prolonged striking exchanges, and the Ponz has improved significantly since his own loss to Larkin a few years ago. I’m going with Ponzinibbio to win one in front of his home fans. Santiago Ponzinibbio by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: My guess is that Ponzinibbio’s willingness to be crafty and try to stick and move and to rely heavily on his boxing game will make him just a little too predictable to KO a usually very durable Neil Magny. But with neither man being a really strong wrestler, I’m also willing to be that Ponzinibbio’s power will show in close rounds that could otherwise go either way. If he gets stuck way out at range all fight, this could be a bit boring and Magny could take a decision on Volume, but I’ll take Ponz to push forward enough to make it count. Santiago Ponzinibbio by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: More than anything else, it seems that Magny’s wrestling approach and Ponzinibbio’s defense will be the biggest things to stand out here. Santiago’s boxing is crisp and he hits hard, plus we’ve seen Magny get ruined with striking in the past. As good an athlete as Magny is, Ponzinibbio is faster, stronger, and has that quick muscle twitch. His cardio is probably the most questionable thing, and what Magny could be most likely to exploit. Still gotta go with the guy that has the hot hand and blazing knockout power. Santiago Ponzinibbio by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Magny:
Staff picking Ponzinibbio: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Harry, Mookie, Zane, Victor, Fraser, Stephie, Dayne
Ricardo Lamas vs. Darren Elkins
Mookie Alexander: A great battle between two guys who often just pluck victories out of thin air in fights that they are losing. Elkins is the gold standard for “how the hell did he win that?” whereas Lamas is just a phenomenal opportunist. Lamas getting outwrestled and physically outmuscled by Mirsad Bektic has to be cause for concern here, but I don’t think Elkins possesses the same stylistic difficulties that the more explosive athlete Bektic provides. Also… Elkins has taken a shitload of punishment, and that’s got to pile up at some point. Lamas keeps it standing and outstrikes Elkins. Ricardo Lamas by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I kind of feel like I have to pick Lamas. A few years ago, I would have been certain that his opportunistic finishing instincts would be rip Elkins apart as he failed to bring his jab hand back, stood tall with his chin up, and generally just tried to be an overwhelming mess. But, now I’m less sure. Lamas’ recent losses have had him looking less able to turn a fight in a moment than ever, and if he’s slipping away from that, he’s often been a fighter that loses rounds right up until he gets a finish. Elkins could be busy enough to take the fight if Lamas can’t punish him. But, Elkins is just right there to be punished, and Lamas is very hard to control on the mat. Ricardo Lamas by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: I still feel that Elkins has better wrestling, but he hasn’t been as good at adapting it for MMA the way Lamas has. Besides, Lamas has that incredibly slick submission game, and has demonstrated himself to be a better and more complete striker with great cardio. Seeing as the reach and size aren’t that disparate in this fight, it has to be Lamas all day. Ricardo Lamas by TKO, round 3.
Fraser Coffeen: This is a brutal fight for me to pick, as these are two of my most go-to reliable picks. I often feel like I see people picking against them, decide to go with them anyway, and get rewarded. So what to do when they face each other? Well, I guess I tend to expect both to defy the odds, so… Darren Elkins, SD
Staff picking Lamas: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Harry, Mookie, Zane, Victor, Stephie
Staff picking Elkins: Fraser, Dayne
Khalil Rountree vs. Johnny Walker
Mookie Alexander: Johnny Walker? Are they trolling us? Khalil Rountree by KO, round 1.
Zane Simon: Rountree’s limitations are pretty obvious these days. He throws everything with speed and power, and gasses for it. And he stands too flat footed to stuff takedowns. Neither of those are things that Walker seems like he has the tools to trouble. Also an early finisher, Walker’s tall and a bit lackadasical at range, and does his best work in the clinch, where he can impose his frame on someone. That seems like just the right kind of style for Rountree to find his chin waiting right up on a pedestal. Khalil Rountree via KO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Rountree has his faults, but he’s better than the guys Walker’s beaten on the Brazilian scene and a far more intimidating athlete. Can’t pick Walker on this no matter what. Khalil Rountree by TKO.
Staff picking Rountree: Bissell, Nick, Harry, Mookie, Zane, Victor, Fraser, Stephie, Dayne
Staff picking Walker:
Guido Cannetti vs. Marlon Vera
Zane Simon: Cannetti is wild to a fault. He has power and some decent technique in his kicking game, but he’ll just throw himself into any potential opening he sees, whatever the results. It tends to mean he slows down, and makes a lot of mistakes. Vera is a slow starter and often gives opponents way too much free time and space to work with, but he’s also tough as nails, and highly adept at adjusting and picking off openings as they come at him. That should make for a strong late rounds performance. Marlon Vera via TKO, Round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: Vera’s come such a long way from where he was on his TUF run, with smarter striking, more technical overall game and yet still has a tricky guard with good scrambles. Canetti’s at a reach disadvantage and won’t have the takedown chops to make it work for him here. Marlon Vera by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Cannetti:
Staff picking Vera: Bissell, Nick, Harry, Mookie, Zane, Victor, Fraser, Stephie, Dayne
Cezar Ferreira vs. Ian Heinisch
Zane Simon: Heinisch looks decent if under-polished. A wrestle-boxer who favors a heavy overhand right, and tends to use takedowns as a way to generate quick offense rather than grinding control. But, he also tends to defend shots with the guillotine and immediately give up his back when he hits the mat. Ferreira’s chin will always be a problem, but he’s gotten much much better at protecting it and fighting smart. If Heinisch gives him an opportunity for top control, he’ll take it and make Heinisch miserable for it. Cezar Ferreira via submission, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: I should go with Cezar for similar reasons that I’m going with Rountree, but Heinisch has good wrestling and can show flashes of really good and technical Muay Thai. He’s also at a size and reach disadvantage, but he can take a hell of a shot. Mutante is good, but he spaces out on fight IQ, where Ian stays much more consistent. Probably not the most sensible thing, but Reckless Underdog Pick of the Week goes to Ian Heinisch by decision.
Staff picking Mutante: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Stephie, Dayne
Staff picking Heinisch: Victor
Cynthia Calvillo vs. Poliana Botelho
Mookie Alexander: Well… that weight cut doesn’t look good for Calvillo. Beyond that, this is a matter of who imposes their game better. Calvillo is an excellent scrambler and a serviceable striker, whereas Botelho has serious power for a strawweight, plus body kicks from hell. If Calvillo can’t get the takedowns, she might be able to nick the fight on volume striking, but otherwise Botelho is going to land some heavy strikes and potentially sap her cardio with those aforementioned body kicks. If this goes go the ground, Botelho is going to be in deep trouble. I’m going the other way here, which is Poliana Botelho by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Calvillo looking like death on the scales isn’t great, but there’s no telling how well a fighter will bounce back over 24 hours. We’ve seen too many athletes do just fine off awful weight cuts. And beyond that, this is a matchup that really favors her. Botelho hits hard, but she’s a notably structureless striker, throwing a lot of range kicks and the rare wild overhand right. She’s easy to pressure and push to the cage, and while she can hold her own there, Calvillo is a level above the pack with her wrestling & grappling game. Calvillo is also a solid counter-puncher, if a little too happy to trust volume over execution. If Botelho wings too many ugly punches Calvillo’s way, she could do a solid job slipping and coming back with 2-3 punches of her own all fight. Cynthia Calvillo by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Woof. That weigh-in video looked horrible. That’s not to say that she can’t be the better fighter (which she seems to be), but it’s such an uphill climb that.. well, it’s tough to see how that’ll go. Despite her better skillset and athleticism, I can’t see someone winning after that debacle. Poliana Botelho by decision.
Fraser Coffeen: I’m not picking anyone who looked that bad at weigh-in. Poliana Botelho, KO R1
Staff picking Calvillo: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Harry, Zane, Dayne
Staff picking Botelho: Mookie, Fraser, Stephie, Victor
Michel Prazeres vs. Bartosz Fabinski
Zane Simon: Fabinski’s size could be a huge issue. He’s 6 inches taller than Prazeres. But, his game is just so one dimensional, and of a sort that’s never really dominated Prazeres before, that it’s hard, even with that size for me to trust that this is the wrestler that just takes the Brazilian down and grinds him for 15 minutes. Prazeres is bricked up, and a solid, if unexciting kickboxer who has learned a lot about regulating his output to save energy. He just does not lose that often, especially not since he got his cardio under control. Michel Prazeres by decision.
Victor Rodriguez: Like I said on the Care/Don’t Care this week, I haven’t really seen anything impressive enough to stand out from Fabinski. Prazeres should be able to Tibau his way to victory here. Michel Prazeres by Troll Strength™.
Staff picking Prazeres: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Harry, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Stephie, Victor, Dayne
Staff picking Fabinski:
Alexandre Pantoja vs. Ulka Sasaki
Mookie Alexander: Sasaki is a funky grappler who otherwise is outgunned everywhere else… and arguably in the grappling department, too. Pantoja is just too athletic and well-rounded for Sasaki. Alexandre Pantoja by TKO, round 3.
Zane Simon: It’s hard for me to see what Sasaki brings against a fighter like Pantoja. He’s got size, but Pantoja has him beat for speed, grappling, creativity, and power. It may be that Sasaki can get takedowns, but he doesn’t have the Dustin Ortiz like wrestling ability to wear Pantoja out, and Pantoja is a great scrambler. This should be fun, but it’ll likely all be at the cost of Sasaki’s health. Alexandre Pantoja via TKO, round 2.
Victor Rodriguez: As complete a fighter as Pantoja is, I can see Sasaki’s flypaper grappling serving him well enough to have an approach similar to Demian Maia’s, only with better cardio and a size advantage. Ulka Sasaki by submission.
Staff picking Pantoja: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Harry, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Stephie, Dayne
Staff picking Sasaki: Victor
Austin Arnett vs. Humberto Bandenay
Zane Simon: I really want to pick Austin Arnett here. Bandenay does not look very good. He’s got some flashy kicks, but for a guy billed as having some exciting power, most of his wins - even on a pretty poor regional scene - have come by submission. Still, Arnett is basically a blank slate riding on toughness and some okay timing in his right hand. He gets hit by everything. And I can’t help but feel like Bandenay has a lot more potential to pull out something thrilling and unexpected. Humberto Bandenay by... stuff I guess?
Victor Rodriguez: I’m really curious to see if Bandenay’s training for defensive wrestling is up to snuff here, considering Arnett’s wrestling background. Bandenay’s range and surprising strength could end up putting Arnett away quick in this one. Humberto Bandenay by TKO, round 1.
Staff picking Arnett: Harry, Fraser, Dayne
Staff picking Bandenay: Bissell, Nick, Phil, Mookie, Zane, Stephie, Victor
Laureano Staropoli vs. Hector Aldana
Zane Simon: Staropoli just doesn’t look good at all. He runs himself backward into the cage to land counter shots, gets clipped up hard, and has to fight his way out of a lot of bad spots to make wins happen. More than that, he just doesn’t seem very athletic even against poor athletes. Aldana is really limited and not very good, but he seems a lot faster and like he hits a lot harder. Hector Aldana via KO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Staropoli’s being done dirty here. He’s just not ready for this level. Aldana’s not a high-level guy or someone that’s going to break into the top 15 any time soon, but Staropoli’s skills and opposition are so all over the place, that he’s not likely to get much traction. He’ll be a step behind in 95% of the exchanges and get outclassed. Hector Aldana by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Staropoli: Nick, Phil, Harry, Mookie, Stephie
Staff picking Aldana: Bissell, Zane, Fraser, Victor, Dayne
Devin Powell vs. Jesus Pinedo
Zane Simon: Pinedo is more cool and collected, at least in open exchanges than Powell, but he’s also a lot less tough and prone to throwing technique out the window in a brawl. Powell always seems like he’s fighting for dear life, but amazingly he fights really well through pain, and never stops throwing his awkward, off balance punches and kicks. That’s probably enough to beat Pinedo, who has mostly feasted on poor competition. Devin Powell via TKO, round 3.
Staff picking Powell: Bissell, Phil, Harry, Mookie, Zane, Fraser, Stephie, Victor
Staff picking Pinedo: Nick, Dayne
Nad Narimani vs. Anderson dos Santos
Zane Simon: Anderson is a hell of a lot of fun. A flat-footed brawler that throws long punch combos in the pocket and has an opportunistic sub game to back it up. But he also carries his chin high and, his habit of standing tall in the pocket and/or backing straight up makes him an easy target for takedowns. He’s also a career bantamweight fighting up a division on short notice. That should all be enough for Narimani’s pressure wrestle-boxing game to get after him, take him down, and work him over. But this could get real interesting if he walks into an Anderson counter. Nad Narimani by decision.
Mookie Alexander: Anderson Silva and Junior dos Santos may be past their primes, but combine them into one vicious striking beast known as Anderson dos Santos and I don’t see how Nad Narimani can cope. Anderson dos Santos by wheel kick, upward elbow combo KO, round 1.
Victor Rodriguez: Odd choice to have Narimani here, but he’s much, much further in his development as a fighter here. He looked great against Taha, and he should really superstyle on dos Santos once he gets a good feel in there for him. Nad Narimani by knockout, round 1.
Staff picking Narimani: Nick, Phil, Harry, Zane, Victor, Dayne
Staff picking dos Santos: Bissell, Mookie, Fraser, Stephie