While I’ve been trashing the UFC Argentina card on the last two previews, there are a couple contests well worth watching on the main card. Ricardo Lamas usually puts on a good show, so long as his opponent is willing to take the fight to him. Darren Elkins will do just that. Khalil Rountree is guaranteed to excite, so long as his opponent doesn’t take him to the ground. Fortunately for us, Johnny Walker doesn’t like the ground either. And y’all remember when Cynthia Calvillo was going to be the next big thing – insert Brock Lesnar joke here – at women’s strawweight? That wasn’t very long ago.
Feel free to skip the prelims, but the main card of UFC Argentina should be fun, even if there aren’t that many recognizable figures.
The main card begins on FS1 at 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT on Saturday.
Ricardo Lamas (18-7) vs. Darren Elkins (24-6), Featherweight
If we’re going by MMA math, Elkins should emerge victorious. After all, the Team Alpha Male rep defeated Mirsad Bektic last year whereas Lamas fell to the import from Bosnia this past spring. Then again, when has MMA math ever followed the rules of logic?
At 36, there is no doubt Lamas is on the downside of his career, having dropped his last two contests. However, he’s had stretches in those contests where he looked like his prime self, indicating he still has some juice left to squeeze out. One of the most opportunistic members of the roster – and I don’t just mean in the division – Lamas has a long history of catching his opponents in a guillotine amidst a scramble or landing a powerful hook that turns out the lights. He is well-rounded enough to pull out the decision over lesser competition, but struggles against the divisional elite without finding the finish as his levels of volume run inconsistent.
For all of his physical shortcomings, Elkins is knows how to maximize his limited physical tools. What he does have in abundance is an incredible amount of durability, grit, and determination. The collegiate wrestler makes his living against the fence and on the mat, either looking for the takedown or keeping his opponent against the fence. No one will ever mistake Elkins for an elite striker, but he has made himself into a competent striker with surprising pop in his punches. However, he’s more likely to score a stoppage late as he tends to wear down his opposition as opposed to knocking them silly.
The two questions are whether Elkins is amongst the elite and just how much Lamas has left in the tank. As much fun as it has been to root for Elkins amidst his recent stretch of success, none of his victories came against elite competition. So that leaves the question of what Lamas has left… and his durability. I take no pleasure picking against either combatant, but I’ve got to go one way or the other. So… Elkins via decision
Khalil Rountree (7-2, 1 NC) vs. Johnny Walker (14-3), Light Heavyweight
There are two things Walker loves: the clinch and flying knees. Well, perhaps just knees in general – and usually in the clinch – but Walker is always on the hunt for the kill. At 6’5” with an 82” reach, the potential is there for Walker to become an elite distance fighter, but he hasn’t established a consistent attack from the outside. Sure, he tosses out the occasional front kick or jab. The problem is that doesn’t mean all that much when his opponents have little issue getting inside his range. Striking defense isn’t Walker’s only concern. He doesn’t offer much in terms of takedown defense and too often waits for the referee to stand up the fight should the fight hit the mat.
Rountree has been in the UFC for a minute, though he is still largely the same fighter he was when he entered the organization. Perhaps it can be claimed he has improved his timing and recognition on the feet – his KO of kickboxing legend Gokhan Saki demonstrated that – but the route to beating him is obvious even to the uneducated eye: take him down and exhaust him as his stamina is a major question mark. If he can avoid that, Rountree’s power is as notable as anyone in the history of the light heavyweight division.
Walker has shown some skill on the ground, but not much. Then again, there’s no doubt that it’s more than anything Rountree has displayed. The question is whether Walker is willing and able to take that route on a consistent basis. I struggle to see him not willing to throwdown at some point with the American. Rountree’s beard is more proven than Walker’s, so the most likely outcome appears obvious. Rountree via TKO of RD1
Cezar Ferreira (13-6) vs. Ian Heinisch (11-1), Middleweight
It took a stretch of three first round KO losses for Ferreira to realize he’s better off being a ground fighter, but at least he realized it. Since that point, the former protégé of Vitor Belfort has gone 5-1, including a pair of arm-triangle chokes in the process. Those victories highlight his emphasis on shoring up his wrestling in order to make good use of his grappling skills as Ferreira used to be a head hunter in the mold of his mentor. Ferreira still has the power in his fists, but he’s far more judicial in when he chooses to attack, largely pot-shotting from the outside until he can find his way safely into the clinch for the takedown.
Heinisch is stepping in on very short notice as Tom Breese fell victim to another injury. A unique story given his three-and-a-half year stint in prison, Heinisch has put together an impressive run on the regional scene on the strength of his wrestling. Built like a brick house, it’s hard to stop him from finishing takedowns when he’s using proper technique. What limits the American is his limited BJJ skills and his lack of defense on the feet. Both of those areas should improve as he gains experience – he’s less than four years into his pro career – but has he shored them up enough to overcome Ferreira?
Ferreira is a very tough matchup for inexperienced combatants. He’s picked up a lot of tricks over the course of his UFC career and is amongst the savviest members of the middleweight division. Given Ferreira’s weak chin, there is a distinct possibility Heinisch can turn out his lights, but I see a slick takedown and submission from the Brazilian being the most likely outcome. Ferreira via submission of RD2
Guido Cannetti (8-3) vs. Marlon Vera (13-5-1), Bantamweight
Under normal circumstances, this contest wouldn’t even sniff the main card. However, given it’s the first event in Argentina and Cannetti is one of the few fighters on the roster from there, he’s getting some main card love.
Cannetti has been very fortunate to see his UFC career last as long as it has. He’s 38-years old, was never a special athlete, and has a bad tendency of being submitted. With that said, he’s also fearless and has a decent amount of pop in his strikes. Nonetheless, Cannetti has worked hard to create a wrestling game that’s functional. Now if he can just learn not to be overly-aggressive with his GnP….
With Vera, that’s a major concern. The native of Ecuador is very comfortable off his back, often too a fault. However, he’s also caught several of his opponents in compromising positions from there, whether it’s with a flash armbar or an upkick. Whereas Cannetti needed to shore up his ground game upon his UFC entry, Vera needed to fill in the holes in his standup, often spending too much time looking for the perfect counter rather than throwing out some volume. He’s added a jab to his repertoire and has always possessed a wide variety of kicks. Now he just needs to throw them at a steady pace.
Vera’s progress may have seen its share of stops and starts, but it has still been moving in the right direction. Cannetti has made himself into a better fighter as well over the course of his UFC stay despite his advanced age, but it’s hard to see him avoiding a power shot or a submission from his opportunistic opponent. Take your pick on how Vera does it, but he’s most likely going to get it done. Vera via KO of RD2
Cynthia Calvillo (6-1) vs. Poliana Botelho (7-1), Women’s Strawweight
It wasn’t that long ago when Calvillo was being pushed as the next big thing in women’s MMA by the UFC brass. A loss to Carla Esparza was followed up by a marijuana suspension from USADA and now she’s back at square one. Well… maybe not square one, but going from a competitive loss against a former champion to Botelho is a hell of a fall.
Perhaps I’m being unfair to Botelho as her sophomore UFC effort saw her secure an early victory with a well-placed kick to the liver – shades of Bas Rutten – spelling the beginning of the end for Syuri Kondo. It was proof Botelho isn’t as wild of a striker as she appears given she often throws her punches with no intention of feeling things out. She also has a varied attack with kicks to all levels being the primary staple. Botelho has shown good takedown defense too, though she hasn’t had a test the likes of Calvillo quite yet.
Calvillo doesn’t always resort to her wrestling – she preferred duking things out on the feet with Esparza – but make no mistake that is her bread and butter. Given she trains out of Team Alpha Male, that shouldn’t be a surprise. She made an early habit out of securing RNC’s in her UFC run and she can more than hold her own in scrambles. However, she also showed some holes in her grappling with Esparza and her standup has largely been focused on hitting up her opponent’s head. If Calvillo could add some more variety to her striking, she could launch herself into the top of the division.
Calvillo would be wise to look for takedowns early. Even if Botelho stuffs them, it should open up her striking. There is no guarantee she’ll go that route, though she’ll still be the favorite if she doesn’t. Her jab is steady enough that she should rack up plenty of volume on Botelho as the Brazilian looks to take her head off. Though it isn’t impossible to see Botelho landing something big to steal away the victory, Calvillo mixing in some wrestling and grappling to secure a decision appears to be the most likely route. Calvillo via decision