Lyoto Machida vs. Derek Brunson this October 28, 2017 at the Ginásio do Ibirapuera in São Paulo, Brazil.
One sentence summary
David: Enter the drag-on.
Phil: It's the return of the Dragon, featuring all the creeping dread of that one scene in game of thrones with the frozen lake and the chains.
Stats
Record: Machida 22-7 Brunson 17-5
Odds: Machida +140 Brunson -150
History / Introduction to both fighters
David: Machida had a year so bad he has yet to return from it. With back to back losses to Luke Rockhold and Yoel Romero, Machida had salt injected intravenously into the wound. Well, not technically salt. It was 7-Ketodehydro...epi..epi...androst...ero-not gonna see any throne anytime soon! Amirite? To be fair to Machida, I’d like to see steroids regulated to keep already tortured bodies that roid mana from Victor Conte’s basement. Alas, Machida has been out for two years. Machida has never relied on pure athleticism per se, but his athleticism was critical to what made him dangerous more than efficient (I don’t think he makes that Thiago Silva KO today). So the clock’s running. We’re just waiting to see if it’s gonna be the minute hand or the hour hand that signals his last hurrah. Damn...that hurt just to write.
Phil: Of all the USADA foul-ups, there are few more obviously egregious and unfair than grounding Machida for 2 years for a (voluntarily disclosed!) fat burner, while Jones, Lesnar etc have gotten far more lenient sentences. The only thing which salved it was that... well, Machida wasn't looking so great in his last couple of fights. There's something viscerally jarring in seeing someone who was famous for being an untouchable martial arts ghost getting brutally thumped on the ground. So, there are some mixed blessings, namely that at least Machida hasn't been taking concussions like that in his time on the shelf.
David: Brunson predictably knocked Dan Kelly out (sorry hobo Brett Favre fans), so it’s hard to say where’s progressed following his losses to Silva and Whittaker - two fights that saw Brunson approach his opponent in dramatically different ways to equally unsuccessful results. Shellacking a dad bod, no matter how talented, still leaves questions about a really dangerous fighter with mixed philosophies. Luckily for him, he’s fighting enigma squared. This is either gonna end quickly, or won’t be able to end quick enough.
Phil: Brunson definitely has some questions to answer. It's difficult to think of a fighter who has seesawed back and forth quite so dramatically between being tentative and boring and being absurdly aggressive. His loss to Anderson Silva has to be hanging over his head- does he try and fight a "technical", low-pace fight, and risk getting gamed by the veteran, or does he just try to leverage his athleticism and crush Machida, leaving himself open to an embarrassing Bader-esque counter knockout?
What’s at stake?
David: I mean, nothing significant. A win for either guy puts them into the “throw them into the meat grinder later and see if they come out as anything other than pink slime” category.
Phil: Nothing much in the longer term, but If Machida somehow comes through in front of the home crowd, it'll be one of those unforgettable Big Nog-Schaub moments.
Where do they want it?
David: As time has passed by, the years have been tough on Machida. He still has all of his “enigmatic” tools, but he gets muscled around easier. Yes, Rockhold is world class on the ground, but Machida just doesn’t have the grappling strength he used to have. Or so it seems. I point this out only because I think it could relevant. Brunson has the strength to power Machida to the ground. On the feet, Machida is his usual point cracking self. When he was younger, he could get a little more creative (think his crane kick KO of Randy COuture). But nowadays his strikes have become concentrated at range. He doesn’t seem to have that gear he used to have where - for a brief time - he was even able to muster up combinations in close. Part of this decline is surely due to age, but I think it’s also the way his style has to deal with the evolving landscape of athletes. Still, when it comes to sifting a straight left down the piper, few fighters stick the punch landing so cleanly.
Phil: There have been a number of factors working against Machida- the lack of complexity to his game, and a slowly rising level of baseline athleticism and skill in the environment around him. He's also obviously just kind of old. There just aren't many people who started fighting in 2003 who are still threats to the top of their division.
On the plus side, until his recent fights Machida hasn't been taking much damage, but on the other hand, he never really struck me as someone who was particularly sturdy in the first place. That first Shogun bout is perhaps unfairly remembered as a robbery, but what really stood out was how Shogun was so clearly on the upper end of the power and toughness equation. In all, Machida's game likely remains much as it was: probing snap and leg kicks from range, movements and feints, all to draw opponents into the left cross or counter step-knee. He's always been an underrated threat in the clinch, particularly against men his own size. He has nasty knees and slapping elbows reminiscent of his friend Anderson, albeit without the same ability to control posture. Whether he can still compete there with the bigger, younger fighter is likely one of the core questions of this bout.
David: Brunson had a weird string of fights. Against Anderson he was content to respect his opponent for three rounds. Before that he was intent on disrespecting his opponent at every turn. He didn’t need to do either against Kelly. At is best he can work an effective jab behind a blistering left hand, and an equally devastating left kick. Complimenting it all is a strong wrestling game that he’s pretty savvy in how he integrates it all together. Brunson’s trappings are typical of most “wrestle-boxers” - neutralize one aspect and their rhythm becomes an issue. I don’t mean in terms of output but in terms of offsetting their opponent’s pressure/offense, which is the vague concept judges use to barely do their jobs.
Phil: If Machida lives off puncturing a void of offense with a single shattering shot, then Brunson's style is a paean to chained offense. His jab links to his cross or marching combinations, his punches lead to the clinch, his clinch leads to the single collar and uppercuts, or to trip takedowns, and so on and so forth. When it's working, this makes for a torrent of attacks which quickly and brutally drowns his opponents. When it's not, the chain gets snapped and flails around. Brunson's defense in neutral situations is perfectly fine, but once he's moved into attack mode, he is almost entirely reliant on the opponent being too busy defending to hit him back. Those who are willing to step into the fire can quickly turn his strengths against him.
Insight from past fights
David: I wonder if Brunson will treat Machida’s offense with the same kind of hespect he did against Silva. That gameplan wouldn’t be the worst choice against Machida. Against Silva I think it was a combination of being hit and dealing with Silva’s reach. But even in that weird ass fight, he scored with some solid punches. Fighting with that kind of distance management will suit him if he’s just a little less stagnant. Like I said - this fight could be fun in bursts, but I’m not expecting something we’d see on a Cerrone highlight reel.
Phil: Along with most others, I scored the fight for Brunson, although I had little sympathy for the loss. A big question has to be what Brunson himself took away from it: did he think he just got robbed, and that it's something worth trying again? Or did the whole experience leave a bad taste in his mouth, leaving himself listening to his inner Dana? "Don't leave it in the hands of the judges, kid."
X-Factors
David: Nothing too serious. I guess there’s always the “oooh let’s see how tough he is without his steroids” factor for Machida.
Phil: Aside from the obvious (2 years off for Machida) there isn't much. I don't think Brunson has returned to Jackson-Wink, who did a good job of modulating his aggression.
Prognostication
David: I could see Machida having early success with or without Brunson fighting aggressive or passive. However, I can’t trust Machida to maintain the necessary pressure to keep Brunson at bay for all five (potential) rounds. Derek Brunson by Decision.
Phil: Much as I'd love to see a vintage Machida return to form, there are too many places for this fight to go wrong. The clinch, the ground and even the outside are all danger zones for him, whereas his success probably has to come from landing one of those trademark left straights. I think Brunson fights cautiously but turns it up if and when he realizes that the Dragon physically can't compete with top-end athletes any more. Derek Brunson by TKO, round 4.