Pettis and Oliviera try to own their haunted pasts by taking control of the future this August 27, 2016 at the Rogers Arena in Vancouver, Canada.
One sentence summary:
David: Charles Oliveira finally gets the high profile fight he deserves against Pettis, not the one his career didn't need so early.
Phil: Physical versus technical frailty inside a washing machine of high-octane grappling and striking
Stats
Record: Pettis 18-5 Oliveira 21-5-1 NC
Odds: Pettis -200 Oliveira +170
History / Introduction to Both Fighters
David: Pettis is like a Halloween sequel at this point: trending toward returns so diminishing* you start to question the value the original incarnation even had. No disrespect to Carpenter of course. I don't think it's that the emperor wears no clothes. More like, he was just wearing a Girbaud this whole time. Or something. It's hard to really talk about Pettis without insulting him. By that I mean, his status is just mediocre in proportion to what it used to be. And unlike other former champs, he doesn't have any real excuse. He's only a year removed from his title, and in his athletic prime.
Phil: The problem for Pettis is that his style was "solved" and that he wasn't picking up on the reasons why. He said after the Alvarez fight that he was never going to catch up with the wrestling of his opponents, but the problem wasn't grappling per se: it was foot position, the inability to control the mid range with boxing and a clinch game devoid of offense. Opponents could line up shots over and over. These flaws were promptly exploited by Edson Barboza, who gave him exactly the fight he wanted but simply beat him with better boxing and footwork.
David: Oliveira has been on a solid run. He has yet to functionally lose since being defeated by Frankie Edgar. I don't think his run reflects an evolutionary leap in his game, but it does reflect what should have been his career trajectory from the get go.
Phil: We've always talked about how Oliveira was thrown to the wolves too early because, well, it's true. But, I think it's worth thinking about the fact that he probably would have picked up some shocker losses even if he'd been fighting a lesser level of competition. The combination of tons of aggression and basic physical fragility isn't one which lends itself to long, unbroken win streaks.
What's at stake?
David: This is that rare fight where the pressure is so disproportionately on one fighter to perform. Think CM Punk versus that guy. Or Rougned Odor vs Jose Bautista.
Phil: I do think that Oliveira puts a lot of pressure on himself, even if the public pressure is on Pettis. Apparently he was utterly devastated after his loss to Edgar. Regardless of the potential nosedive of the loser, I think the winner goes into upper-tier competition, or perhaps gets a relative action fighter softball in a Yair Rodriguez fight.
Where do they want it?
David: Lately, I don't even know with Pettis. If there's one, or many, things he still does well it's make the most of the breathing room his opponent gives him. Wait, that's not true either. But seriously, he's still an incredible talent at open range combat. Pettis relies purely on the terms his patience and timing are given. Like a Final Destination kill, he needs a specific set of circumstances in order to enact violence. He's that perfect plan tomorrow kind of fighter. While he's too careful at choosing his shots, when he lands, the payoff is extraordinary. His pinpoint punches and mercurial kicks allow him to create violence (more than offense) from nothing.
Phil: Pettis has always been maximizing distance, even down to his stance selection. He always tends to mirror his opponent, going for orthodox against southpaws and vice versa. That may serve him well here, opening up the liver kick which he can slip underneath the Oliveira high guard. The problems, as mentioned, start the minute someone gets past kicking range. Oliveira is pathologically aggressive, but not all that quick, so the key points for Pettis involve either punting the Brazilian in the head or the body before he gets too close and/or moving laterally to escape being pinned to the fence.
David: Oliveira has a great foundation for a mixed martial artist. With his sinewy frame, he attacks opponents on the feet and on the ground with equal pugilistic aplomb. His approach to fighting is still rugged. With his experience, he no longer qualifies as a prospect but he still fights with that prospect exuberance. Oliveira's technical skills have never been other worldly. I'm not even sure I'd call him an elite athlete. But that youthful bombast serves him well when he's fishing for opportunities via guillotines, armbars, triangles, knees, punches, et cetera.
Phil: One of the weird things I enjoy about Oliveira is that he has one of the most classical Muai Thai stances in MMA. You really don't see the high guard, raised lead foot all that often. Anyway, we've compared him to a quicker, more dynamic Werdum before, and the point still stands- he bangs in long punches and arcing kicks to push back and cut off respectively, and uses them to go straight into the clinch. From there it's kicks, knees, trips and occasionally guard pulls, straight into a ground game characterized by, you guessed it, pure aggression.
Primarily Do Bronx hunts head and arm control, but he's honestly pretty happy going for anything that presents itself, whether ground and pound, joint locks, or esoterica like the calf slicer he hit on Wisely. His over-aggression in the past got him in trouble against Jim Miller, and Pettis is definitely a highly aggressive submission threat in his own right. His main problem is, obviously, that he's just not very durable.
Also, because I have to fit it in somewhere: Showtime Suplex!
Insight from Past Fights?
David: Oliveira is not a pressure fighter in the traditional sense. As in, his game isn't predicated on designed pressure. The pressure just sort of happens. Like it's synchronized with his mood. Pettis has fought someone kind of like this: Joe Lauzon. And Pettis smashed him. Granted, I don't know that we learned anything except how much it must suck to get kicked in the head by Pettis, but still.
Phil: Oliveira has lost to dynamic fighters (Cerrone, Swanson), but Pettis has also lost to or struggled with pressure, and Oliveira is a much more naturally aggressive fighter than, say, Alvarez or even Melendez. Tough to read much in the stylistic tea-leaves.
X-Factors?
David: The Pantera factor. As in, fighters are human and humans reach for inspiration in whatever places they can find. I hope Pettis watches Yair Rodriguez with special attention. Pettis has the arsenal to replicate what Yair does, but I'd argue he could execute it even better. Mechanics wise, he's superior to Yair. If he's feeling motivated, and innovative, watching Yair steal his Showtime thunder should be just the right switchkick cocktail of jealousy Pettis needs to either reinvent his attack, or adapt altogether.
Phil: Weight. Oliveira's getting into John Lineker territory, where he's blown weight so many times that some people are refusing to even think of him as belonging to the class he ostensibly fights at. As of now, Do Bronx has made it with no issues, but this is Pettis' first contest at 145, and he doesn't look... great, physically at the moment. His brother has had a fair few setbacks as a ‘tweener fighter.
Prognostication
David: My issue with Oliveira is that against Pettis a lack of pressure is no different than improvised pressure. Pettis may be flawed. Hell, he might even be declining in some way. Though I'd sooner argue this has a little to do with his lack of activity over the years. But he's not gonna be beaten by pressure that isn't smart. And I don't think Oliveira is the fighter to put Pettis in a corner, and send him to Bellator. Not only that but Oliveira's defense isn't even good. Pettis has a unique set of skills. He will find Charles. And he will kill him. Anthony Pettis by TKO, round 3.
Phil: This is another fight like Teixeira/Rumble where the dynamics will be apparent very immediately and Olivera's biggest danger zone is literally right at the start. I can't help but feel that Oliveira is less tough but far more effectively aggressive than most of the people who have troubled Pettis lately, though. Charles Oliveira by unanimous decision.
*I'm a sucker for trashy cinema and I believe Part III would have some sort of Night of the Creeps status if it wasn't attached to the Halloween name. Rob Zombie's sequels sucked but at least a pair of creeps get offed by running into a cow.