It speaks volumes to how deep the UFC 205 card is that a fight the caliber of Rashad Evans vs. Tim Kennedy has been removed and fans are barely blinking. That’s a fight that could easily headline a Fight Night card… perhaps even a big FOX card knowing Paige Van Zant has enough clout to do so. And yet, few seem to care. Damn.
Even if you are unable to watch the PPV portion, there are still a pair of extremely important contests on FS1 that have major implications on their respective divisions. Former lightweight champion Frankie Edgar appears capable of beating anyone not named Jose Aldo at featherweight, and that includes a certain champion headlining the card. Yes, I’m talking about Conor McGregor. Edgar meets surging action fighter Jeremy Stephens who always appears prepared to get a fun fight out of his opponent come hell or high water.
The other important contest will likely determine who fights the winner of the evening’s main event for the lightweight title. Khabib Nurmagomedov has a very compelling case to receive that title shot, but is it more compelling than Tony Ferguson’s case? Should Nurmagomedov win impressively, he may be able to sway the favor his way. However, should Michael Johnson derail the Russian’s hype train – a very real possibility – Ferguson seems assured of getting the next shot.
The FS1 prelims begin at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT.
Frankie Edgar (20-5-1) vs. Jeremy Stephens (25-12), Featherweight
After nearly a decade in the UFC each in the same division for almost the entire time, Edgar and Stephens finally meet up in what should be a hell of a contest.
Edgar is in a difficult spot. He has now lost twice to Jose Aldo with the most recent loss being his most recent appearance in the cage. Now he’s basically in the Joseph Benavidez role of being an elite gatekeeper. At 35-years old, it’s hard to believe that a physical decline won’t soon take effect. Despite that, he’s should still be amongst the elite of the sport, not just the division.
Stephens is well aware of Edgar’s status and is hoping to pull out his second victory in a row over a former UFC champion as he usurped Renan Barao in his most recent appearance. Despite his long career, Stephens is only 30-years old and should still be in his physical prime. He knows now is the time to make a run for the title if he is ever to do so which is why he called for this contest.
Despite his loss to Jose Aldo, it’s reasonable to say that this is the best Frankie Edgar we’ve ever seen. Sure, he wasn’t able to solve the puzzle that is Jose Aldo. Then again, only Conor McGregor has been able to do that and there is major questions whether or not he would be capable of repeating that performance. What makes Edgar so good in these later years has been his adjustments in style. He’s been willing to sit down more on his punches as opposed to touching up the opposition for the duration of the fight in addition to greater aggression in pursuing takedowns. He does still dance on the outside where he displays his improved footwork and use of angles with the occasional pop shot, but it’s about more than just scoring points now.
Stephens has never been a points fighter, a big part of the reason he has long been a favorite of Dana White. Even with that said, he too has changed his style, though his change has been more favorable to winning decisions. Still willing to exchange in the pocket, Stephens now concentrates more on touching up his opponent with punching combinations as opposed to just going for the kill shot with every punch he throws. He’s also become a much better counter puncher, though he still prefers to be the aggressor rather than sit back and wait for his opponent to come at him. He’ll throw the occasional flying knee or spinning backfist to in hopes of scoring the highlight reel KO, though he has generally been more conscience defensively .
Whether or not Stephens will be able to stuff Edgar’s takedown attempts will be the key to his success. Stephens is an underrated wrestler and has had better than average success at stuffing takedowns. Though he is no longer considerably smaller than his opponents now that he fights at featherweight, Edgar has had more success in finishing his takedown attempts. Timing was always the key to his success, though he no longer has to rely on it so heavily. Even if he doesn’t finish the attempt, Edgar’s chain wrestling has always been amongst the best in the sport. Stephens can hit the occasional change of pace takedown himself, but it has been almost five years since anyone has finished a takedown on the elusive Edgar. Don’t expect Stephens to do so.
Stephens’ power gives him a chance in any contest that he is in. The problem is that Edgar is one of the most durable fighters in this or any generation. Remember Gray Maynard being unable to finish him off early in their second and third contest? Stephens has been durable himself, so I’d expect the fight to go to a decision. Given that Edgar is the far more effective points fighter, it feels like one of the easier fights on the card to pick. Should still be a fun contest. Edgar via decision
Khabib Nurmagomedov (23-0) vs. Michael Johnson (17-10), Lightweight
After being used as a pawn by the UFC in negotiations with Eddie Alvarez, Nurmagomedov is being told he needs a win to get the title shot he covets. Johnson has played spoiler before and looks to do so again.
While it is a bit laughable to hear Nurmagomedov say he’d keep the UFC out of Russia, there is no denying that he is one of the elite at 155. The problem is that he hasn’t picked up a quality win in 31 months as injuries to him and potential opponents have prevented him from fighting the other divisional elite. It will be hard to deny him the title shot he has been calling for should he win here.
No one has ever denied Johnson’s talent. His consistency on the other hand…. To be fair, he seems to have largely solved that issue despite the two losses he accumulated prior to his dominant win over Dustin Poirier. That victory thrust Johnson back into the talk of the elite, even if he is on the fringe of the elite. A victory over Nurmagomedov will put him into the title picture and Johnson knows that.
Johnson will want to keep the fight standing if he hopes to wreck the Russian’s future plans. It isn’t that Johnson is a weak wrestler. In fact, he’s a very skilled and talented wrestler, particularly on the defensive end. It’s just that Nurmagomedov is in a completely different world from everyone else. Opponents may be able to stop his first attempt, but the subsequent attempts from there are what usually get the opposition. It isn’t just single or double-leg attempts. Trips, throws, body-locks, knee taps… you name it he does it. He’s aggressive in looking for guard passes or taking the back and opponents have often been able to scramble back to their feet when he does that. It isn’t like that is a huge problem for Nurmagomedov though… he just drags them down again.
The primary function of Nurmagomedov’s striking has always been to set up his takedowns. He doesn’t have a lot of power, but he utilizes excellent footwork and angles to avoid damage while picking his spots for a takedown, clinching up, or landing a punch or two. Nurmagomedov doesn’t get enough credit for his clinch offense either, and I’m not referring to his takedowns. He did appear a bit rusty against Darrell Horcher after two years out of the cage, but that was expected. He should have the rust kicked off for this contest and be ready to rock and roll.
Johnson will undoubtedly have the standup advantage as he possesses superior speed, power, and overall boxing skill. He pieces together 3-4 punch boxing combinations with unnatural speed and his power was on display against Poirier. At times, he is overaggressive and can end up putting himself in a compromising position. Johnson has been able to get away with this thanks to his speed and fantastic takedown defense, though I have a hard time believing Nurmagomedov won’t be able to finish a takedown if the opportunity presents itself. Nonetheless, the more time the fight stays on the feet, the more it favors Johnson as he can accumulate volume in a hurry or simply finish the contest in a hurry.
Johnson’s fight IQ has been improving substantially which has helped to smooth over his consistency issues. As a result, I’d expect him to rely heavily on his effective jab from the outside as he tries to avoid giving Nurmagomedov the opportunity he’ll be looking for. However, that style of fighting goes against his nature. If he doesn’t, his strengths play right into what Nurmagomedov wants to do. Either way, I don’t like this matchup for Johnson. A KO from Blackzillian representative isn’t out of the realm of possibility, though few are counting on it. Nurmagomedov via decision
Rafael Natal (21-7-1) vs. Tim Boetsch (19-10), Middleweight
Kind of hard to believe these two have never met after all these years in the UFC. Now they battle to determine who the ultimate middleweight gatekeeper is!
Okay, I admit that isn’t exactly a title that anyone wants attached to them, but it isn’t as much of an insult as many would have you believe. For example, Natal’s 9-5-1 UFC record is more than respectable. The reason he isn’t considered to be more than a gatekeeper is the lack of quality wins. His best wins? Uriah Hall and Chris Camozzi. He’s had chances against the likes of Tim Kennedy and Robert Whittaker, so it isn’t like he hasn’t had opportunities. A win over Boetsch would probably get him another chance against someone of their stature.
Boetsch has had more than his share of opportunities against a higher level of competition with flukish wins over Yushin Okami and Hector Lombard being responsible for him being thrust into cage with the likes of Luke Rockhold. Boetsch appeared to be on a steep decline before looking better than he has in years in his win over the late Josh Samman this past July. He’s unlikely to be challenging the divisional elite again, but a win here will solidify his roster spot that has appeared tenuous as of late.
What has allowed Natal to find success is his versatility. He isn’t a great grinder nor is he a fantastic range striker, but he is potent enough in each area that he can turn to one or the other when his opponent has a decided advantage in the one of those categories. A steady diet of his jab complemented with kicks to all levels mark his range striking, though they also help to set up his combinations in the pocket.
Expect Natal to stay on the outside for this occasion as Boetsch is not only a beast in the clinch, he is one of the biggest and strongest middleweights in the UFC. He doesn’t need a lot of room to let loose with a series of uppercuts to put out your lights. Unfortunately for him, he is also one of the slower 185ers around, making himself a fairly easy target to pick apart. Nonetheless, his power makes him an opponent not to be taken lightly even if his counters tend to be a bit on the wild side.
The wild card in this contest will be who decides to take the fight to the ground. Boetsch is the better wrestler while Natal’s grappling chops are far superior. Does Boetsch want to risk being submitted in order to control Natal on the ground? My guess is yes as Natal’s vaunted ground game hasn’t had much traction in the UFC with only one of his nine submission wins coming at that level. The question is whether or not Boetsch can get the fight on the ground. His shots are powerful, though often telegraphed. Fortunately he has a series of trips and throws from the clinch that he can go to.
I’m sure Connor Ruebusch is drooling all over this contest as it is about as middleweight as it gets. Both have skill sets that present a formidable argument why they should win this, though my gut is leaning towards Boetsch. Natal isn’t easy to take down and has the speed to stay on the outside and pick apart the Maine native, but something tells me the big man find success in bullying the Brazilian around the cage. We’ll see. Boetsch via TKO of RD2
Vicente Luque (10-5-1) vs. Belal Muhammad (10-1), Welterweight
Originally scheduled to be Lyman Good against Muhammad before Good was notified of a potential violation by USADA, Luque may make it a more interesting contest between two promising prospects.
Luque has ripped off three straight victories since losing his official UFC debut to Mike Graves. Each subsequent victory has been more impressive, with each one of them resulting in a finish. He doesn’t turn 25-years old until the end of the month, indicating he should continue to improve as he should be entering his physical prime sometime in the next few years. However, the names he has beat – Hayder Hassan, Alvaro Herrara, and Hector Urbina – are hardly quality.
Muhammad’s lone UFC victory came over Augusto Montano, not best quality opponent either. However, Muhammad’s debut was a memorable battle with Alan Jouban in which he gave the veteran action-fighter all he could handle. Even more impressive about that performance is that he did so during Ramadan, limiting when and what he could eat. Imagine what he can do without starving himself.
Due to his propensity to have his fights go to decision, Muhammad picked up a reputation as a boring fighter before jumping to the UFC. Anyone who watches him knows the truth: his pressure-heavy style is pretty damned entertaining. A steady jab, short punching combinations, and the occasional leg or body kick all appear regularly, all thrown with great technical precision. Muhammad’s combinations tend to lengthen once he has his opponents on the ropes. Thanks to the heavy amount of time he spends in the pocket – and less to do with technical holes in his defense -- he takes a lot of damage in return.
Luque has been establishing himself as a striker to be reckoned with too, though he has natural advantages in terms of length and athleticism that Muhammad can’t possibly hope to match. His jab has been improving, but it is his combinations that have been sticking out as of late. It isn’t just punches either as he has been mixing in kicks fluidly as well. As his comfort on the feet grows, so does his arsenal and willingness to take chances.
Luque’s BJJ has been highly regarded, particularly his front chokes which he has used to pick up two of his UFC wins. He isn’t a very good defensive wrestler, though the aforementioned front chokes can be used as deterrents to opponents wanting to shoot in on him. Luque’s willingness to wrestle has been dependent upon his opponent. Don’t expect him to try and mix it up with Muhammad who has proven himself to be more than competent. Muhammad isn’t particularly explosive or powerful in his shots, but his timing, technique, and ability to set them up more than make up for that.
This is a test to see if Luque is ready to start moving up the ladder. While I feel he is ready for tougher competition than what he has been facing, Muhammad seems like a bigger step up than what I believe Luque has been facing. Expect the striking to be fairly close with Muhammad’s takedowns making up the difference and separate himself from the young Brazilian in the eyes of the judges. Muhammad via decision