The Count Bisping looks to defend his title in his native land against Dan Henderson at UFC 204 this October 8th at Manchester Arena in Manchester, England.
One sentence summary:
David: Middleweight begins its Heavyweight phase in England as the world approaches Halloween.
Phil: The weirdest title fight in recent memory, as knockout artist Michael Bisping tries to close in past Dan Henderson's flashy array of head kicks and back elbows in order to land the patented B-bomb(tm).
Introduction / History to the fighters
David: Bisping has led a very interesting journey toward the UFC. A throwaway season of TUF had us thinking we'd get some warm bodies in the cage, and nothing else. Then he starting doing well, and he was merely an overachiever. Somewhere along the way he realized how much the gift of gab was worth. Even Hendo's falcon punch wasn't able to stop it, and a series of TUF zigs and retinal killing zags has led us to Michael Bisping, Middleweight Champion. It feels like history. I don't know where we're headed, but middleweight chaos is so much more fun than heavyweight chaos. What better mouthpiece for such histrionic anarchy than the regal vulgarity of Michael Bisping?
Phil: How the hell did we get here? Bisping had two very clearly laid out paths for his UFC career. In one, he got a title shot, and everyone agreed that he deserved it, if perhaps not on pure merit then as a kind of lifetime achievement, and lost. In another, he was locked out of that title shot by better fighters, and retired on a bittersweet note. How did we get to the third alternate reality where Bisping not only gets a title shot... but wins it, by first round knockout, in 2016? Not only is Bisping champ, but a surprising amount of non-English people are actually rooting for him to beat Dan Henderson (Editor's Note: I'm one of them).
David: Like most people, I grew up respecting the hell out of Dan's presence in the ring and cage. And yea, I remember that sweet Carlos Newton fight. Or that Ninja fight that showed how silly people were for saying ‘Pride rules are better!'. Or any host of great fighters Henderson has been in throughout the years. Actually, if he doesn't retire and fights in 2017, Hendo can call himself a 20 year veteran. But like Bisping, whatever brought these men here has felt "unnatural". Wasn't Dan supposed to retire years ago? That Mousasi loss wasn't that long ago. Or that Belfort KO. I mean, good for Dan and all. But what creepy looking antique doll did middleweight piss off to deserve these two?
Phil: Henderson is very smart and hits very hard. That's about it, but it's still a combination of traits which allows him to take advantage of people who don't stay very carefully on the tracks. One of the primary differences between the Hendo of today and the one of three to five years ago is that he just doesn't have much of an opportunity to put those smarts or power to good use. Those margins will become slimmer over time until they're gone. I'm glad that he's retiring after this fight. It's a fitting capstone to an amazing career, win or lose. I just hope he isn't lying to himself when he talks about putting down the gloves, because competing is a hell of a drug.
What's at stake?
David: I have no clue. That sounds weird to say about a title fight, but just look at our options. If Bisping wins, something approaching a traditional narrative brews at middleweight. Then Hendo can live the remainder of his days housing the memories of a dead CIA agent like Kevin Costner in that new sci fi flick. If Hendo wins, then it's Randy Couture II: The Suturing. Short films, though.
Phil: Yep. The storybook ending says Hendo, the sporting ending says Bisping.
Where do they want it?
David: Bisping does a lot of things well, but he's not great at any one thing. That's a description for every fighter who has ever received a UFC pink slip, or could barely hack it in the Yamma Pit. The difference? Economy. Much is made of Bisping's cardio. Rogan yammers on about his resting heart rate like he's Neo. Except this undercuts Bisping's strength as some sort of ‘keys to victory' soundbite. Economy as in; few fighters have a better understanding of output in intervals, and at the right juncture than Bisping. Being well rounded is fine. But it makes little difference if you can't dictate with it. Bisping knows how to dictate the pace of the fight without typical blunt force trauma. It's a very British fight philosophy, if you will, which is the closest thing MMA has to an international landscape informing technique and tactics. Am I making sense?
Phil: Yep. The advantage of Bisping's style is that it's aged extremely well with the evolution of the sport. When he started out he moved for the sake of moving, he didn't sit on his jab, he didn't carry his feet with him, and his cardio kickboxing style was more carried through by sheer inertia and will than by technical acumen. Now that technical acumen has been greatly sharpened up and, like the Diaz brothers, Bisping has almost by accident found himself in a world where his high volume, attritional style is gaining prominence as a popular approach. The big punchers and the wrestlers of his heyday are largely obsolete, but Bisping is still here.
David: Henderson, as we've pointed out time and time again while wondering what we're stilling doing here previewing a bout he's in (kudos to the man, granted), has refined his technique over the years. He has access to more setups for his right hand than in years past. And I think his grappling has improved quite a bit since his Rings/Pride days. Honestly I always felt like his wrestling background was more or less squandered in MMA. His takedown defense was never great, even in his prime, and it always felt like the buttress to his success rather than his foundation. But I think that helped fuel his success; his experience and specialization was always a red herring. A card trick used to conceal the kind of heat in his right hand that could fuel Godzilla's breath.
Phil: Henderson has two basic routes to success in this fight. Unless the pressure of his first defense in his hometown at 5 in the morning absolutely melts Bisping's brain, he's not going to circle aimlessly into a huge overhand. Instead, the right hand is going to come as a shorter, cleaner shot in an exchange, as against Hector Lombard, or it's going to come off a clinch break, as against Shogun. In many ways the H-bomb in the form that landed on Bisping has been camouflage for Hendo's late career. He scares people with it, he uses it to step inside, but most of his success has been in the clinch.
Insight from Past Fights
David: Basically, the trend in every Hendo fight lately is that he gets hurt, but remains dangerous. I don't expect that to change. For Bisping, I don't know that he KO's Luke Rockhold with those same punches five years ago. Bisping is experiencing a similar Brundle Fly transformation that Anderson Silva did as he went from Pride to the UFC: timing his punches better (Silva was no KO machine in Pride, to say nothing of his losses). Timing and accuracy have aided his power every so slightly, and just enough to make even elite fighters respect what he's doing on the feet.
Phil: Hendo's brief window of hope is that he's still been capable of beating fighters who have tried to box with him. His footspeed is glacial but his handspeed is still excellent, and Lombard and Boetsch stepped inside due to their reach and clinch-fighting proclivities, respectively, and got wrecked. For all his improvements, Bisping is a man who can overstay his welcome inside the range of his opponent.
X-Factors:
David: Can we recycle your Jurassic World joke, here? The fact that Dan is still successful shouldn't hide the fact that his body actually isn't holding up. I'm totally expecting a Bisping TKO.
Phil: One of the reasons why Bisping never made it to the big leagues was because he clearly overthought his fights. Potshotting and countering against Vitor, or his ridiculously tentative performance against Henderson the first time. Parillo himself said that he thought Bisping had benefited from not having to think the second Rockhold fight too much. This is the rematch to a fight Bisping's been thinking about for seven years. Over-thinking?
Other than that... hould these old fellas really be kept awake at 5 in the morning? It seems cruel.
Prognostication
David: A few seconds of jitters won't prevent Bisping from doing his thing. When Bisping rocks Henderson, and he will, Bisping won't get crazy and lose his cool. The crazy will come afterwards when he's mocking America to the tune of Song 2. Michael Bisping by TKO, round 1.
Phil: I'd like to see some honest competition in this fight. A single Hendo cross early in the first would make for a lot of memes, but it'd still be a bit sad. Similarly, Bisping shredding Hendo to pieces would bum me out. Whatever happens, Bisping seems like he's faster and more importantly far more durable at this stage in their careers. Michael Bisping by TKO, round 3.