The Bloody Elbow team has made its predictions for UFC 204, and the split is 7-5 in favor of Michael Bisping to beat Dan Henderson in tomorrow’s main event. Only Tim Burke is backing Vitor Belfort to beat Gegard Mousasi in the co-main. In the light heavyweight division, we see a clean sweep for Ovince Saint Preux over Jimi Manuwa.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected the day before the event. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Dayne Fox entered all of his predictions on Wednesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he's going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Michael Bisping vs. Dan Henderson
Anton Tabuena: Henderson can still knock anyone out, but this will be a real uphill battle for him. Michael Bisping on the other hand, has been putting it all together and stringing better combinations that I don’t think Henderson’s declining durability can handle. I think he avoids the obvious H-bombs, picks him apart from distance, and ends it with a head kick. Michael Bisping by KO.
Mookie Alexander: Bisping is either going to volume-strike Hendo to hell and then knock him out in the later rounds, or he’ll get him with a power shot that puts him down and then Bisping finishes with his underrated ground-and-pound. You can talk about Bisping’s shaky chin all you want, but Hendo’s been consistently getting dropped the moment he gets hit hard. That’s been the case for about 3 years. Henderson has had a great career but his recent record suggests that the H-Bomb isn’t landing with any sort of regularity. In summation, I’m no fun. Michael Bisping by TKO, round 3.
Victor Rodriguez: Bisping’s excellent performance against Anderson Silva demonstrates that he’s grown as a fighter to the point where he has the patience and composure that was lacking in his first fight against Henderson. Henderson rarely uses his wrestling offensively these days, yet still relies on clever positioning and great timing to land his shots. He was able to set up the H-bomb beautifully in the first fight, but Bisping has been studying this and has Jason Parillo (still my nominee for coach of the year) running things with him this time. He’s not falling for those tricks again and may very well not just win this, but finish Henderson with a headkick as Parillo predicted. Michael Bisping by TKO.
Jed Meshew: Firstly, I wrote this long thing on Bloody Elbow about how Bisping never got a title shot and then he snuck in and won the damn thing. You should go check it out. Secondly, in that thing I say that Bisping is the best fighter he’s ever been technically but that he’s way past his physical prime now, which is very, very true. Bisping has one functional eye and a badly deteriorating chin. He’s been dropped by almost everyone he’s fought in the last 2 years. But he makes up for this by being much better defensively and, fortunately for him, the bad eye is his right eye and he usually gets dropped by left hooks, which is conveniently not the punch Hendo is known for. Still, it’s the year of our lord 2016 and Michael Bisping and Miesha Tate have won legitimate world titles. Dan Henderson deserves his own. Honestly, the first guy who lands clean here is going to take it. If Hendo pulls this off, it’s the single greatest story in MMA history and I’ll be damned if I’m gonna root against the Disney movie ending. Hendo. H-bomb. Rd 1.
Tim Bissell: It’s 2016 and Dan Henderson will be a UFC champion. This is such a bizarre statement that it has to come true. We forget sometimes that MMA is not just a little crazy, it’s flat out bonkers. So often I’m caught thinking an outcome is obvious (Barao vs. Dillashaw, Rousey vs. Holm, Pettis vs. Dos Anjos, Rockhold vs. Bisping) because it feels like it should be (and because I’m the worst prognosticator here) only to see the reverse happen. Anyways, my point is, a lot of things in MMA seem impossible, until they happen. Hendo completing MMA’s triple-crown is one of those things. Dan Henderson by TKO (round 1).
Eddie Mercado: I picked Michael Bisping to upset Luke Rockhold at UFC 199 to win the middleweight title and I am now picking Michael Bisping to get upset by Dan Henderson at UFC 204 to lose the middleweight title. Hendo will ride off into the sunset, thus leaving the vacant title to be fought over between the winner of Chris Weidman/Yoel Romero and the winner of Luke Rockhold/Jacare Souza. Dan Henderson by damn, I’m really going to miss watching Hendo fight.
Dayne Fox: I’m jumping on the Hendo bandwagon. I know I shouldn’t in terms of breaking down the fight from a technical standpoint, but if this is really the last time I get to watch Hendo, then I’m hoping and praying I get to see his signature H-bomb land and pick him up a long-deserved UFC title. This is the year to be making picks like this anyway, right? Hendo via KO of RD2
Staff picking Bisping: Mookie, Victor, Phil, Tim, Anton, Stephie, Zane
Staff picking Henderson: Nick, Jed, Bissell, Eddie, Dayne
Vitor Belfort vs. Gegard Mousasi
Anton Tabuena: Belfort hasn’t physically looked like his TRT days, but he still is very dangerous early. If Mousasi can stay disciplined and avoids the early onslaught, he will slowly pick apart and beat Belfort both on the feet and on the ground. Gegard Mousasi by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Who’s up for some Vitor guard-pulling after he doesn’t get the KO in the first 3 minutes? I am, I am! Gegard Mousasi by TKO, round 2.
Eddie: Watching Vitor Belfort annihilate Wanderlei Silva at UFC 17.5 back in 1998 is the reason I am an MMA fan. Unfortunately, that was then and this is now. No longer can I trust the Phenom to survive against the elite middleweights in their prime, and Gegard Mousasi is just that. Gegard Mousasi by Submission (RNC) in Round 2.
Jed: Mousasi is an atrocious style matchup for TRTitor. Now that he’s fighting Dad Boditor he should win in a walk. Vitor is dangerous for about 3 minutes but as soon as he faces some resistance he wilts and despite having a BJJ black belt he seems to be regressing as a grappler. That’s not where you wanna be against the hellacious top game of Mousasi. Gegard gonna work the man over on top. Mousasi. TKO (mount strikes). Round 2.
Dayne Fox: I’m not a part of the seemingly endless mob of Belfort haters. I just don’t like what I’ve seen out of him recently. It took a Mack truck to stop Mousasi against Uriah Hall and though Belfort can unleash that type of offense, we all know to expect that from Belfort early. Mousasi survives an early flurry and takes a stoppage the next round. Mousasi via TKO of RD2
Staff picking Belfort: Tim
Staff picking Mousasi: Mookie, Bissell, Nick, Phil, Eddie, Jed, Anton, Stephie, Zane, Dayne
Jimi Manuwa vs. Ovince Saint Preux
Mookie Alexander: Right, time for the tiebreaker hedge. I picked Manuwa as a value pick on DraftKings, OSP on Three Amigos Podcast, so I should be picking a draw here just to screw with people. Manuwa is a live dog in this fight. OSP is extremely tough, but Manuwa’s kicks could pose some problems for OSP, and he’s the more technically sound striker. The problem? OSP is strong, he’s the better athlete, and he’s demonstrated heavy hands and a decent set of skills on the ground. Picking Manuwa for the upset on the basis that he wins with weird injury TKOs and OSP nearly got injury TKO’d vs. Feijao is perfectly justifiable, buuuuuuut I can’t commit to it. Ovince Saint Preux by TKO, round 3.
Victor: Manuwa’s a very capable fighter that moved up the ranks through a bit of luck with both Cyril Diabate and Ryan Jimmo (RIP) both suffering injuries during his fights against them. His boxing is still good, his takedown defense isn’t bad, but he could very easily get overpowered by a large, strong and fast opponent like St Preux. Ovince’s use of range as well as his power could spell doom for Jimi. Ovince is still very rough around the edges, but he’s got enough skills to get the win.
Phil Mackenzie: Two good athletes who got into the game somewhat late and without the traditional skillset grounding. If he keeps this on the feet, Manuwa can absolutely win this. OSP hits extremely hard, but he’s no technical marvel. However, he has two major advantages: he’s absurdly, ridiculously tough (and Manuwa is not), and he’s a decent offensive wrestler (Manuwa is not). OSP isn’t Gustafsson or Rumble- while he can certainly blow Manuwa away, I think we probably get something of a conservative top control decision. OSP by unanimous decision
Eddie: The only complete fight that I’ve seen from Manuwa was his decision victory over Jan Blachowicz. OSP on the other hand has hurt high level competition without the most polished of techniques. Not to mention, OSP just went the distance with one of the greatest fighters of all time in Jon Jones. As far as Jimi goes, ya’ gotta’ show me something! Ovince Saint Preux by Submission (Calf Slicer a la ‘09 OSP).
Staff picking Manuwa:
Staff picking OSP: Mookie, Nick, Victor, Bissell, Phil, Eddie, Tim, Anton, Stephie, Zane, Dayne
Daniel Omielanczuk vs. Stefan Struve
Anton Tabuena: Heavyweights will heavyweight, but Struve should be the better overall fighter here. Stefan Struve by TKO.
Mookie Alexander: Oh no, a heavyweight fight. Tempted to pick Omielanczuk since he can grind Struve out, but … yeah. Omielanczuk is pretty unwatchable. There’s very little we can ascertain from Struve quickly destroying what’s left of a very very very shot Bigfoot Silva, but Struve is a much more viable threat to finish than Daniel is. I think Daniel fades in the later rounds and Struve busts him up standing for the win. Stefan Struve by unanimous decision.
Victor: Omielanczuk has the typical strange career arc of a stocky European heavyweight with lot of meat and potatoes to start things off but some legit competition that isn’t exactly knocking anyone’s socks off later on. He did some decent work in KSW and made it to the UFC where he made his debut by slaying the mighty NANDOR, vanquisher of cowards. He’s going to have a very bad night here, though. Struve may be the poster boy of a tall fighter not using his range effectively, but after all his time with Henri Hooft he showed some improvement even if it was against a very shot Bigfoot Silva. Struve also has a killer submission game, and I don’t see Daniel bullying Stefan around to get top control. Stefan Struve by TKO.
Phil Mackenzie: Omielanczuk is deeply average, in a surprisingly unheavyweight way. He can take a shot, wrestle, strike a bit, grapple a bit, keep a pace... but he has almost nothing dynamic to his game. That doesn’t seem to bode well here. If someone has even a smidge of dynamism, they’re a threat to Stefan Struve, who is offensively fantastic and defensively utterly woeful. Without the wrestling to keep Struve down or the power (?) necessary to finish him, Struve’s surprisingly good power, pace and offensive grappling will all get their chance to get play. Stefan Struve by TKO, round 2.
Staff picking Omielanczuk: Bissell, Zane, Dayne
Staff picking Struve: Nick, Victor, Phil, Eddie, Mookie, Tim, Anton, Stephie
Mirsad Bektic vs. Russell Doane
Mookie Alexander: We just had a massive upset with Moreno beating Smolka last week, but this … this would be something. Doane looked better than ever but still lost to Pedro Munhoz. Now he’s going up in weight, having lost 3 in a row, fighting arguably the best prospect at 145 lbs, on extremely short notice. Short of Bektic having any cage rust due to his torn ACL and 17 months out, this will be pure domination. Mirsad Bektic by submission, round 2.
Victor: It’s really going to be difficult for Doane to deal with Bektic’s wrestling and top pressure, plus how explosive Bektic can be. Mirsad has deceptive cardio, and doesn’t fall off as drastically as some fighters that carry a lot of muscle on their frame do. Doane is good, but seems like he got rushed and hit a wall. He’ll continue to struggle here and get dragged into deep water. Mirsad Bektic by decision.
Jed: Bektic is an elite prospect with a woodchipper like top game and very strong wrestling. Doane isn’t a very good defensive wrestler, accepted this fight on very short notice, and is heinously bad about giving up his back. That is pretty much a perfect storm of beatdown. Bektic. Rear-naked choke. Round 2.
Phil Mackenzie: Doane looked like his style finally clicked last time. He was switching stances, kicking into punch combinations and vice versa, and essentially looked a long way from the aggressive and limited wrestler he used to be. Then he got tapped out. C’est la vie. This fight kind of sucks, then, because it puts him on a four-fight skid if he loses. I think this new version of Doane might make it interesting, though. Bektic is very athletic and very technically sound but he’s never fought anyone as purely unorthodox or quick as Doane (I would describe Skelly as "ragged" rather than unorthodox for what it’s worth). That doesn’t mean I like Doane to win, but I think he might be able to Vannata it up a bit. Mirsad Bektic by submission, round 3.
Staff picking Bektic: Mookie, Nick, Victor, Jed, Bissell, Tim, Anton, Zane, Stephie, Dayne
Staff picking Doane:
Iuri Alcantara vs. Brad Pickett
Mookie Alexander: This is a really tight call. Pickett is well past his best but is still ridiculously tough to put away, and is willing to trade strike-for-strike almost to a fault. It’s a strategy that could work if he effectively pressures the Brazilian. Alcantara has underwhelming takedown defense and won’t kill you with high volume with his striking, particularly his boxing, but he’s also got a big frame for 135 that may pose problems for Pickett. I think we’ll see a fun fight with exciting scrambles on the mat, and in a real coinflip fight, Alcantara will do just enough to edge out the Brit on his home turf. Iuri Alcantara by split decision.
Victor: Alcantara’s got some great grappling offense and defense, but Pickett’s ground game is severely underrated as he has more submissions on his record than TKOs/KOs or decisions. Pickett may not be able to hang with the top of the division anymore, but he can certainly still outwork Alcantara on his feet and work effective scrambles on the ground to work his way to a solid win. Brad Pickett by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Two old bantamweights put on what should be a really fun fight. Alcantara's MO used to be that he'd put out one burst of incredible offense at the beginning of a fight, then slide back into a second gear where he was merely decent. The burst seems to be gone, so the question is essentially whether Alcantara's second gear is enough to beat a clearly faded Pickett? I think the answer is yes, but a qualified yes. Pickett will put endless pressure on him if he doesn't get finished, and will likely pick up the third round at least. I think Alcantara probably picks up one and two, but Pickett is a live dog with something of a knack for picking up weird cards (a split vs Wineland, beating Rivera etc). Iuri Alcantara by split decision.
Staff picking Alcantara: Mookie, Nick, Bissell, Phil, Tim, Zane
Staff picking Pickett: Victor, Anton, Stephie, Dayne
Damian Stasiak vs. Davey Grant
Mookie Alexander: Davey Grant sounds like the name of a 1960s lead singer for a British Invasion band. I made this joke 3 years ago when he fought on the TUF 18 Finale, but it’s worth rehashing. Anyway, not a particularly inspiring matchup, but I’ll go with Stasiak for the upset. Damian Stasiak by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Davey Grant is no defensive wizard- one of those fighters who is dangerous precisely because he pays no attention to what’s coming his way other than as an opportunity to hit his opponent. Stasiak has largely been a control and submit wrestler in his UFC career, and thus doesn’t really have the defensive chops or the firepower to overcome what should be a decent advantage in sheer offensive output. Davey Grant by unanimous decision.
Eddie: Davey Grant has the offensive abilities to make it a long night for Damian Stasiak. On the flipside, Grant has been known to show his back a time or two, and that is exactly what you do not want to do with Damian Stasiak, who, by the way, has Rear-Naked Choked 5 of his 9 victims. Damian Stasiak by Submission (RNC) in Round 1.
Staff picking Stasiak: Mookie, Eddie
Staff picking Grant: Nick, Bissell, Phil, Tim, Anton, Zane, Stephie, Dayne
Leon Edwards vs. Albert Tumenov
Mookie Alexander: Destruction is abound. Edwards is violent but only violent in spurts. Tumenov is violent 24/7 and he will hurt Edwards with one of his dangerous combinations against the fence and get the finish. Albert Tumenov by KO, round 2.
Victor: It’s hard for me to pick against a K-Dojo fighter, because usually they use their grappling effectively and rarely do they have anyone that’s a slouch in the striking department. Edwards can be very dangerous standing and dismantles guys with a steady pace and a nice range game, but seeing how Kamaru Usman used his top control to grind out a win, it’s not hard to see how Tumenov can do something similar once Edwards begins to tire out from defending takedowns and they inevitably end up on the ground. Albert Tumenov by TKO due to ground strikes, round 3.
Phil Mackenzie: Edwards is a very good athlete, something which Tumenov has struggled a bit with, but he’s also very willing to circle and drop his volume, which is something which Tumenov absolutely feasts on. Einstein’s astonishingly tough, and willing to take some licks so that he can force the opponent up against the cage and then keep them corralled there with the head kicks and the body shots. Albert Tumenov by unanimous decision
Jed: It’s always interesting to see if anyone can beat Tumenov. Beating Tumenov requires a lot of coordination and stamina. Leon Edwards has both of those things and he also does good work with his hands, which is a helpful skill for beating Tumenov. That being said, "Einstein" is the better overall fighter and it’s proven to be very difficult to beat Tumenov. Tumenov. Decision.
Staff picking Edwards: Bissell
Staff picking Tumenov: Mookie, Nick, Victor, Phil, Eddie, Tim, Anton, Zane, Stephie, Dayne
Marc Diakiese vs. Lukasz Sajewski
Mookie Alexander: Sajewski got stung far too many times against Gilbert Burns, and Diakiese has more power, is more comfortable on the feet, and is more athletic than Burns. He’s a legitimately compelling prospect to watch. Diakiese is going to beat up Wookie, who’s not related to me, even though his nickname is just "Mookie" with the M turned upside down. Marc Diakiese by KO, round 1.
Victor: Sajewski seems to really fall behind when facing someone that’s a more complete athlete than him and ends up getting bullied without the ability to rally from behind and pull a win out of a hat in his current UFC run. Diakiese is a BAMMA champion, and a hell of a spectacle to watch, too. He hits hard, has surprising precision with a knack for closing the distance faster than his opponents expect. He’s the best free-agent signing in a while, and you really need to keep an eye on him. Sad thing is Wookie gonna get slept. Marc Diakese via KO/TKO, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Diakiese is just a wellspring of ridiculous athletic potential. Fighters like Jake Matthews and Sage have shown that it takes a bit more than just athleticism, particularly in the elite divisions, so take this one with the appropriate touch of caution. He’ll probably just blow Sajewski away, but Wookie is pretty tough and aggressive, and Diakiese has been hurt and put in bad grappling situations before. Still. Marc Diakiese by KO, round 1.
Jed: The athletic gap here is substantial. Goodnight Sajewski. Diakiese. KO. Round 2.
Staff picking Diakiese: Mookie, Nick, Victor, Bissell, Phil, Jed, Tim, Anton, Stephie, Dayne
Staff picking Sajewski:
Mike Perry vs. Danny Roberts
Mookie Alexander: This is one of those fights where the later it drags on, the more it favors Roberts. Perry hits hard, but I’d like to think Roberts is a tad more defensively sound than Hyun Gyu Lim, whose defensive rating is somehow below 0. It’s a well booked fight, but I think Roberts has a more well-rounded skillset, and he’ll take a decision. Danny Roberts by unanimous decision.
Victor: Despite the controversies that surround him, Mike Perry hits very, very hard and his record shows he’s just been great at brutalizing dudes. He’s gotten very good for a guy that literally got out of jail and went to a UFC gym. That said, he wasn’t exactly fighting anything that resembled top-shelf talent and he realistically should have never gotten past Hyun Gyu Lim. That was a bit of a frustrating fight due to Lim repeatedly walking into punches and eating dirt. Danny Roberts doesn’t play that. Perry’s going to fight a guy with legit boxing ability, crazy drive, a less drastic weight cut, decent wrestling, great knees and a mean left hand plus an actual submission game. Perry’s going to hit his ceiling right here. Roberts by decision.
Phil Mackenzie: It’s time for me to pull off one of the most complex structured products in MMA picking, namely The Sadness Cheater Hedge, when you pick against the person you want to win when you’ve already picked them elsewhere. I can’t shake the fact that Perry just looked better than Roberts last time out. His footwork was tighter, he was more diverse in the striking (leg kick, hook and cross as opposed to just liver kick and cross) and he showed the ability to draw counters. I can’t help but feel that people are picking against him en masse because he’s just such an enormous wally. Mike Perry by TKO, round 2. I feel dirty.
Jed: Danny Roberts is behind the athletic curve here and Perry is actually a sneakily talented fighter for the limited game that he has. He counters very well and has an innate understanding of attacking openings. Roberts got dropped by a left hook from Steele 10 seconds into the fight and that’s one of the few punches Perry throws. I want it to be known that I hate doing this, but Mike Perry. TKO. Round 1.
Staff picking Perry: Phil, Jed, Tim, Stephie
Staff picking Roberts: Mookie, Nick, Victor, Bissell, Anton, Zane, Dayne
Adriano Martins vs. Leo Santos
Mookie Alexander: Ahh yes, the Brazil vs. Brazil matchup that must have accidentally wound up on the England card. Santos has improved his kickboxing considerably, but Martins is the more agile fighter with more powerful striking, and he has a dangerous ground game of his own. Santos has made strides, but Martins is the better fighter. Adriano Martins by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: This should be a relatively dull kickboxing match. Both fighters have improved late in their career, but both have increasingly moved towards countering. Santos throws a touch more volume, but Martins is a bit stronger and hits harder. Adriano Martins by unanimous decision.
Eddie: Granted, Leonardo Santos TKO’d Kevin Lee in the first round of his last outing; however, I am uncertain of Santos’ ability to remain safe on the feet if he cannot get the fight to the ground. Martins is no slouch on the ground and packs a wallop. Adriano Martins by TKO in Round 1.
Jed: Santos is improving as a kickboxer and I’m not sold on Martins. This probably stays on the feet but Martins doesn’t throw a lot of volume so give me a minor upset with Santos taking a decision based purely on attacking more. Santos. Decision.
Staff picking Martins: Mookie, Nick, Bissell, Phil, Eddie, Anton, Zane, Stephie, Dayne
Staff picking Santos: Jed, Tim