Yeah… this isn’t the best PPV of the year. It may even be the worst. Then again, we have to wait for it to play out before we would be able to officially call it a lost cause. However, my enthusiasm for this card is more than a little bit tempered and I know I’m not the only one. Out of the three main card fights I’m discussing in this preview of the early main card contests, only one of them feels like a reasonable contest to be on a PPV main card. Even then, I know there aren’t a lot of people who are clamoring to see Ovince St. Preux and Jimi Manuwa square off. It’s a good fight, just not a sexy one.
I’ve promised not to lie to the public about whether or not a card is worth watching. In the case of a PPV, it’s whether or not it is worth buying. This one is probably worth passing on. Unless of course you severely hope to see Vitor Belfort or Dan Henderson lose in dramatic fashion. Seeing as how the likelihood of that happening is quite high… wait. I’m not supposed to be covering those contests. Sorry… I couldn’t help it. There really isn’t much I can say to hype these other contests.
The UFC 204 main card kicks off at 10:00 PM ET/7:00 PM PT
Ovince St. Preux (19-8) vs. Jimi Manuwa (15-2), Light Heavyweight
It seemed a given we’d eventually see these two athletic 205ers collide at some point. Both are legit top ten fighters, but not quite good enough to be elite.
Some believe that St. Preux acquitted himself well fighting Jon Jones on short notice as he went the full 25 minutes with the former champ after breaking his arm early in the contest. Others feel it was a lackluster performance from both sides, particularly from St. Preux who simply seemed content to go the distance against an all-time great rather than going for the win. The hope from St. Preux’s camp is that it gives him a confidence boost knowing he can go the distance with the best.
Manuwa’s last contest was a bit more devastating as he was finished in an easy fashion by Anthony Johnson over a year ago. The loss seemed to put a definitive cap on Manuwa’s ability to break into the elite himself, especially seeing as how he is already 36-years old, as he got a late start on his MMA career. Regardless, he has shown above average athletic ability and hits hard, so he can’t ever be counted out of any fight.
Despite what Manuwa brings to the table, St. Preux may actually have a slight advantage in terms of pure athleticism as his high level college football background helps to attest to. In fact, he relies very heavily on his physical gifts as he isn’t a very technical striker. The one thing he does very well is establish distance with his 80" reach by jabbing the hell out of his opponent. Occasionally he mixes in a power hook, though he usually prefers to let his opponent come at him and display his power on the counter. It doesn’t result in a whole lot of volume being thrown on his part, but it has worked well for him thus far.
Part of the problem in relying so heavily on physical gifts is dealing with opponents who have similar gifts themselves. Manuwa’s 79" reach nearly matches that of St. Preux and he is a much more technical striker. Then again, Manuwa doesn’t exactly use that to his advantage anyway. A pressure fighter, Manuwa throws measured punching combinations with great accuracy in the pocket. He mixes in a steady diet of kicks to all levels too. Where he is at his best is in the clinch as he rips into the body and head with knees from the Thai clinch.
Neither makes taking the fight to the ground a big part of their arsenal, but that doesn’t mean that they aren’t capable of taking the fight there when the opportunity presents itself. St. Preux has an explosive reactionary double-leg who does a solid job of controlling from the top with his massive frame. He’s shown some creativity in his submissions too, though he doesn’t go for those very often. Manuwa doesn’t have much in terms of traditional wrestling, though he has some trips and throws in the clinch if he so desires to use them. Don’t expect him to do that though as most of his grappling skills are to help him climb back to his feet.
This is a very difficult fight to project. Both are fantastic athletes with long reaches that could use polish in their wrestling and on the ground in order to move up to the next level. While I don’t believe either is easy to put away, St. Preux has shown greater resilience to being finished as well as greater explosion. I’ll pick him to finish the Brit, but I’m not doing so with any sort of confidence. St. Preux via TKO of RD2
Stefan Struve (27-8) vs. Daniel Omielanczuk (19-5-1), Heavyweight
A pair of lower ranked heavyweights look to move up the rankings as a few of the elder statesmen of the division show signs of slipping.
Struve has been in the UFC since 2009, which makes it easy to forget that he is the youngest heavyweight in the UFC rankings at 28-years old. The problem is that you’d be hard pressed to find a 28-year old with more wear and tear on their body than the 7-footer. He has been rounding into shape since remedying his heart issue from a couple of years ago, but it is still unknown whether or not he can reach the potential he once upon a time displayed.
Omielanczuk hasn’t had much hype around him, making a quiet debut three years ago. It took him a while to find his bearings, though it appears he has done so as he has won three contests in a row. The problem is that none of his opponents that he defeated are noteworthy. This is his opportunity to boost his name recognition. At 34-years old, he isn’t too old to be making a run in a division ruled by dinosaurs.
The most intriguing part of this contest will be the standup as Omielanczuk comes in as one of the shortest heavyweights on the roster at 6'0" while Struve is the tallest fighter in the history of the UFC. Struve would be much more effective if he knew how to consistently use his 84.5" reach. Regardless of how well Struve uses a jab, that reach is not easy for anyone to navigate. As it is, Struve has been trying to develop a jab and making greater use of leg and front kicks. If you can get inside Struve’s reach and touch him up, he’ll engage in a brawl as easy as anyone else. He’s been reluctant to engage at times, but that has been against wrestlers wanting to ground the big man. Omielanczuk is capable of hitting a reactionary takedown, though no one is ready to declare him a major threat.
Where Omielanczuk is likely to find success is in the clinch where Struve’s length and reach are negated. Yes, Struve has some killer knees in that range. But Omielanczuk has increased his pressure in that area while slowly grinding away at the opposition with dirty boxing and short knees, making it an exhausting affair. Don’t let Omielanczuk’s belly fool you. The Pole has a good gas tank. He may have the advantage in the pocket as well with his punching combinations while mixing in the occasional kick to the body or legs.
Any Struve contest offers an interesting dynamic on the ground thanks to his long limbs. Struve may have the best guard in the heavyweight division this side of Fabricio Werdum. Triangle chokes are his specialty and he’s capable of slapping on an armbar as well, making it a risky endeavor anytime his opponent enters his guard. Struve’s confidence off of his back has hurt him as well as opponents have brutalized him with ground strikes while the Dutchman makes no effort to escape from beneath their onslaught. Omielanczuk’s short arms will make it difficult for him to pull that off amidst Struve’s defense, though he can certainly hurt the chinny giant if he can land. Don’t discount Omielanczuk snatching a limb and getting a submission either. He’s no grappling ace, but he is versed enough to snag a choke submission after hurting his opposition.
While I don’t think this is a PPV main card quality contest, I do like this matchup. What I don’t buy is Struve claiming he is back as he declared after his last victory. His two wins since he came back from his heart issues were a decrepit Big Nog and a shot Bigfoot Silva. I haven’t seen anything that makes me believe he is going to be able to get his career where it was after he beat Stipe Miocic, especially in the division where chins are most often tested. I don’t know if Omielanczuk can finish Struve, but I think Omielanczuk’s usually follows a sound strategy to victory. He does so here to an upset. Omielanczuk via decision
Mirsad Bektic (10-0) vs. Russell Doane (14-6), Featherweight
Kind of a lopsided contest as Bektic has won all three of his UFC contests while Doane has lost his last three and is fighting outside of his natural weight class of bantamweight. That’s what last-minute injuries will do to a contest.
Bektic was originally supposed to be fighting Arnold Allen before the young Brit pulled out due to an undisclosed injury. Jeremy Kennedy filled in only to pull out the same day he was announced as the replacement. Now Doane takes what is likely his last opportunity to remain in the UFC’s employ. He looked much improved in his last contest against Pedro Munhoz despite the loss, having the touted prospect on the ropes before being submitted.
Bektic has been on the shelf for 16 months, dealing with a torn ACL. Many expected he would be a contender by now when he entered the UFC about two and a half years ago, but the ACL has prevented that from happening. If he can remain healthy, expect him to begin living up to the high expectations heaped upon him. How high were the expectations? Patrick Wyman listed him as the top prospect in the sport in 2014.
Thus far, Bektic has used his rabid wrestling ability to take down his opponents and tear into them with his overwhelming ground and pound. Though capable of delivering punishment from inside the guard, Bektic is aggressive in looking to pass the guard where he can completely demolish his opponent with his heavy – and I mean HEAVY – ground strikes. Bektic’s aggression occasionally results in the opposition scrambling back to their feet, though he usually drags them back to the ground quickly.
Doane’s strength is on the ground too, but he relies more on speed and quickness as opposed to Bektic’s brutality. Doane is an excellent scrambler with a tight guillotine and excellent back-taking skills, though he’ll be hard pressed to outquick Bektic. Even worse, Doane isn’t a very good defensive wrestler, meaning Bektic’s road to victory appears to be pretty clear. He’ll likely look to be active off of his back to try and catch Bektic in a triangle choke or an armbar. Not the best strategy, but Doane is capable of pulling it off.
Doane may find more success on the feet… if he can keep the fight standing for a sustainable amount of time. Bektic’s striking approach is very simple, largely consisting of a left jab and straight right combo with the occasional teep. Then again, 16 months is a lot of time to add new wrinkles. What really makes Bektic effective his how well he disguises his transitions from striking to the takedown. Doane likes to wing power shots and showed better technique of moving in and out of range in order to land them against Munhoz. He’s still hittable, but he is improving. He often comes out aggressively at a pace that can’t hope to be matched for the course of 15 minutes. The opening salvo will be his best chance for an upset as we still don’t know how rusty Bektic might be returning from injury.
I won’t say Doane doesn’t have a chance. I will say that chance isn’t good. He hasn’t been a good wrestler at bantamweight and is now moving up a weight class against one of the better wrestlers at 145. He could hurt Bektic with a haymaker or catch him in a submission amidst a scramble, but those scenarios are much more unlikely than Bektic simply grinding him into dust. Bektic via TKO of RD2