I won’t argue with the UFC’ s choice to highlight Brad Pickett and Iuri Alcantara as both are longtime veterans who’ve been pretty reliable to provide excitement. But the fight that I’m most excited to see involves young up-and-coming strikers in Albert Tumenov and Leon Edwards. Tumenov is the name most fans recognize, but Edwards may be a better pure athlete. You’re probably fine to miss the middle hour of the prelims, but don’t miss the opener or the final preliminary contest. Trust me on this.
The FS1 prelims start at 8:00 PM ET/5:00 PM PT.
Brad Pickett (25-11) vs. Iuri Alcantara (33-7), Bantamweight
Almost six years since the UFC integrated the WEC and these two longtime vets who were around for that are still hanging around. Despite both having slowed down, they are looking to prove which one is less shopworn.
An admitted favorite of Dana White, Pickett was given a final opportunity to keep his job in his last appearance against Francisco Rivera despite having dropped four of his last five heading into the contest. Many will debate whether Pickett deserved that decision, but no one will ever doubt the fighting spirit of the Englishman. While his career is winding down, he can still provide a test to a youngster or two… or an action fight with another fading vet in this case.
Alcantara has been able to disguise his decline in the win-loss column better than Pickett as he was able to squeak by lesser competition than what Pickett had faced. Nonetheless, the fall in the Brazilian’s skill level has certainly been noticeable and he found himself outside of the top 15 for the first time since the rankings inception following his loss to Jimmie Rivera. At 36-years old, it seems unlikely he’ll climb back into the rankings.
Despite the slippage of both, this is a well-matched contest. Alcantara’s struggles have largely come against opponents with a solid wrestling base. Pickett doesn’t have a traditional wrestling background, but few incorporate it into their striking better than the Brit. His reactive double-leg is outstanding and he is relentless in chaining his attempts against the fence. Much like Alcantara, Pickett’s takedown defense is shaky. He’ll need to be careful to avoid Alcantara’s trips and throws in the clinch as Alcantara is a fantastic positional grappler with underrated submissions.
Where Alcantara is likely to have more success is in the standup. The southpaw uses his 71" reach pretty well with a jab and kicks to the body and legs, all of which he throws with above average accuracy. The problem is that he doesn’t throw enough volume in space, part of the issue being his one-off striking style. The x-factor for him will be the clinch. When he isn’t outmuscled, he rips killer knees into the midsection while also threatening to take down his opponent. However, stronger opponents have been able to negate his abilities there. Seeing as how Pickett isn’t a very big 135er, look for Alcantara to do find success in close quarters.
Pickett doesn’t typically fight in the clinch as it is, preferring to fight from the outside utilizing his boxing abilities. He isn’t a great athlete, so he relies on crafty footwork to find the angles to attack and put together slick punching combinations. As he has aged, he has taken more punishment as he loses some of his limited athleticism. He took a fair amount of damage in the first place thanks to his willingness to stay in the pocket as his chin has traditionally been iron-clad, though it is possible it could be weakening after the vicious KO delivered by Thomas Almeida last year.
Props to Sean Shelby for this contest. Even greater props to him for keeping it together after it fell apart for the Germany card from last month. Both have a bit left to offer after long careers and this is the best way to figure out which one has more left in the tank. I trust Pickett’s wrestling to make up the difference in what should largely be a close contested battle on the feet and a favorite for FOTN. Pickett via decision
Ian Entwistle (9-3) vs. Rob Font (12-2), Bantamweight
To readers in the UK: I don’t mean to be a jerk – or any other insulting adjective you’d like to insert here – but this doesn’t look good for native fighter Entwistle.
The reason I say that is Entwistle is a one-trick pony. I understand that there are plenty of one-trick ponies in the UFC and many of them have had quite a bit of success. So why do I feel differently about Entwistle? His single trick, leg locks, are very low percentage at the highest levels, especially when opponents see it coming.
Font is not only the more dynamic fighter, he’s also someone whom many believe has a bright future in the division. He disposed of respected veteran George Roop in his UFC debut, stopped Joey Gomez, and had been the only one to go the distance with John Lineker since the KO artist made his way to bantamweight… at least until this past weekend. Now many believe the UFC is trying to set him up with a rebound win by putting him opposite of Entwistle.
The beginning of every Entwistle fight is the same: The Brit dives at his opponent’s legs in hopes of the quick finish via leg lock. He garnered ill-will from the MMA community when he complained in the middle of his match that his last opponent, Alejandro Perez, had greased his legs only for the referee telling him to quit pulling that BS. Entwistle showed on the regional scene the ability to transition into a RNC choke on, though there have been no signs that will work for him on the UFC level in three contests as he ends up eating too much damage when he can’t cinch in the heel hook. To be blunt, he doesn’t have the strength, skills, or athletic gifts to survive long if he can’t get it right away.
That isn’t to say that Entwistle has no chance. He did find get Anthony Birchak to tap and no one is going to deny that Birchak is a superior all-around fighter to Entwistle. On that note, Font is far superior all-around as well, but we haven’t seen how well he defends submission attempts at the highest stage. He’s shown the ability to avoid too much damage on the ground and get back to his feet, but it’s a bit different coming from someone trying to pound you out rather than tearing up your leg. The little that we have seen of his takedown defense isn’t exactly encouraging and his long legs are no doubt an inviting target for Entwistle. Nonetheless, he showed toughness eating Lineker’s punches which should indicate that he can handle twisting of his tendons for a while if he needs to.
What Font has shown is some surprisingly heavy fists given his wiry frame. Then again, I don’t think Entwistle will give him the opportunity to utilize his jab on the feet nor will Font be willing to throw his leg kicks. However, I anticipate he’ll be able to use those fists to good use on Entwistle as Entwistle entangles himself beneath him. He’s shown aggression in attacking opponents on the ground and he’ll need that to pull out a win.
Again, I don’t hate Entwistle. I simply find it foolish to pick a leg lock specialist at this level. I admit that he has a chance, but I’m not picking him based on a chance. To be honest, I feel like I’ve spent far more time breaking down this contest than I ever should have. Font is a mean SOB and should knock Entwistle silly. Then again, Birchak is a mean SOB too…. Font via TKO of RD1
Davey Grant (9-2) vs. Damian Stasiak (9-3), Bantamweight
It’s easy to forget these two are on the roster. They aren’t blue-chip prospects. They’ve only fought twice. And neither can be labeled as action-fighters. Might as well throw them together, right?
Grant has a little bit more name value in the MMA-sphere thanks to his stint on the 18th season of TUF when he made it to the finals against Chris Holdsworth. Injuries have put a halt to both of their careers, though Grant has seemingly put those issues behind him. He notched an easy victory over a raw Marlon Vera upon his return from knee issues, but needs to put in a lot more work in order to establish himself as a roster mainstay much less a contender.
Stasiak was given a similarly raw opponent in Filip Pejic as he dropped from 145 to 135 to finish the young Croation in less than half a round. Even more impressive was the manner in which he won as he was outgrappled in his UFC debut against Yaotzin Meza only to easily handle Pejic on the ground for the sub. Like Grant, there aren’t many excited about his long-term potential, though he has shown enough to warrant his opportunity at the very least.
Despite Stasiak’s improvement in his wrestling and grappling, look for him to return to his roots and hope to engage in a striking battle. Grant isn’t a great technical wrestler, though he is adequate in addition to being massive for bantamweight and knows how to use his size to his advantage. Grant is very top heavy and is active in looking for the choke. His ground strikes have served to soften up his opponent for guard passes rather than finishing the fight, though he hits hard enough to finish from there, even from guard. He struggles to get the fight to the ground as he doesn’t explode into his shots, relying more on dragging the opposition to the ground.
Where Grant will have problems is on the feet. He does hit hard and he stays active, but he is stiff and not the most defensively sound fighter. Part of that is due to his style as he is a pressure fighter as he is constantly moving forward and is exacerbated by his lack of speed. Regardless, he is a tough SOB who has proven able to take his fair share of damage. Much like his top control, he uses his size well in the clinch to press the action against the fence and grind away with dirty boxing and knees.
This doesn’t present a favorable stylistic matchup for Stasiak. The Pole isn’t a power-puncher, needing room to land his kicks which is what makes him dangerous on the feet. The karateka doesn’t produce much volume, which is why he has lost the majority of his contests that have gone to decision. As stated, he did look better in his most recent contest on the ground, though much of that might be attributed to Pejic’s lack of experience in addition to Stasiak’s drop down to 135. He’s always been a solid scrambler with serious back-taking skills with the RNC being his signature submission. He’s not very good off of his back, though he is durable and defensively savvy enough that he has never been finished.
This should be Grant’s fight for the taking. Stasiak has done nothing to stop the takedowns of his opponents thus far and that is easily the biggest key in this contest as Grant knows his own strengths and plays to them very well. I don’t expect him to give Stasiak enough room to get off his kicks either, which should make this a pretty easy contest to call, giving the English crowd what they want. Grant via decision
Leon Edwards (11-3) vs. Albert Tumenov (17-3), Welterweight
Do you ever wish the UFC would pair more fighters together who could care less about wrestling or grappling? If so, this is the perfect fight for you.
Edwards is the lesser known of the two, though he’ll have the arena behind him as he is a native Brit. He was almost purely a striker upon his UFC entry, developing some vastly improved wrestling skills since joining AKA to become a better-rounded fighter. He isn’t often mentioned as one of the prospects with a bright future, though if he continues to improve the way he has the 25-year old will force his way into those conversations.
Tumenov is almost always one of the first names brought up in those talks as the 24-year old recently had a five-fight win streak in which he finished three opponents in the first round snapped by grappler extraordinaire Gunnar Nelson. The win streak was capped by an exciting striking battle with top ten welterweight Lorenz Larkin. Tumenov does still need some polish to become a legit contender, though his win over Larkin indicates he may not be as far from that as many believe.
While Tumenov seems to get more attention for his powerful kicks, it was his boxing that brought home the W against Larkin. Just as comfortable attacking as he is countering, Tumenov is great at making in-fight adjustments in order to regularly touch up the opposition. He puts together smooth combinations while fluidly mixing in kicks. A jab is often seen early to measure distance before he starts pressuring with heavier strikes. Once he back the opposition against the cage, Tumenov unloads with boxing combinations in addition to his vaunted head kicks.
Avoiding the fence will be a major challenge for Edwards as he prefers to stay on the outside, using his speed and quickness to blitz with his attack. On the flip side, he’s comfortable countering well as his fast hands and feet often find a home before his opposition has finished their attack. The southpaw has a particularly potent left hand and just as many kicks in his arsenal as Tumenov. Edwards’ clinch work has improved immensely too, with knees to the body and trip takedowns that opponents can’t sleep on.
Look for Edwards to try and implement those takedowns to give Tumenov something else to think about at the very least. The Russian has lost every one of his UFC fights in which he has been taken down, though he typically has strong takedown defense. Edwards isn’t overly skilled on the ground, though he is a fast scrambler and capable of getting ahold of the neck for a choke. Don’t expect Tumenov to take the fight to the ground unless he catches one of Edwards kicks and drives him to the mat.
Tumenov is understandably the favorite, though Edwards has the skill set to give him problems. If Edwards has developed a quick double-leg entry, he’s capable of pulling off the upset. Otherwise, he doesn’t throw enough volume on the feet to match what Tumenov has to offer. However, Tumenov made some good adjustments following his UFC debut loss and I’d expect him to do the same thing here. Tumenov lands more volume to overcome any possible takedowns Edwards lands in a potential FOTN. Tumenov via decision