As was the case the first time they met, Cain Velasquez is the betting favorite against Fabricio Werdum for their UFC 207 showdown.
Velasquez, a former two-time champion, lost the belt to Werdum at UFC 188. The usually unrelenting wrestle-boxer tired in the second round and eventually succumbed to a guillotine choke in the third.
Fans claimed Velasquez’s fatigue stemmed from the high altitude of Mexico City (7,350 ft), and MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa believes this, along with other factors, have affected the odds heading into UFC 207.
Speaking to MMA Junkie in a recent interview, Oddessa revealed why he has Velasquez as the early -175 favorite over the +145 underdog Werdum.
“The Cain Velasquez -175 price gives merit to the excuses for his loss to Werdum in Mexico City,” Oddessa said. “The altitude, layoff and lack of preparation were all factors taken into account in the pricing of the rematch. A healthy Cain Velasquez should avenge the second loss of his UFC career and line himself up for a title shot against current champ Stipe Miocic.”
It wasn’t just Velasquez who had problems at Arena Ciudad de Mexico, as MMA veteran Nate Marquardt cited blood pressure problems and the usually relentless Eddie Alvarez and Gilbert Melendez seemed to tire heavily in the co-main event.
Velasquez sprung back into the winners column with an impressive first round TKO of Travis Browne and Werdum ended up losing the HW belt in his first title defense against Stipe Miocic. ‘Vai Cavalo’ did go on to beat Browne via unanimous decision at the recent UFC 203 pay-per-view.
Oddessa, owner of betting site ODDESSA.com, also cited Velasquez’s successful rematches with Junior dos Santos.
“If recent history or statistics are any indication of what will happen in Las Vegas, they would appear to favor Cain Velasquez,” Oddessa said. “In rematches, Cain has avenged the only other loss of his UFC career, against Junior Dos Santos – not just one, but two times, while looking even more impressive in each outing.”
Velasquez vs. Werdum II is slated for UFC 207, the highly anticipated pay-per-view that will host Ronda Rousey’s comeback fight against newly-crowned bantamweight champion Amanda Nunes. The event takes place on December 30 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, Nevada.