The Bloody Elbow staff has made its predictions for tomorrow night's big UFC on FOX card in New Jersey. Only Phil Mackenzie and Stephie Haynes are going with Ryan Bader to pull off the upset win over Anthony Johnson in the main event. Rather surprisingly, we have more staffers picking Ben Rothwell than Josh Barnett in the co-main event. Rainer Lee and Fraser Coffeen are picking Iuri Alcantara over Jimmie Rivera, and only Nick Baldwin was brave enough to go for the Bryan Barberena over Sage Northcutt upset special.
Note: Predictions are entered throughout the week and collected on Friday. Explanations behind each pick are not required and some writers opt not to do so for their own reasons. For example, if Phil Mackenzie entered all of his predictions on Tuesday without adding in any explanations, he has no idea if he's going to be the only one siding with one fighter for any given fight.
Note 2: Read Phil Mackenzie's pick for Kevin Casey vs. Rafael Natal. DO IT!
Ryan Bader vs. Anthony Johnson
Mookie Alexander: This fight is pretty cut and dry. Bader wins this if he weathers the storm, Johnson tires out, and "Darth" can put on a wrestling clinic and probably get a submission win. If he can't do that, then Rumble will dust him within 2 rounds, not because Bader hasn't improved his striking on offense and defense, but because Johnson is that potent offensively. He has wicked punching power and huge head kicks. Rumble's takedown defense is mostly excellent, and we've never really seen him badly rocked standing. I can see a path to victory for Bader, I just can't see him pulling it off. Anthony Johnson by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Anthony Johnson should be good enough to win this fight wherever it goes and however long it lasts. Really and truly, he should be. But, he fights like he has to win in the first 3 minutes or he's going to lose, and because he fights like that, it's sort of a self fulfilling prophecy. Unchecked pressure and aggression is a great way to hurt opponents early, but it also tires you quickly and gives a lot of opportunities for counter shots and takedowns. Still, Johnson's good enough that he catches just about everyone early and only the stupid tough survive long enough to beat him. Bader is good and could weather and win, but he's not stupid tough when it comes to eating hard shots. Anthony Johnson by KO, Round 1.
Staff picking Bader: Phil, Stephie
Staff picking Johnson: Nick, Rainer, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Fraser
Josh Barnett vs. Ben Rothwell
Mookie Alexander: I don't really have any solid reasoning for picking Rothwell. He's never shown himself to be a better fighter than Barnett, and he has a tendency to be slow and completely inert on offense before unleashing a random burst of fight-ending violence. Barnett is definitely better than him on the ground, in the clinch, and has better cardio. But it's heavyweight, so all of that logic gets thrown out of the window. I think Rothwell is the more likely of the two to get a finish, as tough as it is to finish Barnett, but I'm going to gamble here and assure myself another inaccurate heavyweight prediction. Ben Rothwell by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: I'm pretty much with Mookie on this one. Barnett is tough as hell, a better grappler and probably a better clinch fighter too, but it's honestly been forever since he beat a top flight heavyweight in the prime of their game... Like 2006 Big Nog forever. That's not to say that Rothwell is a top flight heavyweight, but his recent KO of Alistair Overeem is more impressive than anything recent on Barnett's record. That said, that loss to Gabriel Gonzaga is also less impressive than anything recent on Barnett's record. Still, I don't have enough faith in Barnett's wrestling game (or his win over Roy Nelson) to give him the nod here. Ben Rothwell via TKO, Round 1.
Staff picking Barnett: Phil, Tim, Fraser
Staff picking Rothwell: Nick, Rainer, Stephie, Mookie, Zane
Iuri Alcantara vs. Jimmie Rivera
Mookie Alexander: Alcantara has looked increasingly less impressive over his past few fights (the Vaughan Lee KO as the lone exception). He's way too willing to fight in a way that loses him rounds (see: Saenz fight) and doesn't have any sense of urgency when he's behind. Alcantara has a good ground game and effective, varied striking when he actually throws, but his volume fluctuates too much for him to be a consistently dangerous threat. On the flip side, I'm really impressed with the tightness and sharpness of Rivera's boxing. He strings together his combinations quite well and packs a good punch. Rivera lacks a kicking game, which is a concern, but if the fight is contested at a reasonably fast pace and his takedown defense remains on point, I see him taking over in the late stages of the fight and winning on points. There's a chance that Rivera could go for takedowns himself considering how Alcantara doesn't have any sort of strong defensive wrestling, but I think it'll be only a striking contest. Jimmie Rivera by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Two things which will serve Jimmie Rivera well which he demonstrated in his last fight- a great chin and ironclad takedown defense. Iuri's an awesome fighter for a few minutes, but he always settles into a lower pace afterwards. He's also back at his old gym- he looked pretty bad after his Jackson-Wink experiment, but I would have liked to see him give it one more try. Rivera should be able to withstand the early storm and pick up the next two rounds relatively handily. Jimmie Rivera by unanimous decision.
Zaen Simon: Alcantara is powerful and wild, but he's not a good striker long term and while he's a solid grappler he's not an elite wrestler either. Because he doesn't land shots consistently enough to KO most opponents and because Rivera is good at staying upright and returning fire, it seems like Rivera should be able to weather an early storm and take the decision win with a solid and consistent striking game. Jimmie Rivera by Decision.
Staff picking Alcantara: Rainer, Fraser
Staff picking Rivera: Nick, Stephie, Mookie, Phil, Tim, Zane
Bryan Barberena vs. Sage Northcutt
Mookie Alexander: Just saying, if Sage Northcutt is thinking about a permanent move to welterweight, I have a Diaz brother on line 1 with a few words for him. Anyway, Barberena is a decent fighter at lightweight and could pose some problems for Northcutt on the feet, but taking this fight on short notice against a much better, higher-upside athlete doesn't really persuade me into going with the upset here. Sage Northcutt via kindness.
Phil Mackenzie: Was tempted, not gonna lie. Northcutt is still really, really raw. The takedowns he gave up and his general work from bottom against Pfister was all pretty awful. Barberena is more offensively well-equipped than Pfister and just physically stronger. However, he's not as much of a grappler, instead wading and trading on the feet. Even if Northcutt struggles with protracted standup exchanges (as he well might), he can likely blast double Barberena whenever he wants. If this happens people will complain but Sage Northcutt by unanimous decision(?)
Zane Simon: I think Northcutt loses in 2016, but I don't think it will be this fight. Watching tape, Barberena starts too slow, is too hittable against aggressive strikers, and is primed for reactive takedowns when he throws combinations. That essentially sets him up for everything that Northcutt does well early. That said, if Northcutt doesn't stop him early (and Barberena is tough) then Barberena really does gain momentum well and I wouldn't be shocked to see Northcutt run out of ideas trying to work the same few techniques over and over. Still, Northcutt is just too bad a matchup early for me to take that route here, even if I'm not 100% confident in him yet. Sage Northcutt via TKO, Round 2.
Staff picking Barberena: Nick
Staff picking Northcutt: Rainer, Stephie, Mookie, Phil, Tim, Zane, Fraser
Jake Ellenberger vs. Tarec Saffiedine
Mookie Alexander: What gives me pause re picking Saffiedine is that he's had an injury-riddled UFC career, and his #11 welterweight ranking is almost entirely based on beating Nate Marquardt (who had KO'd Woodley) in Strikeforce. I'm not really sold on Saffiedine's top 15 status, but I'm really not sold on Ellenberger as a top 15 welterweight right now. Ellenberger made a good call by ditching Tarverdyan and returning to Kings MMA, but I don't know how much Cordeiro can peg away at whatever is wrong with Jake right now. I think his best chance to win is to make it ugly and outwrestle Saffiedine. He's never offered much from top control, so that's an issue in itself. Saffiedine is probably going to destroy Ellenberger with leg kicks and his smooth, if power-lacking striking. Tarec Saffiedine by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: The most interesting thing about this fight is the way the two of them have both left outdated (or just straight bad) camps to go to the elite. As Mookie said above, Jake to Kings from GFC, but also Tarec to Tristar. If anyone can bring back Ellenberger's aggression, Cordeiro can, but I honestly think that being a frontrunner has coloured his whole career going back to his loss to Story on the regionals. Ellenberger's best moments have historically come from wrecking people who rely on their durability, but Saffiedine isn't going to trade fire, he's going to try to break Ellenberger down, and I don't think that plays well with how dispirited Jake has looked lately. Tarec Saffiedine by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Jake Ellenberger's recent fights are not confidence builders for his performance here. Saffiedine has a style that I expect to cause Ellenberger all sorts of trouble. And while he generally isn't a KO machine, I could see him getting either a leg kick TKO, or a rare straight KO over the gunshy Ellenberger. Tarec Saffiedine via TKO (leg kicks), Round 3.
Staff picking Ellenberger: Rainer, Tim
Staff picking Saffiedine: Nick, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Zane, Fraser
Olivier Aubin-Mercier vs. Diego Ferreira
Phil Mackenzie: Ferreira's excellent BJJ appears to be used as something of a safety net which allows him to go nuts on the feet. This has left him in trouble against more technical grapplers (Dariush) and better strikers (Poirier). OAM should be developing some striking at some point, but at the moment he's still almost entirely grappling focused, and I think he comes into the first bracket. If he can hit reactive takedowns when Ferreira swings without getting tapped and keep enough control of the scrambles he can pick up a close decision which could either be very fun or completely awful. Olivier Aubin-Mercier by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I'm willing to take a shot on the underdog here. OAM is a great athlete, great takedown artist, and decent grappler, but he's still a bad striker. And he has yet to face a really good, experienced athletic grappler in his career, to really test his ground game. He might just overpower Ferreira on the mat, but if he does so, that should be something to be impressed and a bit surprised by, rather than expected. I expect this to be an ugly close decision, but Carlos Diego Ferreira by split decision.
Staff picking OAM: Rainer, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Fraser
Staff picking Ferreira: Nick, Tim, Zane
Kevin Casey vs. Rafael Natal
Mookie Alexander: Look, I'm just here to read Phil's comments like the rest of you. Rafael Natal by split decision.
Phil Mackenzie: In the great and generic land of Middleweight, the wind blew around the castle of Lord Natal the Born, and chaos rode the wind like the embers of a fire."Dead?" said Natal to his servant. "...dead?"
"He returned to his barbarian homeland of 205, my Lord. He was wearied from his time battling the Top Ten, and was slain by Short Fuse." said Santos. "The slayer shall not return to our lands, however. The Scrappers are kingless."
Natal gazed into the distance, remembering generic fights past. "I battled him once, you know. This... Short Fuse."
"You did, My Lord?" Santos could not hide his surprise.
"Indeed. I mean, probably, anyway. I think?" He shook himself from his reverie. "Enough. What of our own ‘King?'"
This last was spoken with a profound bitterness, and Santos winced. "The Prodigal Leites goes Moose hunting."
"Does he indeed?" Natal gave a snort of contempt. "A few short battles returned and all anyone can talk of is ‘Leites, Leites.' Knock outs? Pah. This is not... has never been the BJJ Guys with Suspect Gas Tanks way."
"He fought well against the King of the Powerless Volume Punchers," offered Santos. "Some even think that he w..." he trailed off as he saw the look in his lord's eyes. He had no wish to incite Natal's wrath, which could last for up to nine minutes.
"The world has become merciless, Bruno." said Natal, abruptly turning away. "Scrapper against Scrapper. BJJ Guy against BJJ Guy. Cold, yes. But also a time to prove that the crown Leites took, never truly lost, is mine still. If I must destroy some of my own people and damn myself, then I will, and gladly." His eyes gleamed. "In fact, Bruno, I will begin my path to dethrone a false King with another ‘King'. Bring me... the BJJ Guy with the most suspect gas tank of all." Rafael Natal by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: I think we're done here.
Staff picking Casey:
Staff picking Natal: Nick, Rainer, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Tim, Zane, Fraser
Dustin Ortiz vs. Wilson Reis
Mookie Alexander: Reis is a good fighter who is just a step below top 10 competition. Ortiz is a very good fighter who is just a step below top 5 competition, and even then I'd argue he might be able to contend in due time. I expect some fun scrambles out of this one but Ortiz has more tools to win and wear Reis down over the course of the contest. Dustin Ortiz by unanimous decision.
Phil Mackenzie: Dustin Ortiz is something of a Chas Skelly for flyweight. Ugly but functional striking (which is notably cleaner than Skelly's), strong wrestling and scrambling, and absolute boatloads of aggression and durability. Reis is a bit of a pot-shotter, looking for the counter left straight or the body kick, and on the feet I think Ortiz can just drown him with pace. The wrestling and grappling is another (and much more interesting) question, but I think they'll largely cancel each other there. Dustin Ortiz by unanimous decision.
Zane Simon: Not that Ray Borg is Wilson Reis, but Dustin Ortiz has shown himself more than capable of hanging on the mat with electrifying flyweight grapplers. He's a guy that is almost impossble to outwork everywhere. Out-grapple him and he'll out-box you. Out-strike him and he'll out-wrestle you. Reis is a great and fun grappler, but his striking is a bit like Iuri Alcantara's in that he's capable of landing huge single strikes, but incapable of following up with the necessary shots to get something other than a flash KO. Given Ortiz's iron jaw, and solid high output boxing, and given Ortiz's ability to stay competitive through incredible scrambles, I just don't see an avenue for Reis to win. Dustin Ortiz via decision.
Staff picking Ortiz: Nick, Rainer, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Tim, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Reis:
George Sullivan vs. Alexander Yakovlev
Phil Mackenzie: George Sullivan is big and mean and a bit clunky. Yakovlev is probably the technically cleaner fighter, but he just doesn't appear to have the pace or the power to keep Sullivan off him. Sullivan's a brute on the floor, but Yakovlev survived three rounds of Maia, so I think we actually get a bit of a nip-tuck affair where Sullivan's power and workrate in the clinch and perhaps a few takedowns shift the balance of the fight towards him. George Sullivan by split decision.
Zane Simon: I like Yakovlev, but I have serious doubts about his strength as a welterweight fighter. He's got great technique, but bigger guys have just been able to bully him. George Sullivan is big and powerful, even by welterweight standards. Yakovlev may be the better technician, but I think Sullivan will land the bigger, harder shots and maybe even find the horsepower for a few power takedowns and some big ground and pound. George Sullivan by decision.
Staff picking Sullivan: Nick, Rainer, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Tim, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Yakovlev:
Alex Caceres vs. Masio Fullen
Mookie Alexander: Man, they really dug deep to give Caceres a favorable fight. Alex Caceres by submission, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: If you're a relatively well-known young fighter on a slump, you should consider moving weight classes, because Zuffa will traditionally ease you in. Poirier-Ferreira and Koch-Oliveira were clearly relatively soft bookings, and in this case, Fullen isn't powerful enough to capitalize on Caceres' slow starting, and other that is less diverse, lower paced, and not as good in the scrambles. Alex Caceres by submission, round 3.
Zane Simon: On Caceres' worst day, he's about as good as Masio Fullen. Of course, Caceres has had a few worst days lately, but that would just make this fight a coinflip. So, assuming Caceres shows up in decent form, Alex Caceres via submission, round 2.
Staff picking Caceres: Nick, Rainer, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Tim, Fraser, Zane
Staff picking Fullen:
Damon Jackson vs. Levan Makashvili
Mookie Alexander: Just a reminder to the UFC, Levan Makashvili isn't from the American state of Georgia. (H/T Karim Zidan) Oh yeah, Jackson's going to lose this. Levan Makashvili by submission, round 1.
Phil Mackenzie: Makashvili had a rough, rough matchup last time out on short notice with the steadily peaking Hacran Dias. This is much more agreeable in that he's fighting a less athletic, less well-rounded version of himself and he's finally had a full camp. The one caveat is that he might be so used to being the more offensive wrestler that he struggles against a fighter as purely single-minded as Jackson... but I don't think so. Levan Makashvili by submission, round 3.
Zane Simon: Makashvili is more powerful, a better wrestler, a better striker, and I'm not convinced he's the worse grappler either, considering Jackson has been submitted in both his UFC bouts. I don't think Makashvili will find his way to a finish, but I expect a solidly dominant decision win. Levan Makashvili via decision.
Staff picking Jackson:
Staff picking Makashvili: Nick, Rainer, Phil, Stephie, Mookie, Tim, Fraser, Zane
Tony Martin vs. Felipe Olivieri
Phil Mackenzie: I had some hopes for Tony Martin, but I'm just not convinced any more. Apart from anything else: GO. TO. WELTERWEIGHT. He is oversized for the division and thus far has been completely been unable to maintain his own pace. Also no longer primarily at ATT and with Sityodtong, who are a decent camp but not on the same level. Oliveiri doesn't have much footage, but what there is shows an aggressive puncher who appears to be cleaning up his technique. I think he survives a competitive first round and hurts Martin in the second when the American inevitably gasses out. Felipe Olivieri by TKO, round 2.
Zane Simon: Kinda like the Johnson/Bader fight but in reverse. either the big power grappler gets a submission early or he gasses out and gets lit up by the striker. Olivieri is a decent enough grappler out of Nova Uniao (especially off his back) that I don't see him getting submitted by Martin's power top game (even though it's really good). And if he survives, he's the much slicker, harder striker. Felipe Olivieri via TKO, Round 2.
Staff picking Martin: Nick, Rainer, Stephie, Tim, Fraser
Staff picking Olivieri: Phil, Mookie, Zane
Randy Brown vs. Matt Dwyer
Phil: There's near-enough nothing to go on to pick in this fight, so you're basically forced to choose between the UFC's talent selection process (which would ideally be setting Brown up with a win) or the fact that he's facing a far more experienced version of himself a la Gomez-Font. I like what I've seen from Dwyer lately, think he's developing into a better range striker, so Matt Dwyer by unanimous decision.
Fraser: I am picking Brown for much the same reason I picked Sage the last few fights - the UFC really, really wants him to win, and given my limited knowledge of both men, I am assuming they booked this fight to serve that purpose. Randy Brown, KO, round 1
Zane Simon: I've actually seen enough footage on Brown at this point to say that, his takedown defense isn't miserable (it's not amazing), but his bigger problem is jumping on dynamic submission opportunities that he doesn't yet know how to finish. At range he's a solid striker and a very fluid, dynamic athlete, but he's not yet an amazing technician. I really feel like I should pick Dwyer here. His losses to Jouban and Tumenov don't mean a lot in regards to his ability to compete with the bottom end of the welterweight division, and at this point, Brown is definitely at the bottom end (just due to a lack of experience and technique). But, I have a feeling Brown is going to take this one and look good enough doing it to build some unreasonable hype that some nameless grinder is going to derail. Randy Brown via KO, Round 1.
Staff picking Brown: Nick, Tim, Fraser, Zane, Stephie
Staff picking Dwyer: Rainer, Phil, Mookie