UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. LaFlare takes us to Rio de Janeiro, Brazil where we have been taught to expect the unexpected. With only two top ten contenders on the card, the matchmakers have manifested a multitude of tightly contested tilts that should raise the risk tolerance red flag for any combat sports gambler. Continuing my crusade against all odds makers, I provide my arsenal of weapons in the form of my Best Bet Parlay, Power Parlay, Underdog Suggestions, and the ever-entertaining Prop Suggestions. To help better keep track of my record, I am pleased to introduce the two newest combat sports gamblers on the block, Wate Nilcox and Sane Zimon! These average schmos will be taking my advice in different ways as we brigade into battle against the ball-busting bookies. Let's boogie!
Main Parlay (BEST BET 1-0-0)- URP- 50%
My Main Parlay will be sporting my Best Bet badge as it is comprised of two Brazilian badasses, Gilbert Burns (-500) and Amanda Nunes (-400). Potentially protecting our investment with our Main Parlay Hedge will be women's MMA pioneer, Shayna Baszler (+300). Linking Burns and Nunes together will see an acceptable Unit Return Percentage (URP) of 50%. The cost to hedge will be 33% of a unit to cover a whole unit. Let us examine the contenders.
Gilbert Burns (-500):
Jiu-Jitsu ace Gilbert Burns (-500) will be taking on UFC debutant Alex Oliveira (+350) in the lightweight division. I expect Burns to live up to his lofty moneyline by displaying why he was a four-time BJJ World Champion. Unfortunately for Oliveira, his first step up in competition will also be his first trip inside of the Octagon. I see Gilbert Burns securing the finish.
Amanda Nunes (-400):
Amanda "Lioness" Nunes (-400) plans to bounce back after her first UFC loss as she takes on the savy veteran, Shayna Baszler (+300). Watch for Nunes to use her striking to setup the takedown and unleash some of her world renowned ground and pound.
Our Main Parlay Hedge fighter, Shayna Baszler (+300), has lost three of her last four bouts. This could light a fire of urgency inside of Baszler who has the the wrestling chops to make it a challenge for her opponent to get her to the ground. When you have a catch wrestler with nothing to lose it might be wise to hedge.
Power Parlay (High Risk 0-1-0)- URP- 80%
My high risk Power Parlay aims to raise our URP from the 50% seen in the Main Parlay to a more attractive 80%. This is done by adding welterweight warrior Erick Silva (-450) to my Main Parlay. To minimize risk, a Power Parlay Hedge is recommended in the form of former title contender Josh Koscheck (+325).
Gilbert Burns (-500)
Amanda Nunes (-400)
Eric Silva (-450)
Coming off of an impressive first round victory, Erick Silva (-450) looks to dispatch Josh Koscheck (+325) who recently fought at UFC 184 on Feb 28, 2015. Expect Silva to use his footwork to stay out of trouble and his striking to get the job done.
Josh Koscheck (+325) has dropped four straight fights as he enters his 25th UFC bout. When you have a former four-time All American wrestler with nothing to lose it might be wise to hedge!
Underdog Suggestions (1-0-0):
Demian Maia (+130) URP- 130%
Grappling specialist Demian Maia (+130) is my first dog suggestion as he takes on the undefeated American, Ryan LaFlare (-160). I see LaFlare closing the distance for Maia which will play into the Brazilian's strength. If Maia can avoid running out of gas then I can see him stealing the win.
Tony Martin (+100) URP- 100%
Tony Martin (+100) is my second underdog suggestion as he takes on the TUF 2 Brazil winner, Leonardo Santos (-125). According to Oddsshark.com, Martin filp-flops between favorite and underdog. I see Tony Martin using his aggression and athleticism to best Leonardo Santos.
Prop Suggestions (0-0-0)
Watch for Gilbert Burns vs. Alex Oliveira to finish under 1.5 rounds (+110). URP- 110%
I believe that Amanda Nunes vs. Shayna Baszler will last over 1.5 rounds (-130). URP- 76%
Wate Nilcox:
The conservative Mr. Nilcox will be placing a wager of 15 units on my Best Bet Main Parlay to see a return of 7.5 units. Nilcox has also decided to play it safe and will place a hedge of 5 units on Shayna Baszler after Gilbert Burns secures the victory which would net a return of 2.5 units or Nilcox will break even. Wate Nilcox will also place a .5 unit wager on my Underdog Suggestion, Tony Martin (+100) in order to win .5 of a unit.
Sane Zimon:
The more liberal Mr. Zimon will be placing 10 units on my Best Bet Main Parlay to see a return of 5 units. Zimon will forgo a hedge wager. Sane Zimon has also decided to place a 5 unit wager on my Power Parlay to see a return of 4.16 units. Zimon also places a hedge wager of 1.53 units on Josh Koscheck after both Gilbert Burns and Amanda Nunes win their respective matches. Zimon stands to net 2.63 units from my Power Parlay. Sane Zimon will also place a single unit wager on the Nunes vs. Baszler match lasting over 1.5 rounds to see a URP of 76%.
Now that we are armed with my Best Bet Suggestions let us do battle against the bookies! Stay tuned to BloodyElbow.com for my UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. LaFlare Betting Recap where we review my winners and losers and follow up with our new friends Wate Nilcox and Sane Zimon. Happy hunting!
*Odds source: Oddsshark.com
*Note: For entertainment purposes only
*Do you or someone you know have a gambling addiction? Get help by contacting The National Council on Problem Gambling at 1-800-522-4700.