Joanna Jedrzejczyk challenges the champion Carla Esparza in a strawweight title bout for the co-main event of UFC 185 on March 14, 2015, at the American Airlines Center in Dallas, Texas.
One-sentence summary?
Grimy, vicious kickboxer takes on the TUF and Women's Strawweight Champion in a bid to become the first Polish champ.
OR
European woman with a name everyone hates to spell takes on an American woman who wishes she could fight with a blonde wig to get sponsors.
Stats?
Women's strawweight (115 lbs)
Carla "Cookie Monster" Esparza
10-2
Odds: -165
Joanna Jedrzejczyk
8-0
Odds: +145
History lesson / introduction to the fighters
Phil: TUF 20 generated a few fan-favourites. Carla Esparza was... probably not among them. The odds-on favourite to take the season, she went about her business in the cage, but made herself one of the mean girls outside it. Her win over Rose Namajunas (where we did fairly well in avoiding the hype and picking correctly, I thought ) must have been predictably upsetting to the UFC, because they've put absolutely minimal amounts of promotional muscle behind her. Do you think Thug Rose would have gotten that Reebok sponsorship if she had won the title?
David: Absolutely. As I very carefully, and scrupulously alluded to with the Omar gif I posted in the comments section, it really is all in the game (yo). Marketing yourself is not just about looks, but about attitude. The UFC, still stuck in a world of Mountain Dew and bleached hair, loves it when their stars are mean mugging for the camera or being profane. Carla isn't any of that. She's not irreverent outside the cage, nor provocative inside it. And she doesn't have a L'Oreal face. That's the long and short of it. In her defense, the universe tends to unfold as it should; if women like Paige VanZant turn out to be duds, and Carla keeps winning, it's not like the losers get to keep their sponsors against a Burger King parking lot backdrop.
Phil: Joanna Jedrzejczyk was a Polish Muai Thai champion, compiling a strong 14-3 (?) record and a sizable win streak before being knocked out of a tournament in Thailand and subsequently making the switch to MMA in 2012. She's compiled a flawless mixed martial arts record, including her upset win over the highly touted Claudia Gadelha in her last fight.
David: I'm pretty stoke about seeing what Joanna can do in this fight. People love rooting for the violent striker, and even though she only owns two knockouts on her pro record, she hits hard enough to have a puncher's chance in virtually any bout.
What are the stakes?
Phil: The belt, and just the belt. By which I mean, whoever wins, I still don't think the UFC will get behind them much. In part, this is due to who the two fighters are in terms of their personality: outside of the house, Esparza has unsurprisingly shed most of the manufactured bitchiness, as people are wont to when there isn't a camera crew following them around and prodding them, and Jedrzejczyk is a taciturn, diligent hard-ass. Neither makes for barnburner promotional material. However, all this should be made up for by the fight itself, which has the potential to be absolutely fantastic.
David: Not only that, but the belt feels like a trinket for someone later on down the line. Carla and Joanna have styles that reflect a division without an identity; striker vs. grappler. I know I make this bout sound horrible, even though it's quite awesome, but I think that's the perception. Whether it's the reality, only time will tell.
Where do they want it?
Phil: The obvious answer is that this is a classic wrestler vs striker matchup, but the great thing about 115 is that although it's still "behind" the equivalent men's divisions, it has received and continues to receive young, talented athletes. Given the opportunity for full-time cutting-edge training, they visibly make the kind of improvements which it took the men's game years to painstakingly evolve. It's a hell of a lot of fun to watch.
Esparza has rapidly changed from being a fairly straightforward wrestler into a very clever phase-shifter. Although she sometimes gets nervous and shoots from the outside, I think her main ability is one which she displayed throughout her time in the TUF house- she just has an excellent sense of "what to do". I wouldn't describe it as necessarily timing, or killer instinct, but more just a really good sense of what is appropriate: she knows when to strike and wrestle, both for mixing up and off-balancing opponents, and for leaning on one or the other when it's time to exploit a weakness.
David: Not only that but Carla is an expert at being persistent without worrying about desperation. I flat out hated the way Esparza fought Tecia Torres on the show, not because I was rooting for Torres, but because I thought it betrayed her strengths. To casual fans, she looked like an amateur desperate to avoid a real fight when in fact she's quite capable.
Esparza reminds me a lot of Chad Mendes when he started out. Everyone expected Mendes to be this mutated version of Faber, but instead he took a lot of flack for being too conservative. Mendes couldn't yet figure out when to mix the striking with the wrestling, and Esparza has dealt with a little of that Mendes-itis in the early going, but she understands the game well despite her reputation on the show.
Phil: Jedrzejczyk is a really solid kickboxer. She's a much sharper, meaner puncher than pretty much anyone else currently in the division (although I personally think Alexa Grasso may edge her slightly if and when she joins the UFC), and puts together crisp body-head combinations. She pushes an absolutely murderous pace, which has occasionally been an issue for Esparza. Connor has put together an excellent precis of her style here.
Of course, Jedrzejczyk has a clear advantage on the feet, but the main question has to be whether she can keep it there. Her sprawl takedown defense is genuinely impressive given her brief time in the sport. She drops her hips down, pivots, and pushes away. To complement, she has an array of body punches and a cleaving uppercut with which she dropped Gadelha. These can be utilized to discourage takedowns. Is it enough, though?
David: This is where my ignorance reveals itself, but I never understood why strikers weren't better at moving laterally since this always seems like the best route against takedowns; drop your hips, pivot, push away, and reset. Aldo is a master of this form of defense, and Joanna seems to have learned a thing or two. I'm really impressed you keep using her last name, by the way. Even copy and paste has a hard time spelling her name.
Back to her striking, what impresses me most about Joanna is her ability to switch form and function. A lot of MMA fighters get caught in a dichotomy of punching straight, or punching wide. Joanna does both depending on her opponent's guard. She always puts herself in a position to land with authority.
Insight from past fights?
Phil: Gadelha vs Jedrzejczyk is the obvious one here. Much was made of the fact that the Pole was able to stuff the majority of Gadelha's takedowns, but Gadelha is not really a particularly great takedown artist, relying largely on her monstrous physical strength to muscle her opponents down. What really impressed me was that Jedrzejczyk was able to stand up every time she was taken down. Gadelha's top game is pretty crushing, so while I do expect Jedrzejczyk to go down a few times, I also think that Esparza is going to have to work very hard to keep putting her there.
David: The key difference there is that Esparza will chain her attempts into more attempts. She's anything but a one and done shooter, which is what makes me think she'll retain her title. Joanna will have to do more than just pivot, and push; she'll have to pivot, push, shimmy, shake and bake, and do the twist. Carla's fight with Jessica Aguilar is another interesting bout to watch, as you get to see how Carla responds to extended exchanges on the feet. Esparza has improved since then, but Carla is better defending than one might expect, and she's since improved.
X-Factors?
Phil: I expect Esparza to use circular movement and try and drive in past Jedrzejczyk's strikes at an angle. I think the X-factor for me is whether Jedrzejczyk uses her kicks or not- they'll make her more vulnerable to well-timed takedowns, but judicious kicks are also MMA's best cage-cutting tools, and they'll force Esparza to come at the challenger on more of a linear approach. Jedrzejczyk has been largely a boxer thus far in her MMA tenure, so it's interesting to see if that element of her game returns.
David: I'm curious to see how the judges will view this fight. I have a sneaking suspicion that judges hate the "run on your knees grabbing at ankles for a takedown" move. If Carla has to get takedowns after said cockroach scrambles and is getting served on the feet, Joanna wouldn't have to land much for judges to favor her. Of course, this doesn't address the real question; will Carla be wearing a blonde wig?
Prognostication:
Phil: I think this fight is going to be very closely contested. There are several things which could change the tone of it dramatically. Perhaps the biggest element might be cardio- I expect a frenetic, high pace, and whoever starts to flag first will get picked off. Should be a great one! Carla Esparza by unanimous decision
David: Agreed. Carla Esparza by Split Decision.