This Saturday night might just be the biggest UFC event of the year. With two title fights in the main and co-main events, one of which features Irish mega-star, Conor McGregor, as well as a solid supporting card, you have a recipe for Ironman numbers. With 2015 being such a big year for the promotion, this is a great way to round out their final pay-per-view card of 2015.
As with all the numbered PPV cards, Crazy Aaron from Kountermove has once again gifted Bloody Elbow readers with a free cash game. I have done a mini breakdown of the main card that will aid you in making your winning fight team, since I do have the best picks/predictions record on the site for two years running. Kountermove pricing is included in the predictions and the link to the free game will be posted at the end.
We hope you enjoy your fight day with all of us at the best fantasy MMA site around (and we were the first ones too!), Kountermove.com
KM Pricing: Aldo $5000 / McGregor $5400
This fight seems to be a difficult choice for many, but I'm pretty dang certain that McGregor will end up the undisputed king of the featherweights by the end of the night. The two are only separated by two years in age, but Aldo has faced multiple injuries over the last several years and spent quite a bit of time out of action.
By contrast, McGregor, who has also faced a litany of his own injuries, has somehow managed to fight through his, and been triumphant in those efforts. He's remained active, and Saturday night will mark his seventh return to the Octagon in 2.5 years (3rd one this year), whereas Aldo will only chalk up a fourth appearance in the same time-frame. In a sport where iron sharpens iron, Jose Aldo's weapons are likely too rusty to defend against the unorthodox striking game that McGregor presents.
Now, I'm not saying Aldo doesn't have a chance here, because he absolutely does. Aldo hasn't been beaten in more than 10 years. That's one hell of a confidence perk. He's very skilled on the ground, and those kicks can absolutely wreck a lead leg. If Aldo is at 100%, he can absolutely win this fight. However, even at 100%, I still don't think he'll be able to get McGregor's timing down enough to make those devastating kicks work to his advantage, nor do I feel he'll be able to take advantage of Conor on the ground.
My pick: McGregor via R3 TKO
Chris Weidman vs. Luke Rockhold
Kountermove pricing: Weidman $5400 / Rockhold $5000
If Weidman were fighting anyone else in the division, I'd choose him to win. However, he's fighting Luke Rockhold, an athlete whose ground game is exceptional, and whose striking is also very impressive. Luke is a pretty big middleweight, so it stands to reason he'll have the size advantage. He's also working with George Lockhart, which means his cut will likely be a very smooth one, as well as giving him what I think will be the power advantage in this match-up.
Weidman is also an excellent striker and he trains under the Dynamic Duo, Matt Serra and Ray Longo. That's a pretty tough act to beat, and this could really be a pick 'em fight. The thing that really puts me over the edge to choose Rockhold is his ultra slick ground game and power advantage.
My pick: Rockhold via SD
Kountermove pricing: Souza $5000 / Romero $4600
This fight is another one where I had no problem choosing a winner. Jacare is a terrifying beast. He's a killer. A dream crusher. A soul reaper. I cannot even attribute enough scary words to adequately describe him, so I will just close my eyes and type a bunch of garble. *Eyes closed* kdsahfyfhnuhrg kjhef uwhflwh!!
Does Romero have a chance? Of course he does. He's a great, powerful wrestler with devastating KO power. Thing is, Jacare isn't going to stand and bang with Romero. He's going to get this to the ground as fast as possible.
The two share a few opponents in common, but Tim Kennedy is the most important one. Jacare was never in any danger during his outing with Tim, but Romero came very close to being finished in his. If "Stoolgate" hadn't happened, we might have seen Yoel with an extra loss on his record.
The final thing that we must consider here is experience. Jacare has 26 fights under his belt. Yoel has 11. With a similar strength of schedule during their respective UFC tenures, I think the craftier of the two will be the veteran, Souza.
My pick: Jacare via R2 death lock
*Edit: This edit is taking place at 7:07 pm CST on Wednesday, Dec. 9, 2015. I watched a bunch of tape and have changed my mind. Romero via TKO, R2*
Kountermove pricing: Maia $4900 / Nelson $4700
This was such a hard fight to pick a winner, and I will likely change my mind 42 more times between now and Saturday. On the one hand, we have one of my favorite fighters in the man-shark, Gunni Nelson. On the other hand, we have the ever slick ground wizard that likes to rip apart prospects and eat them with some feijoada and a nice Caipirinha.
Nelson is also slick on the ground, and his striking is evolving at a pretty good clip, but after seeing the way Maia effectively demolished Neil Magny, I just can't put my money on the earth version of Thor and feel like I made the right choice. I hope to hell that I'm wrong, because I really wanna see Nelson win here, but if I had a nickel and had to put it somewhere, it'd be on Maia.
My pick: Demian Maia via SD
Max Holloway vs. Jeremy Stephens
Kountermove pricing: Holloway $5500 / Stephens $4100 (Stephens is a steal!)
This fight, according to the odds makers, is going to be a blowout in Max Holloway's favor. While I agree with the ultimate outcome, I just don't see this as some one-sided beating. Holloway is looking increasingly more impressive with every fight, and since his loss to McG, he's really looked like he's made the necessary adjustments to challenge for the title in a fight or two.
The Number 8 ranked Stephens is no joke, and the power he packs in those meat hammers is real. He's also a bit of a comeback specialist and has an exceptionally durable chin. Remember, he holds a spectacular knockout victory over current lightweight champ, Rafael dos Anjos, after being on the losing end for most of that fight. As a matter of fact, of his 11 losses, only 4 have been finishes, and of those finishes, only 1 has been via KO.
When it's all said and done, I think Holloway's well-rounded skillset and ability to capitalize on his opponent's weaknesses will be the deciding factor here, so my nickel is going on the young Hawaiian.
My pick: Holloway via R2 submission
Now that I've given you my picks and predictions, it's time to get to the good stuff, Crazy Aaron's free tourney for Bloody Elbow readers. Before I link you guys, I wanted to give you some standard information about Kountermove.
Players use a $25,000 artificial salary cap to draft 5 fighters from the card before each event begins. Eachfighter has a salary designated by Kountermove -- salaries range from $3,000 to $8,000. The winners are determined based on how the fight plays out rather than simply a fight's outcome (pick'em format). Kountermove calculates a fighter's fantasy score based on the number of strikes, takedowns, submissions, dominant positions, and rounds won. Scoring data from the fights flows into the site in near real-time, so players can monitor their teams as the event happens. The data used in calculating a fighter's score is provided by UFC's official stats provider, FightMetric.
The site was started with the idea that MMA in general must market "up and coming" fighters to become a truly mainstream sport. "There are many great fighters out there that no one knows about because so much of marketing in MMA is geared toward the top fighters" said Aaron Ard, a co-founder of Kountermove.com, "we wanted to create a game that would create interest and engagement in preliminary fights as well as the headliners." Statistics are bearing this out; over 85% of Kountermove players' teams have at least one fighter competing on the preliminary card. No Kountermove player has won a major tournament without a preliminary card fighter on their team.
Here's the link to the $100 tourney:
You can follow Kountermove via their Twitter account, @Kountermove
Disclaimer: Kountermove is not an advertiser on Bloody Elbow, nor are we being paid to advertise the contest. They offered to provide Bloody Elbow readers with the free tournament and are fully responsible for the contest and any associated prize payouts.