Clay Guida vs. Dennis Bermudez Featherweight
What ever happened to that guy who used to get us to pay attention to lighter weight fighters, and had awesome bouts against Roger Huerta and Tyson Griffin?
It's interesting to note how quickly Clay Guida became a pariah. It was essentially a two stop process: beat Takanori Gomi. Then beat Anthony Pettis. It's one thing to beat fan favorites: it's another to beat them in a manner that isn't descriptive of their normal qualities.
Sure, Guida finished Gomi, but how many people are willing to subject themselves to watching the first round? Guida's done a few other things to help establish the new narrative of himself as a symbol of "lay and pray", but to them I say: you were never paying attention to begin with. Guida only got into high octane fights when he couldn't effectively out wrestle his opponent, at which point, he'd take his chances on the feet. But if and only if. His default setting has always been TUF 13 Finale rather than UFC 72.
To be sure, some things have changed. He doesn't throw as many punches and his wrestling has simultaneously improved, but still. We've always known what we were gonna get with Guida.
Yea but Dennis Bermudez is pretty good. I don't think Guida can take care of these whipper snappers at his age.
If there's a better incarnation of Rocky the fighter (as opposed to Rocky the character), I really feel like Dennis is it. His TUF bouts mostly followed a simple formula: get rocked, and nearly finished, and then bounce back and win the fight. Nothing changed against Diego Brandao. Since then he's gone 6-0 in the UFC. There are few better winning streaks in the division, and one not even some UFC champions have managed.
But Guida is the underdog at +140.
Which would normally be nuts, but I get the logic.
Whatever the former Kawajiri fanboy in me thinks, I think Guida's win over him was a solid win. Kawajiri is 35, and hadn't been fighting top competition since 2010 and 2011 when he beat Josh Thomson in impressive fashion while losing impressively to Gilbert Melendez soon afterward.
It's tempting to compare the two: Bermudez and Kawajiri. They're both stocky, and can strike and wrestle. But Kawajiri was always more of a top control grappler: his takedowns were used to pass guard and work from there. If it turned into a slugfest, so be it. But if there's one thing that seemed to deteriorate, it's Kawajiri's takedown defense. He used to have one of the best sprawls in the business. I bring up Kawajiri because I find it tricky to unpack Guida's projection as an elite FW.
After all, on the feet, it;s hard to say. Bermudez is a solid striker in a firefight. He hits hard, and can throw in volume. Guida has improved by way of addition by subtraction. His striking used to look similar to Bermudez in heated exchanges, but now Guida uses movement to score strikes when his opponent is flat footed. And yes, by head movement I mean mosh pitting. Lately he hasn't used it the way it began against Gomi, but it's proven to be effective in small doses.
Bermudez is probably slightly better than his last fight indicates. You're noticing some small improvements in his game, and he's cleared up many of the holes in his striking defense. Granted, it's still there, but I suspect Bermudez will surprise some fans early.
I just question how effective he'll be in the third round. I'm not exactly thrilled with the way Guida has begun to fight, but you've got to give credit where credit is due: he's molded himself into a better fighter using all the same tools. He just has a better mind for the game. His shot is still the same: he just times his takedowns better. His punching is still stiff: he just more economic. These small subtle changes have become vital in making him a more threatening gatekeeper.
I keep going back and forth on this one. Bermudez has some very sturdy takedown defense. His style is very reminiscent of how Guida used to lose: brawl with the better striker when the wrestling isn't getting it done. But Bermudez' game can be exploited, and so I see Guida's durability winning out.
Philosophically, Guida is like Sagat from Street Fighter II. Sure he's just the gatekeeper to Bison, but sometimes it's less frustrating to deal with the boss than him.
Clay Guida by Decision.