The Line Up
Light Heavyweight Marcos Rogério de Lima vs. Igor Pokrajac
Featherweight Tom Niinimäki vs. Renato Carneiro
Featherweight Darren Elkins vs. Hacran Dias
Bantamweight Leandro Issa vs. Yuta Sasaki
Welterweight Márcio Alexandre vs. Tim Means
Middleweight Vitor Miranda vs. Jake Collier
The Odds
Lima -355 / Pokrajac +245
Niinimaki -130 / Carneiro +110
Elkins +150 / Dias -190
Issa +300 / Sasaki -420
Alexandre +180 / Means -260
Miranda +115 / Collier -155
3 Things You Should Know
1. We rarely get interesting live prospects on these undercards, so no matter how bad the card surrounding them is, it's nice to have two in Sasaki and Carneiro.
Sasaki showed against Roland Delorme why we need to rid ourselves of the notion that Asian fighters can't hack it in the UFC. They represent a fairly small portion of the UFC, and yet off the top of my head I've got Doo Ho Choi, Stun Gun, Horiguchi, KZ, Mizugaki, Hioki (performed below expectations, but still a mainstay in the division), Ho Kang, Gyu Lim, Seo Hee Ham, and you could even include Rin Nakai if you were so inclined (I'm not, but only with respect to her future in her current division).
The main thing with Sasaki is that he's actually getting time with people like Alpha Male. This is a massive upgrade from the overcrowded shoebox gyms in Japan, for example. With an ADCC Asian trials win, and a ton of experience, expect him to make short work of Issa, who simply won't be able to counter Sasaki's large frame pressuring him all night. The real question is what Sasaki's ceiling is. Is what we thought Hioki could be? Hioki had size too for his division, like Sasaki, but Hioki's problem was always a mental one: it wasn't for a lack of trying, but he has a history of not always fighting to his strengths. Sasaki takes a much more streamlined approach to MMA, so expect the 25 year to benefit.
The other one is Carneiro: a 26 year old whose got experience training with Rani Yahya, and is 8-0-1 with 4 wins by submission. His striking is pretty standard, but that is not to say he isn't fluid. He strings offense together comfortably, letting loose with his left leg from his traditional stance where ever he can, and unloading reasonably heavy punches with his right hand. Still, his game is top control, and his opponent is a fighter who made his UFC debut against Carneiro's stablemate in Yahya. It was a massive upgrade in competition, and Niinimaki excelled, only to lose twice by submission to less talented grapplers.
This will be a hard fight to unpack because despite Niinimaki's crash landing, he's still a solid fighter. However, Carnerio has been in with solid competition despite his youth, so I expect him to pressure Tom with his kicks, stalking him for a decision win.
2. A couple of UFC veterans find themselves in drastically different spots. Pokrajac could potentially get his pink slip even in victory (I know I know: not really, but still) while Elkins gonna Elkins.
Darren Elkins is like a Zuffa mosquito trapped in amber, offering observers a glimpse of time immemorial. I have a hard time believing he'll ever be cut. He's the definition of a stalwart, and I don't expect to go anywhere. Unlike Fitch, who he nicely compares to, Elkins makes an effort to really finish, and I say this as someone who had always respected Fitch's game.
His opponent, Hacran Dias isn't exactly a gimmie, but he's not a fighter you should expect to have the Elkins shelf life. His method of choice when it comes to violence is submissions, and nothing about his history tells me he can beat Elkins at his own game. On top of that, Elkins has developed some rote, but effective striking over his career. He didn't even look all that outclassed against Jeremy Stephens.
As for poor Igor, he had a nice run in 2011. But he hasn't officially won since 2012. His body is worn, and he was never a premier athlete to begin with. On top of that he's fighting the wild brawler from TUF in Marcos Pezao. If you're feeling frisky, I can see where you might think this could be good, odds wise. After all, Igor is a veteran, and Pezao is still wild in the classic sense: this is a guy that couldn't make it past the semifinals of TUF Brazil 3. His game is still pretty unrefined. Nonetheless, he doesn't need to land many to land the right one.
3. The rest of the underdog bets are not bad, but you'll only remember the fights if they make you money.
Marcio Alexandre is not a bad fighter. He's crafty from his southpaw stance and flexes a solid game overall although his specialty is in the face punching game. However, he draws a tough one against the massive Tim 'Dirty Bird" Means. This fight should be competitive early on. Means' clinch work will prove to be a factor, which is why I'm sticking with this specific pick. Though not with a terrible amount of confidence.
Even though Collier is the favorite, Miranda has the more polished game, especially on the feet. Collier can get it on the ground where he's more comfortable but I still think Collier's game will catch up to him against fighters who specialize in certain areas, which only marginally describes Miranda.
Predictions
Lima by TKO, round 2.
Carneiro by RNC, round 3.
Elkins by Decision.
Sasaki by RNC, round 2.
Means by Decision.
Miranda by Decision.