The UFC on Fuel 5 betting odds are out, and I'm not all that impressed. Part of it is just a lot of newer and/or unpredictable fighters, and part of it is that the lines for most bouts are surprisingly well set. Stipe Miocic deserves to be around where he's at, you'd have to consider Dan Hardy to be a small favorite, Pickett's about right, etc. But there has to be something here, so I'll point out my small leans.
Paul Sass at even money against Wiman sounds great at first glance. Wiman likes to grind away on top and that's right in Sass' wheelhouse for a triangle. Can he pull it off on a guy with excellent submission defense? Considering he was able to against Jacob Volkmann, I wouldn't be surprised. So it is worth a small bet to me.
On the undercard, I think the best bet is Robert Peralta at -130. Jason Young is solid, but I think Peralta has the better all-round game and can definitely hang on the feet. Brad Tavares might be a good pick over Tom Watson as well, especially if he takes the fight to the floor. So here's a look at my picks for the event, and a look at how I did last week. You can check out the lines for the full card below.
Recommended plays:
.5 unit on Paul Sass at -115
1.5 units on Robert Peralta at -130
.5 unit on Brad Tavares at -165
UFC 152 picks: 3-1, +1.83 units
Lines via bookmaker.eu
Main Card:
Stipe Miocic (9-0) -235 vs. Stefan Struve (24-5) +185
Dan Hardy (24-10, 1 NC) -165 vs. Amir Sadollah (6-3) +135
Yves Jabouin (18-7) +165 vs. Brad Pickett (21-6) -215
Paul Sass (13-0) -115 vs. Matt Wiman (14-6) -115
John Hathaway (16-1) -275 vs. John Maguire (18-3) +205
Duane Ludwig (21-13) +155 vs. Che Mills (14-5, 1 NC) -205
Preliminary Card:
Kyle Kingsbury (11-4, 1 NC) +130 vs. Jimi Manuwa (11-0) -160
Akira Corassani (9-3, 1 NC) +155 vs. Andy Ogle (8-1) -205
Brad Tavares (8-1) -165 vs. Tom Watson (15-4) +135
Robert Peralta (15-3, 1 NC) -130 vs. Jason Young (9-5) EVEN
DaMarques Johnson (16-11) +175 vs. Gunnar Nelson (9-0-1) -235