Events like Wednesday's UFC on Fuel card are either very good for betting, or very bad for it depending on your perspective. If you have the time to do a lot of research and know some of the undercard fighters better than the linemakers, the potential is there to make a killing. On the other hand, betting on the unknown is not wise if you're not completely up to speed. I see two solid bets outside of the new guys though, so all is not lost.
The first is - the main event, and Diego Sanchez. No, I'm not crazy (despite what Nick Diaz fans might tell you). The Shields win earned Ellenberger plenty of justified hype, but I still have the Carlos Eduardo Rocha fight in the back of my head and Sanchez is a grinder. I expected the line to see Diego in the +175 to +200 range, not +250. I believe there is value in that bet, though I'll probably still be picking the Juggernaut in my predictions.
The other live dog I see is Vagner Rocha. While Brookins has good wrestling and is extremely tough to finish, Rocha has better submission skills and has only lost to much bigger men. At +175, he seems like a solid investment to me. Anyway, here are your lines for UFC on Fuel:
Lines via www.bodog.ca
Feb 15th, live on Fuel TV from Omaha, NE:
Main Card:
Diego Sanchez (26-5) +250 vs. Jake Ellenberger (23-4) -325
Dave Herman (21-2) -140 vs. Stefan Struve (22-5) +110
Ronny Markes (12-1) -115 vs. Aaron Simpson (11-2) -115
Philip de Fries (8-0, 1 NC) +350 vs. Stipe Miocic (7-0) -500
More SBN coverage of UFC on Fuel 1
Preliminary Card:
T.J. Dillashaw (4-1) -255 vs. Walel Watson (9-3) +195
Jonathan Brookins (12-4) -225 vs. Vagner Rocha (7-2) +175
John Albert (7-1) +210 vs. Ivan Menjivar (23-8) -270
Bernardo Magalhaes (11-1) -210 vs. Tim Means (16-3-1) +170
Sean Loeffler (25-5) -115 vs. Buddy Roberts (11-2) -115
Anton Kuivanen (16-4) +105 vs. Justin Salas (9-3) -135