Event: UFC 134: Rio
Date: Saturday, August 27, 2011 at 9 p.m. ET on PPV
Location: HSBC Arena in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Anderson Silva vs. Yushin Okami
Brent Brookhouse - I’m not the only one who thinks that Okami has looked steadily less impressive since jabbing Linhares’ face off, am I? He has looked less and less effective and done less and less in getting his wins. Also, the memory of Rich Franklin walking back to his corner and saying that Okami really wasn’t that strong is sticking with me. Silva is a better fighter than Okami and I don’t really see any reason he can’t finish him anywhere the fight ends up. Anderson Silva by TKO, round two.
Mike Fagan - This is the sort of fight where every reasonable person has Anderson Silva as a huge favorite and you have a bunch of people asking “Why don’t you give Okami a chance?” and then when Okami wins those latter people are all “SEE! MMA IS SO UNPREDICTABLE!” Anderson is a 5-1 favorite. That gives Okami about a 16% chance of winning. And that’s about right. So there is a chance, it’s small, and the reasons for that can be found by watching their first fight. Anderson Silva by TKO, round three.
Leland Roling - There isn’t anything in Okami’s most recent performances to suggest that he can “Sonnen” his way to victory on Saturday night. His stand-up has improved, but who really believes it will act as a means to winning this fight? Nobody. Okami isn’t a thoroughbred takedown machine either. He’ll have problems pressing Anderson to the ground, and Silva should feast on the openings that Okami gives him at close range. Anderson Silva via KO.
KJ Gould - Okami is being overlooked, as always. Silva is the safe bet but I think Okami has the tools to get the job done. The problem is I don’t see him finishing the fight and in that regard Silva has more tools in his belt. His submission defense is good enough to survive Silva on the ground, and he’s shown an ability to keep a fight grounded using fundamental wrestling technique to do so against other skilled BJJ players. Combine that with training solidly with Chael Sonnen and I think we could see the first UFC belt to go back to Japan. Okami by Decision.
Staff picking Silva: Tim, Fraser, Anton, Leland, Brookhouse, Fagan, Roth
Staff picking Okami: KJ
Mauricio Rua vs. Forrest Griffin
Brent Brookhouse - Round one probably decides the entire fight. If Rua catches Forrest early he can get the stoppage and the win. But if it gets to the second round I don’t see any way that Rua’s cardio is suddenly drastically improved over the previous times we’ve seen him in the Octagon. Add my distrust of Rua’s knee to my concerns about his cardio and you can see why I favor Forrest here. Griffin also is massive for 205 and if he can make Rua carry that weight for any length of time it’s only going to serve to exhaust Shogun. Forrest Griffin by decision.
Mike Fagan - As I’ve said elsewhere, I’m most interested in the storylines here. Is Rua’s knee holding up? Is he in shape? How much does Forrest still want to fight? How close are both these guys to the end of their career? I’m a little surprised that not only did the betting line open at 2-1 for Rua, but that the action has come in steady on him. Disregarding the injury concerns, Forrest is a huge light heavyweight, and we’ve already seen him outwork and outgrapple “Shogun” in the past. Eduardo Alonso and Mauricio are denying the injury reports, but these things always seem to be a case of smoke/fire. Forrest Griffin by decision.
Fraser Coffeen - This one comes almost entirely down to the intangibles, just like it did the last time they fought. For Shogun - is he healthy and in the proper condition? For Forrest - is he motivated and focused? Last time Shogun came in not 100% prepared, but based on interviews, I think this time it’s Forrest who is not fully in the game. Mauricio Rua by TKO
KJ Gould - You’ve got two of the most high profile hit’n’miss fighters in recent years in a rematch. Gah. Shogun had the rust well and truly beaten out of him against Jones and he usually comes back strong after a bad loss. Forrest has been out for a lot longer even if he is a workhorse in the gym. I’ll go Shogun this time around. Rua by TKO.
Staff picking Rua: Tim, Fraser, Leland, KJ.
Staff picking Griffin: Anton, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Brendan Schaub
Brent Brookhouse - I don’t buy that Nogueira is healthy and there is no doubting that Schaub has the more promising future. But I never pick against Nogueira, he is one of the biggest reasons for my being the MMA fan that I am today and as such I will always be an unabashed fanboy when discussing his fights. I’ve seen him pull off wins in more improbable situations than this and I don’t care that his legendary chin has faded, I refuse to accept that Schaub can knock him out. Nogueira, in Brazil, submits the youngster and we all celebrate. Nogueira by submission, round 2.
Mike Fagan - Nogueira subbing Schaub, in his first fight in Brazil and after an 18-month layoff, would be one of the greatest moments in MMA history. If we’re being honest, though, Nogueira hasn’t looked good since his UFC debut against Herring. (And for the final time, diving into a headkick doesn’t outweigh the other 14 minutes Nogueira dominated that fight.) Maybe Nogueira’s healthy, maybe the talk about “rushing back” is a ruse. Seemly unlikely to me. Brendan Schaub by TKO, round one.
Leland Roling - Nogueira has been resurrected from the dead. I don’t know the details, but I’m assuming an entire cemetery was exhumed to fix his broken body. What a total waste of time. It still won’t fix the fact that he hasn’t fought in over a year-and-a-half, and Schaub has polished his skills by beating on mediocre talent. I’ll still take the latter over an aging legend who doesn’t have much left in the tank. Brendan Schaub via TKO.
Anton Tabuena - The doctors said it couldn’t be done, but Big Nog still rushed his recovery just so he can fight in Rio. Even if his injuries that required multiple surgeries have healed 100%, which is pretty doubtful already, will he be the same fighter? Will he still have the same conditioning, timing, and movement? I really doubt it. Big Nog is the oldest 35-year-old in the world, and I think Schaub will make him look bad. Brendan Schaub by TKO.
Staff picking Nogueira: Tim, Brent
Staff picking Schaub: Fraser, Anton, Leland, Fagan, Roth
Ross Pearson vs. Edson Barboza
Brent Brookhouse - Pearson is a live dog here, but he lacks the explosive ability of Barboza. I don’t see Ross being able to win enough of the fight to take a decision and I don’t think he has the stopping power to win in a shootout. Edson Barboza by TKO, round three.
Mike Fagan - Pearson’s one of the few Brits that I think have staying power in the UFC. Barboza’s better enough in all areas though. Edson Barboza by decision.
Leland Roling - Pearson isn’t quite dynamic enough to keep up with Barboza on the feet. His tedious style will open up as Barboza’s diverse repertoire of attacks does damage, and that will cause Pearson to get wild as he attempts to catch up on the scorecards. Edson Barboza via TKO.
Fraser Coffeen - Pearson will make this a competitive fight, but Barboza’s striking is just on a different level. Expect to see his full arsenal here, hopefully in a showing that turns some heads. Edson Barboza via TKO
Staff picking Pearson: KJ
Staff picking Barboza: Tim, Fraser, Anton, Leland, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Luiz Cane vs. Stanislav Nedkov
Brent Brookhouse - I can absolutely see Nedkov working takedowns and grinding out a win here, but I just think Cane blasts him on the feet very early and ends it before he has the chance to get inside. I hope I’m right because a slow grinding top game win from Nedkov is going to upset the crowd. Luiz Cane by TKO, round one.
Mike Fagan - Stanislav Nedkov is right handed. Luiz Cane by TKO, round two.
Leland Roling - Nedkov has the striking game of a drunken bar patron on a Friday night, but his relentless wrestling ability is enough to stifle Cane. If Cane’s go-for-broke aggression on the feet doesn’t end Nedkov’s night instantly, Nedkov will pummel right through his takedown defense and grind his way to victory. Stanislav Nedkov via decision.
Fraser Coffeen - I’m torn here, because I like Nedkov’s ground game, but I have trouble getting past that year-plus lay off for him. But still, he should be able to drag Cane down and grind it out. Stanislav Nedkov by Decision
Staff picking Cane: Tim, Anton, KJ, Fagan, Brookhouse, Roth
Staff picking Nedkov: Leland, Fraser
UFC 134: Rio - Bloody Elbow Staff Predictions
via dissectmma.com