Dave Meltzer explains some of the strategic issues involved in the current round of Strikeforce and M-1 Global negotiations about Fedor's next fight:
The difference between CBS' success and failure has been the inclusion of a headliner with star power. With Gina Carano on an extended break, only Emelianenko has the same track record of success among Strikeforce's current roster. And right now, there doesn't appear to be anyone else who can take his place.
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For that reason alone, given UFC president Dana White's ruthlessness against opposing promoters, I don't believe White for a second when he said last week that he has no interest in the Russian. There wasn't much pressure from the public, outside of the vocal hardcore fan base who comprise a tiny percentage of people who actually spend money on the product, on White to sign Emelianenko. But there were relentless questions from the media about who was the world's best heavyweight, so White clearly put pressure on himself for the past three years to make the deal.
With Emelianenko's loss, however, his real value to UFC is simply that by getting him on its roster, it could derail Strikeforce's most valuable key to growth: the potential to do well on CBS.
The UFC has made multiple moves just to mess with Strikeforce -- everything from re-signing Tito Ortiz and booking the freakshow James Toney vs Randy Couture match, to rumored attempts to sign Cung Le. Stealing away Fedor would seriously cramp Strikeforce's chances to survive as a top-tier MMA promotion with network TV exposure.
This is why Coker is attempting to push an Overeem vs Fedor title fight despite Fedor coming off a loss to Werdum. He wants Fedor locked in with a champion's clause that will prevent him from winning his final Strikeforce fight and jumping ship to the UFC.
And if Overeem beats Fedor in a high profile title fight on CBS, then Coker has a very credible heavyweight champ that's been seen by millions of Americans.
More in the full entry.
But Meltzer points out that Fedor is only important to Strikeforce if they are lucky enough to get another CBS show:
If CBS doesn't participate, and it's still unclear whether or not it will, Emelianenko and M-1's leverage in this country will all but vanish. Strikeforce can put on quality, Showtime-caliber events and draw nearly the same audience without him. Emelianenko's value is no longer worth breaking the bank. Strikeforce can lose him, and in the big picture, it won't make a great deal of difference. But don't count out Emelianenko's UFC value after the loss, as plenty of name fighters have shown over and over that one loss doesn't kill interest in stars. But his side has certainly lost plenty of leverage.
Jake Rossen takes a dim view of a potential Overeem vs Fedor bout:
Strikeforce has a decision to make: Either the belts it promotes and assigns importance to are legitimate, or they aren't. For Overeem to spend two years out of the promotion and then fight Brett Rogers immediately after Rogers loses to Emelianenko is Moe Howard stuff. To deliver Overeem a second consecutive contender who lost his previous fight is entering Curly territory.
The match would also violate a key tenet of promoters who don't enjoy the smell of burning money: Make marketable matches as soon as humanly possible; don't put them off for any reason. Emelianenko-Werdum has the potential to be a viable CBS attraction, but its appeal goes out the door the second Emelianenko or Werdum loses to Overeem.
Personally, I'd just as soon Strikeforce dispense with their titles altogether. I get the heebie jeebies at the thought of young fighters with big upsides like Alistair Overeem, Muhammed "King Mo" Lawal, Gegard Mousasi, Hector Lombard, Ben Askren or Joe Warren being locked up in Strikeforce or Bellator and never getting a chance to face the best in the UFC.
In an ideal world, Strikeforce would be home to fighters who are on their way up to the UFC or have had their UFC runs. They are also a great home for freak show fighters like James Toney or Batista or Herschel Walker. I enjoy a good freak show as much as the next guy. What I don't want to see is business concerns retarding the development of fighters.
The UFC can't develop every prospect. They explicitly told King Mo and Ben Askren to go out and get seasoned elsewhere. But now that those guys are getting that seasoning, their very success may keep them out of the UFC.
I'm not worried about Fedor falling into that trap, but I do despair of ever seeing Overeem in the UFC.
Zach Arnold adds this scathing commentary:
Bottom line: If the reports are true that Strikeforce & Showtime are trying to keep Fedor under control via a champion's clause in a contract, then they have literally done the one thing that nobody thought was possible after Fedor lost and that is give him business leverage. Any time you negotiation from a position of weakness as opposed to a position of strength, you are asking to get run over. Somehow and someway, Strikeforce has set themselves up and flipped the script by allowing Fedor more business leverage because they afraid that he will more likely consider going to UFC because he lost a fight. You can't make this up.