The UFC 116 main event championship showdown between Brock Lesnar (4-1, 3-1 UFC) and Shane Carwin (12-0, 4-0 UFC) could perhaps be one of the most important heavyweight showdowns in the history of mixed martial arts. With Fedor Emelianenko's shocking loss to former UFC fighter Fabricio Werdum last weekend, many writers and analysts feel that the winner of this monumental showdown will be able to claim the title as the undisputed #1 heavyweight fighter in the world. Lesnar may have already solidified that claim, but Carwin stands in his path as a legitimate spoiler.
As Mike Goldberg would say, Carwin has had a meteoric rise to the top of the heavyweight division. He crushed his first eight opponents in regional competition, finishing all comers by either knockout or submission. In his debut with the UFC, Carwin bombed veteran Christian Wellisch in 0:44 seconds at UFC 84, and his sophomore appearance lasted a mere 0:47 seconds longer as he knocked out Britain's Neil Wain at the 1:31 mark of the first round.
A step up in competition pitted Carwin against dangerous Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 96, and while Gonzaga looked solid in the opening minute -- Carwin's power ended his night abruptly at the 1:09 mark of the first round. Carwin's toughest test in his career came at UFC 111 against Frank Mir, a fight that many felt Mir could win due to his phenomenal grappling skills, but Carwin's strength in the clinch and booming overhands dominated the fight. Carwin crumpled Mir at the 3:48 mark of the first round to win the UFC Interim Heavyweight title.
Lesnar has also enjoyed a quick progression to the top as he battled Frank Mir in only his second professional mixed martial arts bout at UFC 81. Despite losing via kneebar to Mir, Lesnar returned at UFC 87 against PRIDE veteran Heath Herring and winning in a lopsided decision. Three months later, he stopped UFC legend Randy Couture in the second round to win the UFC heavyweight title, and he unified the belts at UFC 100 in a dominant performance against Frank Mir.
Three months after his victory over Mir, Lesnar announced that he would have to pull out of his UFC 106 bout with Shane Carwin due to a bout with diverticulitis. In November, it was stated that he was also suffering from mononucleosis, but later found that the two conditions were related in that the diverticulitis caused his battle with mono. The two illnesses combined to make life hard for Lesnar, and he was shelved until the New Year. In the meantime, Carwin and Mir fought for a UFC Interim title, which Carwin now holds.
Both men have used strength, size, and power to overwhelm opponents in their fairly short UFC careers. Lesnar normally cuts down to 265, but estimates have put him at around a whopping 290 pounds at fight time. Carwin is also a fighter who cuts down in weight, but there is some uncertainty as to where each fighter will be at fight time. Lesnar may not balloon due to his trek back from illness and a new diet, and there hasn't been a definitive answer as to where Carwin sits at fight time.
I'm undecided at this point as to who I'll pick, but the smart bet is Lesnar taking Carwin down and pounding him out eventually as the fight wears on. Carwin's best chance is early in the clinch, and I'd expect Lesnar to neutralize those attempts. But we can't ever underestimate the power of the knockout. It changes fights and history in a split second.