Gambling Spotlight: UFC 116 Undercard

Yesterday, I gave an in-depth look at the UFC 116 main event between champion Brock Lesnar and challenger Shane Carwin. Today, I'll touch on each of the undercard fights guaranteed to air on the pay-per-view. Get your wallets ready.

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Odds courtesy of Best Fight Odds:

It's too bad Leben's breaking the record for quickest fight turnaround because I think he could give Akiyama some trouble. Chris has shown he can take a beating and keep on ticking, and Akiyama's never really used his judo game at the highest level in MMA. This will probably look a lot like last year's fight with Belcher, though Akiyama should have a wider edge on Leben this time around. The long layoff is worrisome, but there's more concern with Leben coming off a very tough fight against Aaron Simpson less than two weeks ago. I think it's closer than some people might expect, but I still dig a half unit play on Yoshihiro Akiyama.

Rest of the main card after the jump.

I wish I could sit down with Chris Lytle and get an assurance from him that he'll fight to Brown's weaknesses. Lytle, if you're not aware, already beat Brown outside the UFC a few years ago with a guillotine choke. In his last fight, he pulled off a swanky kneebar on Brian Foster. Problem is, Zuffa set this fight up because both guys will step in there and go toe-to-toe. Of Brown's eight losses, however, six have been by submission. Because of this disparity, I like a half unit on Chris Lytle. I would press more, but there's a good chance he abandons a gameplan in favor of an entertaining fight.

It's nice that the UFC remains loyal to certain fighters, but it's hard to reconcile that with the notion that the organization only houses the best of the best. Bonnar looked competitive against Soszynski in the first go 'round, but I thought the Canadian got the better of the exchanges. Bonnar looks like the same fighter that brawled with Forrest Griffin in 2005, except now he's five years older, five years slower, and with five years more wear-and-tear. This line looks pretty efficient. I gave thought to taking a flier on Bonnar if he went past +200, but I think that's being optimistic with him. Stay away.

With Wanderlei Silva replaced by Chris Leben, this is the fight I'm looking most forward to outside of the main event. Both Sotiropolous and Pellegrino have really stepped up their games in recent fights. I think Pellegrino is being overlooked because of the nature and status of Sotiropolous's win over Joe Stevenson. Pellegrino has much stronger wrestling and cleaner boxing on the feet. There are two concerns, however. George might use his height and reach to his advantage and Kurt gets himself into bad positions (he was winning the Nate Diaz fight until falling into a triangle). Still, this is closer to 50/50, so I like Kurt Pellegrino for a half unit.

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