UFC 116 is a mere two days away and you need to know where to put your money. Today, I highlight the main event between Brock Lesnar and Shane Carwin. Check back tomorrow morning for a rundown of the other four pay-per-view fights.
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Odds courtesy of Best Fight Odds:
| Brock Lesnar UFC HW Champ#2 Heavyweight | vs. | Shane Carwin UFC Interim HW Champ#3 Heavyweight |
| -130 / 56.5% | Best Line | +118 / 45.9% |
| 32 | Age | 35 |
| 6'3" | Height | 6'2" |
| 4 - 1 - 0 | Record | 12 - 0 - 0 |
| 2 / 1 | TKO / SUB | 7 / 5 |
| Team DeathClutch | Camp | Jackson's Submission Fighting |
| W - Mir (TKO) W - Couture (TKO) W - Herring (UD) | Last Three | W - Mir (KO) W - Gonzaga (KO) W - Wain (TKO) |
It should be disclosed for those not in the know, that I am not a Shane Carwin fan (quite the understatement). The following analysis has been done with the the utmost attempt at objectivity, but it should be clear that I do not care for certain boring, self-righteous heavyweights.
There's a handful of unknowns about each guy coming into this fight, so let's get the known variables out of the way.
Both guys are very big and strong. There's no reliable data with regards to their height, but I expect Lesnar has at least an inch on him. The UFC listed Lesnar at an 81" reach at UFC 100 and Shane at 80" at UFC 111. Both men have to make the cut to 265, though Lesnar's camp reports that he'll be right around 265 for weigh-ins.
Lesnar and Carwin both have tremendous power in their strikes, though Carwin has demonstrated more devastating power in his career.
The rest after the jump. Be forewarned: long and rambly!
Lesnar, on the other hand, has demonstrated his wrestling prowess in every fight. He took down Frank Mir at will in both of their bouts and dominated Heath Herring at UFC 87. Conservatively, he held his own with Randy Couture at UFC 91, but we'll come back to that in a bit.
In each of their last two fights, Lesnar and Carwin have exhibited very little hesitation to finish the fight if the opportunity presents itself.
Even though he has fewer fights in his career, Lesnar's time in the cage allows us to define him a little better in a couple areas. He's proven he can go past the first round effectively in all three of his UFC wins. The Herring fight especially showed that he can maintain dominance well past the first five minutes.
The Herring and second Mir fights also showcased Lesnar's ability to follow a gameplan. At UFC 87, Lesnar's camp did not want to risk another loss at the hands of being overzealous, and Brock patiently and methodical worked Herring for fifteen minutes. Last July, Lesnar displayed that patience again, as he beat the fight out of Frank Mir through a round and a half of action.
I believe Brock is also a much better athlete than Shane Carwin. I present the following as evidence, though I wouldn't seriously use this as part of your handicapping. According to this Sports Illustrated report on Shane's draft status in 1998, Carwin ran the 40 yard dash in 4.93 seconds, benched 225 pounds 29 times, has a vertical leap of 30.5", and broad jumped 8'10". According to this link (and unfortunately the PW Torch source link is dead), Lesnar ran the 40 in 4.65 seconds, benched 225 pounds 30 times, has a 35" vertical, and a broad jump of 10 feet. Again, this isn't the most reliable of data, but that's a pretty clear edge for Brock, especially when we consider that Shane is thirteen or so years from those numbers.
I think that pretty well covers what we can say definitively about either man. So where are the question marks?
Let's start with the big one. Brock Lesnar hasn't fought in a year. He made it through some portion of his training camp for his original fight with Carwin last year, but he spent the last months of 2009 recovering from diverticulitis. Lesnar allegedly loss close to fifty pounds before putting the weight back on and resuming training. He has come out and said that he's revamped his diet, which explains why his camp has stated he won't be cutting much, if any weight for this fight.
Much has been made of the effects of injuries and ring rust on a fighter the past couple of months, but it's still safe to be cautious about using the term as a blanket statement. For instance, unlike a serious knee injury, Brock's illness hasn't affected how he trains. Instead, he's just had to wait until the illness faded enough to resume his traditional workouts. The issue for Brock becomes how much the two months out of training and the year span without a fight will play a part in his development as a fighter. There's very little we can do to quantify this. While the year layoff may affect how sharp he is, you can also argue that he's still young enough in his development that he's still able to pick stuff up in the gym while someone with as much experience as a Mirko Cro Cop may not benefit from.
There's also the recent revelation from Lesnar's camp leaking that he'll be fighting southpaw for this fight. This could be a ploy to get into Shane's head. If it is legitimate, whatever he loses in his striking by switching from orthodox, he'll gain in his wrestling by having his power foot forward. I'm willing to call this a wash.
As for Carwin, he's never been past the four minute mark at any point in his career. While there are certainly "questions" about his gas tank, I think those questions often come with a hint of criticism. We have no idea how Shane will perform past round one (if necessary), nor do we know how he'll respond to what shapes up to be a grueling wrestling battle with Lesnar. Even if inside information dictated that Shane's demonstrated fantastic cardio in camp, that still doesn't convince me how he'll handle X minutes in the biggest fight of his life. For handicapping purposes, however, it's safe to assume Carwin has average cardio for the elite fighters in the division. By that, I assume that if the first round is the grueling affair it might be, he will slow down in later rounds, but will not be completely fatigued.
And what about his wrestling? We saw him take down Neil Wain. But that's Neil Wain. He's British. Carwin did handle Frank Mir well in the clinch at UFC 111, but that's the extent of Shane Carwin Wrestling for MMA that we've seen. How does he handle a shot? Will he shoot at all on Lesnar? Questions, questions.
There's an interesting tale about the betting lines for this fight. When Zuffa announced the first bout, Lesnar opened around -180 and shot up near -300 before having to pull out. This time, Lesnar opened around -200 and has been bet down to as low as -130 as of the time of writing. I think there's two things at work here. The first being Lesnar's illness and the conjecture surrounding his new diet and weight. The other is the "what have you done for me lately" factor. Carwin entered the UFC 106 bout coming off an impressive knockout of Gabe Gonzaga, but his performance still left a lot to be desired in his first step up in competition. Gonzaga rocked Carwin with right hands and was able to take him down with a single leg. An impressive recovery for Carwin led to the knockout, but it was not a one-side performance by any means.
His fight with Mir at UFC 111, however, sent the hype train into full effect. Mir mounted very little offense in what was a very slow bout up until the finish. After reeling Mir with an hook and a series of uppercuts, Carwin finished the fight with dominating ground and pound, while looking every bit the beast that he has been made out to be.
And that's where I feel like people are falling into a trap betting Carwin, especially as the line on him has fallen in the past month. Objectively (again, to the best of my ability), I don't see Carwin holding a single advantage over Lesnar outside of power. And there, the level of power that each man possesses makes the point nearly moot. If either guy lands solid on the chin, there's a good chance the lights are going out.
With the observable data, however, what other advantages can we give Carwin? The wrestling pedigree suggests that Brock will fare better there. By all accounts (observed and quantified), Lesnar is a better athlete by a significant though not large degree. Lesnar seems to me that he has at least as much skill on the feet as Carwin as well. Carwin comes from a great camp, but Brock has bought himself a fantastic unit and has shown repeatedly that he can handle following a very specific gameplan, so I don't see an advantage for Carwin there either.
There is one area, in retrospect, that Shane might be able to exploit. A lot has been made about Randy Couture's "takedown" on Brock at UFC 91. I think that's a lot of noise. Randy did do something, however, that I think is worth looking at by controlling Lesnar in stretches along the fence. As noted, Carwin used the clinch against the fence to much success against Frank Mir, and that's an area of the fight I will not be comfortable with if it arises on Saturday night.
So, how does the fight play out? I think a lot will determine on the first round. If Brock controls the first round, I imagine we'll see Carwin on his back for most of it. I think Lesnar drains a lot of energy out of him. And in that case, it becomes very hard for Shane to KO Brock in later rounds and, hence, very hard for Shane to win the fight. If Shane can negate Lesnar's wrestling or win that battle himself, he opens himself up for a very big night. Now, if both camps play a cautious first round, the above transfers over to the second round. In essence, whoever grabs a hold of the advantage first sets themselves up very nicely.
I think given what we know, though, that Lesnar will be able to control this fight. Much has been made about Carwin being Brock's (literally) biggest test. But that same statement can be made for Shane Carwin as well. We really don't know much about Shane's overall game outside of his insane punching power. Therefore, I like a unit play on Lesnar at the current line, though I personally have just under three units at -145.
There's a case to be made until waiting until fight night if you want to hop on Lesnar with me. Most casual bettors make their plays the day before or the day of the fight. As arguably the most hated man in MMA and with Shane's spectacular performance at UFC 111, there's a chance that more money comes in on Carwin as we approach the fight. The optimal play might be to take whatever you're thinking of betting on Lesnar, put a percentage of it down now, and throw the rest down if the line moves favorably.
After writing this opus, I've psyched myself up beyond belief for Saturday. Even as a Lesnar-backer and Shane-hater, the idea of Carwin landing a powerful right hand to put down Lesnar titillates my mind. Hopefully, we don't have to witness that. Good luck.