Dave Meltzer breaks it down:
Coming off a season as a coach on The Ultimate Fighter reality show, and a knockout win over Michael Bisping on UFC 100, the biggest pay-per-view MMA event in history, Henderson is at the peak of his U.S. popularity.
But there is some question whether he and Shields would be able to carry a show that has to do network prime time-level ratings.
...
(Herschel) Walker is the key because for major network prime time, the show needs a mainstream hook. Henderson is the only one of the four headliners who would have a chance to be that draw, as Lawal and Mousasi have not yet established names past the Hardcore audience in this country. Walker, who turns 48 next week but has the body of someone 20 years younger, is significantly better known than Henderson. Even though he's not a top-level fighter, his first fight proved to be a ratings winner and garnered a level of publicity than most Strikeforce events have been unable to get.
In addition to Shields vs Henderson, a possible Herschel Walker fight, and a possible Bobby Lashley fight, Meltzer is expecting Muhammad "King Mo" Lawal to get a crack at Gegard Mousasi's Strikeforce Light Heavyweight title.
While hardcore fans will be somewhat intrigued by Shields vs Henderson, the reality is that Shields is a true welterweight who puffed up to middleweight to avoid fighting training partner Nick Diaz. Hershel Walker is an amazing athlete, physical specimen, and all around great guy, but he's not a top MMA fighter by any stretch.
And while Bobby Lashley might have the potential to contend at the higher levels of the sport, that is very much an unproven proposition. If he fights the formidable Brett Rogers, he will be truly tested. That fight will have some relevance.
But Mousais vs Lawal is at a whole 'nother level. A fight between Mousasi, the #6 ranked light heavyweight in the USAT/SBN Consensus MMA Rankings, and Lawal who is ranked at #19 heavyweight and #21 light heavyweight is more than just a meeting between two top fighters. It's arguably a fight between the two most exciting prospects in the game today. This side of Jon Jones at least. I think Lawal is being rushed a bit, but that's the nature of fighting for the #2 promotion in Strikeforce. Not enough competition to build contenders at a leisurely pace.
Mousasi has essentially cleaned out Strikeforce's light heavyweight division by beating Renaldo "Babalu" Sobral and Sokoudjou. Plus Rafael "Feijao" Cavalcante's loss to Mike Kyle really slowed down Feijao's rise to the top.
One other dot that hasn't been connected yet, is this: when I wrote about Mousasi's split with Fedor's management company M-1 Global, I got the implications all wrong. In my naive optimism, I speculated that perhaps Mousasi's unhappiness with M-1 was a harbinger of Fedor's frustration with them too.
In retrospect it is clear that Mousasi parted ways with M-1 because he very much wants to fight on the April CBS card and M-1 wanted him to hold out along with Fedor. It was rumored that Mousasi's contract with M-1 and Strikeforce included a clause that bound Mousasi to only fight on Strikeforce cards that also featured Fedor. He clearly chose the better course -- being featured on CBS again will be worth far more than any increased monetary pay off that M-1 could squeeze out of CBS/Showtime/Strikeforce.
That is provided that King Mo doesn't demolish him, an unlikely but possible eventuality.
As to what Fedor is up to, it's hard to say. I suspect that DREAM is attampting to put together something with the Russian star. They have been trying to put something together for Josh Barnett, but both Tim Sylvia and Antonio Silva turned that fight down. So Fedor vs Josh in DREAM is a possibility, but the timing makes it seem unlikely for DREAM.13. Alistair Overeem is also possible, but M-1's sudden concern that the Dutchman be drug tested before a fight reeks of a negotiations gambit.
Luke Thomas once told me that Fedor doesn't duck fights out of fear, but he does have a career long pattern of behaving like a player at a blackjack table. Sometimes he passes, sometimes he says hit me. Luke compared Fedor's management's approach to that of Floyd Mayweather and I think that is an apt comparison.
Apparently Fedor and company didn't feel that the risk/reward ratio of facing #10 Fabiricio Werdum was right so they're taking a pass and waiting for the next hand. The thing is, Strikeforce might not be in position to do another deal if their April CBS card is a bomb.
A note about my methods: Unlike some of the other writers on Bloody Elbow (particularly Luke, Brent, and Rome), I am not an MMA insider. Nor am I a reporter. I am a fan who blogs about the sport based on what I read online and see on TV. I do not cultivate inside sources nor do I break stories. This, I like to think, leaves me latitude to engage in (un)informed speculation and report on rumors that I read about online without endangering my relationships with "sources" -- which is easy since I don't have any. So as always, please take my speculations with a great deal of salt.
More Strikeforce in April on CBS Coverage