Josh Gross caught up with this weekend's UFC lightweight title challenger Gray Maynard as he prepares for a rematch and title shot against current champion Frankie Edgar at UFC 125. I rewatched their first fight (and I was there in Colorado live for the first bout) and I'll share what I've observed in just a moment. First, here's Maynard's take on his and Edgar's progression since their first meeting:
"Frankie has definitely improved since the first match," said the boxing trainer. "I think he's gotten away with a lot of things he does well. He's not a person that commits to his punches. He's a combination puncher and will move.
"When you fight B.J. Penn, pretty much a flat-footed person, it will be easy to hit him and move in and out. But Gray is not flat-footed. Frankie is not going to do what he did to B.J. to Gray Maynard."
Still, though Martinez sees an advantage on the feet for his man, the thing that makes their arrangement work is the understanding that Maynard is always comfortable on the ground and, if he has to go there, well, that's just fine.
There was more wrestling than striking in the first Maynard-Edgar bout -- a clean sweep for Maynard on the judges' cards. Both fighters have said that their initial encounter means nothing in the rematch.
"I'm hoping it's a different fight," Edgar said. "And I'm hoping to have a different outcome."
Much as Edgar confidently walked into his rematch with Penn, Maynard promised he will not be the fighter that breaks down on Saturday.
If the champion is "preparing for that, then he's got something else coming," said Maynard -- who's walking around during fight week at 165 pounds, a stone less than his last bout against Kenny Florian in August.
"Our goal with Gray this time," Spangler said, "was not to have him in controlling position, where he's literally holding a guy down, but to put him in a position to attack. The cat's going to come out of the bag and he's going to use it again. It's not like I'm going to teach him once and then it's over. This is Gray's game."
Team Maynard have a point with how Edgar matched up with Penn. In watching Maynard vs. Edgar I, I noticed Maynard was a lot more mobile in the pocket, albeit less polished, and showed Edgar several different looks standing. While Maynard can be docked for sometimes throwing strikes off balance or a little recklessly, he also isn't afraid to experiment. That clearly created confusion in the mind of Edgar and stifled his ability to throw more confidently.
However, if you haven't seen their first fight, you should. Edgar is a completely different fighter now. Watching the Edgar who fought Maynard in 2008 makes me remember why no one gave him a chance against B.J. Penn in their first fight. His footwork was good, but not excellent. His combinations were significantly more limited. He barely used his right hand, now his trademark punch. Worse, his strategy was clearly not appropriate. He wasn't properly mindful of distance and was trying to initiate takedowns against the much bigger, more athletic and frankly, better wrestler. The vast majority of Edgar's takedowns weren't just stuffed, they were stuffed with ease. Edgar lacked the offensive firepower, cage awareness and generalship as well as the strategic vision to win that fight.
I don't know if Edgar didn't throw as confidently in their first bout because Maynard had him off balance by being unpredictable. That could very well be the case. I tend to think, though, that while that played a role, we won't see nearly as much of that this time around. Watching Edgar from then to now is a case study in improvement through hard work. He looks completely different. Everything is fluid now: footwork, movement, distance recognition, combinations and strategy. Maynard was able to land several takedowns (and thus rounds) simply by Edgar allowing him to be close enough to get easily grabbed. I would be very surprised if we see this again.
I saw Maynard live against Nate Diaz and walked away less than impressed with both fighters' performance that night. I adamantly contend there is no way Maynard can win a striking exchange with Edgar, short of miraculous punch. If this stays on the feet, this is Edgar's fight to lose. Maynard's got to make this a wrestling match, something he can surely do, but not with the ease he enjoyed the first time out. The reality is Frankie Edgar's evolution is simply stunning.
Casual and even hardcore fans may not be invested in him. He truly is underappreciated and improperly heralded. I'm not really sure a win over Maynard changes that perception. Either you win excitingly or you don't and if you don't, there are far fewer riches to enjoy as a fighter. Still, look for Edgar to prove he has sailed past Maynard in talent progression. Edgar's evolution is nothing short of stunning and I suspect he'll prove that come Saturday. This is Frankie Edgar 2.0.