UFC 102: Couture vs. Nogueira Predictions
August 29, 2009
Rose Garden Arena in Portland, Oregon
Main Card:
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Randy Couture
Luke Thomas: Where Nogueira has weathered and rusted, Couture has managed to polish and maintain. For me, Couture's submission defense (and yes, the grappling match against Jacare is informative) and reaction speed are going to be enough. And have you noticed the only person repeating the defeated talking point that Couture's weakness is big guys with good ground games is Ed Soares? Gonzaga is stronger and a better wrestler than Nogueira and he couldn't stop the takedown or prevent Couture from delivering punishment. Granted, Nogueira is a guard player at heart and more willing and seemingly able to submission hunt from his back in MMA than Gonzaga, but I don't expect Couture to fight Nog on his best terms until he's been considerably softened. And given that the fight is only for three rounds, I also expect Couture's pace to be relentless. Couture via decision.
Kid Nate: I'm going to pretend that I'm 100% confident that Nogueira will enter the Octagon in the best shape we've seen him since his UFC debut against Heath Herring. Given that assumption, I think Big Nog can outpoint the Natural as long as he can keep the fight out of the clinch and away from the fence. But that won't be enough as Randy will be able to force him against the cage eventually and score with dirty boxing and takedowns (that is if Big Nog doesn't pull guard first). But Big Nog's submission game is going to be stifled up against the cage and Randy will score effective GnP from the top. Couture by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: I've said it several times, when I talk about Nogueira's fall I'm not just looking at the Mir fight. I spent the last week going back and rewatching Nog's last 10 fights and you can see things slowing down in terms of reaction time. Randy can still work his game, especially against guys who aren't significantly bigger than him. While nothing would make me happier than to see Minotauro become a force in the division once again (I am an MMA fan today in large part thanks to him) I just don't see it happening. Randy Couture by TKO, round 2.
Michael Rome: I don't mean any disrespect to Nogueira, but I just don't see him winning here. His boxing has looked poor of late, his reaction time and accuracy have declined rapidly, and I haven't seen a similar decline in Couture. For all his faults, Randy is constantly learning and adding new skills. Nogueira is the same fighter he's always been, training to achieve a past level of ability. I may have egg on my face at the end of the night, but I think this is going to be a beating. Even if Nog comes out on fire standing, Randy has the style and ability to take him down and hurt him without getting submitted. Randy Couture via decision.
Mike Fagan: I don't think the Fall of Nog is as imminent as everyone else, but I'm still unsure what I think of this fight. Couture presents a style and an understanding of MMA that will make it very difficult for Nogueira to finish him. Still, I think people are sleeping a bit on Nogueira's standup, especially given his height and reach advantage. My heart says Nog, my head says Randy, and because I expect most people to pick the Natural, I'll take Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by decision.
Eugene Schelfaut: Randy will dictate the placement of the fight against his larger opponent. Randy will be quicker for longer. He can score in half-guard and against the cage. Nogueira's career is not over I'm guessing, but I just cannot wish myself into his submission victory. Randy Couture by TKO, round 3.
Leland Roling: Randy's age versus Nogueira's perceived age in MMA years is the ultimate question. While Randy is 46, he has shown massive strength, unbelievable work ethic, intelligence in the Octagon, and a knack for finding ways to win. His boxing seems to be improving nicely for this fight as well, and he does have the knowledge of the submission game to avoid any trickery from Nogueira. Nogueira's problem still relies on the fact that he's likely over 50 in MMA years in terms of taking so much punishment that his chin has weakened. I think Randy is going to put Nogueira into his world and push a frantic pace over three rounds. Randy Couture via TKO, Round 3.
Keith Jardine vs. Thiago Silva
Luke Thomas: This is the sort of fight where the favorite (Jardine) has the tools to win the fight in terms of distancing, conditioning, and yes, wrestling, but has been known to abandon those tools in favor of some other end he's trying to reach. Silva has the power to make Jardine's night difficult, but there are issues about his conditioning, a problem Jardine does not have. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Jardine. I honestly don't know who to pick here given that while Jardine is better, he also could easily collapse under the pressure Silva provides. Yes, Jardine defeated Vera, a far better fighter than Silva, but Vera is also hesitant. Silva is not. Will that be enough? I'm guessing not. Jardine by TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: This fight is a conundrum. Jardine's awkward striking style could potentially confound Silva and win him a decision. On the other hand, Silva could easily reach Jardine's vulnerable chin early and end it quickly. The X factor to me is whether or not Silva could get the fight to the ground and keep it there. I think that Silva could finish Jardine if he can get dominant position on the ground. Since I can imagine two routes to victory for Silva and only one for Jardine, I'm going to pick Thiago Silva by TKO.
Brent Brookhouse: It's a battle of two guys with defensive liabilities. While Jardine works an awkward counterstriking style he has a very dentable chin and Silva is the hard charging all out guy who just leaves himself open to countershots. If I had more faith in Keith's chin I'd pick him by easy decision, but I think Thiago's power will catch him at some point and it will be the end. Thiago Silva by TKO, round 2.
Michael Rome: I have been a Thiago Silva skeptic for a long time. He has power, but he leaves his chin wide open and I think he's going to get tagged. He's also impatient, which I think will hurt him here. Either Silva wins early or Jardine wins a decision, I'm thinking the latter. Jardine via decision.
Mike Fagan: "The more I know, the less I know." Pretty much describes my feelings with Keith Jardine. The more tape I see of him, the less I understand his success at the upper levels of MMA. The fact that he's been steamrolled by two guys just adds to his enigma. Silva's a guy who can do that to him, and I think he has the go-forward mentality that will prevent him from being flummoxed by Jardine's herky-jerky movement. Thiago Silva by TKO, round 2.
Eugene Schelfaut: Reliving some of Silva's wins on the Countdown show has changed my mind on this fight. Silva will be drawn into exchanging with Jardine where he, Jardine, can outpoint for a decision. Keith Jardine by decision.
Leland Roling: The smart money is on Keith Jardine riding this one out to decision, but I'm going to bank on Thiago Silva coming out at a tenacious pace and tagging Jardine early. Silva's aggression should be the key to victory. Thiago Silva via TKO, Round 1.
Jake Rosholt vs. Chris Leben
Luke Thomas: I suspect Rosholt is rather rapidly going to get Leben to the floor and make him look bad. Hell, Rosholt may even force Leben into looking bad on the feet given some of Leben's sloppier tendencies. But Leben has good submission defense and crippling power, particularly for a fighter like Rosholt who has clear defensive liabilities standing. Leben via TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: I can't believe I'm about to pick Chris Leben over one of the best pure wrestlers to ever enter MMA but I have been anything but impressed with Rosholt's ability to apply those skills in the cage. Rosholt has very rudimentary striking defense and Chris Leben hits really really hard. Leben by TKO.
Brent Brookhouse: I want to say I have faith in Rosholt here but his standup has looked pretty awful to this point in his career and Leben is a crafty veteran who can probably manage to stay on his feet long enough to do some damage. If Osterneck was rocking Rosholt frequently, Leben will put him to sleep. Chris Leben by KO, round 1.
Michael Rome: I like Rosholt, but I see him getting slept by Leben. He might even take a round, but eventually he's going to get cracked and I think he'll be in trouble. Leben via KO, round 3.
Mike Fagan: I love prospects, and I've been interested in Rosholt ever since I heard about him on the Jordan Breen Show. Unfortunately, after seeing Nissen Osterneck tee off on his face, I'm not sure how he will escape a big Leben left. Chris Leben by TKO, round 2.
Eugene Schelfaut: How many times can Rosholt get hit here? It seems like an experiment. Leben will be taken down, but will survive off of his back until a stand-up or the end of a round. It might be a Terry Martin type of a deal where Leben wins at the end of the 3rd, but Chris Leben wins by TKO.
Leland Roling: I'm going to go out on a limb in this fight. While Leben has the KO power to put Rosholt in his place, I don't think his BJJ skills are enough to stop the three-time NCAA D-I wrestler from smothering Leben and pressing his conditioning over the three rounds. I'm going with the upset bid. Jake Rosholt via unanimous decision.
Nate Marquardt vs. Demian Maia
Luke Thomas: The most interesting and most difficult fight on the card to forecast. It's impossible to deny that Marquardt's skill set is something Maia categorically has not faced in MMA competition. I also believe his defensive wrestling and submission avoidance (not just defense) is noteworthy. But I also believe Marquardt is error prone over the course of three rounds. He's recently been very over aggressive, something that will play directly into Maia's hands. Yes, Maia will struggle mightily. Yes, Jason MacDonald fought off submission attempts, but so what? MacDonald was still LOSING THE FIGHT. Just because Maia doesn't finish an opponent doesn't mean he can't win on points. Marquardt will hurt Maia and likely very badly, but his newfound aggression will ultimately be his undoing. Maia by decision.
Kid Nate: This is the fight of the night for the hardcore fans. Eighteen months ago this would have been a classic battle between a fighter (Marquardt) who is very well rounded but has no single standout skill against a fighter (Maia) who has only limited skills in one aspect of the game and absolute mastery of another. But Marquardt's re-emergence as a knock-out artist in his last few fights complicates matters. Still Maia's mastery of submission is no joke and his surprisingly good wrestling makes this very interesting. Based on a coin toss, I'm picking Marquardt by TKO.
Brent Brookhouse: Marquardt has the game to give Maia fits. I also think he is smart enough to not play around on the ground, despite his insistence that he can if he wants. While I understand that all Maia needs to get the fight down is pull guard, I also understand that Marquardt can likely ably survive until he stands back up ten seconds later. I don't think this will be as close as anyone thinks. Marquardt by dominating TKO, round 2.
Michael Rome: I am a Maia proponent and a Marquardt skeptic, so my pick is no mystery. Nate's MMA wrestling isn't that great, I think Maia can take him down, but I don't think it will be over at that point. I think this is Maia's night, I expect him to surprise Nate standing and then sub him. Maia via submission, round 1.
Mike Fagan: If I knew Demian could survive punishment like a prime Nog, I would take him in a heart beat here. I love both these guys, but I find that Nate gets too sloppy at times, in addition to having some poor technique (check out the gambling article for deets). I usually don't take too many underdogs for these predictions, but Demian Maia by submission, round 1 makes it 3 of 5 on the main card.
Eugene Schelfaut: Nate Marquardt will have to fight boring if he is to win here. Maia will capitalize on Marquardt's new zealous search for a finish, clinch and transition into his world from there. Demian Maia by submission, round 2.
Leland Roling: My heart says Maia, my mind says Marquardt. The telling sign that Marquardt can win is the MacDonald vs. Maia fight in which Maia had a hard time dealing with some of the strength that MacDonald presented. I don't think Maia can dominate Marquardt like he did MacDonald on the floor, and he may end up eating a lot more punches than actually holding Marquardt in his guard. I'll take Marquardt via TKO, Round 3.
Krzysztof Soszynski vs. Brandon Vera
Luke Thomas: I worry about a confident, aggressive opponent constantly bringing the fight to Vera, who tends to get overwhelmed. Even when Vera wins, often he's being pushed and lately he's been pushed and loses. However, Vera's power is deeply underrated as is his accuracy. I admire Soszynski's career turnaround and how he's augmented his skill set, but Vera's going to find a tiny opening and pour it on from there the longer they stand. Vera, by TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: If Brandon Vera really is back, this will be short and ugly. Vera by KO.
Brent Brookhouse: I'm not sold on Soszynski. Brandon Vera by universe correcting TKO, round 1.
Michael Rome: I think this is going to be a blowout. I could look like an idiot monday, but here goes nothing. Vera via KO, round 1.
Mike Fagan: I'm sure Brent will say it first, but I'm still not sold on Soszynski. And I still think Vera can be a top guy. Brandon Vera by TKO, round 1.
Eugene Schelfaut: If the old Vera shows up he should win this. I just want to be impressed again by Vera. Brandon Vera by decision.
Leland Roling: Soszynski has shown some improved striking in his last few fights along with some added power, but Vera should be the much more well-rounded fighter. He has a much more dynamic striking game with his Muay Thai base and punching, but he'll also have the added advantage of his BJJ on the floor. Vera is always a question however, so I wouldn't be surprised at an upset win by K-Sos in this fight. I still can't pick him though. Brandon Vera via TKO, Round 2.
