Saturday evening's Strikeforce main event went as expected for many fans as former PRIDE heavyweight champion Fedor Emelianenko threw a devastating overhand right that knocked Brett Rogers out at the 1:48 mark of the second round. The post-fight reaction wasn't very forgiving as some fans felt that a second round TKO and the performance of Fedor during the first round of action was a sure sign that Fedor has been "exposed".
The most disturbing negative analysis following Fedor's win focuses solely on the fact that Rogers was able to momentarily maul Fedor against the fence and actually last until the second round. While I would definitely say that Rogers proved he could hang with some of the best heavyweights in the world with his performance, this is a sport in which "punching" and "ground and pound" are always evident in battles. To say that Fedor has been suddenly exposed due to a cut/broken nose and an effective barrage of punches on the floor would be a bit premature at this point.
Rogers did show the world that he can use his size and power to make his showdown with Fedor a very competitive battle. He was able to put Fedor down, land some powerful ground and pound, and press Fedor into the cage and control him at times. His weaknesses on the ground were displayed in the fight, however, and it ultimately led to Fedor being able to escape those bad positions in which he was in some brief danger from Rogers.
Lots of animated gifs and technical fight breakdowns in the full entry.
From a technical standpoint, Fedor Emelianenko's stand-up game has never been that dynamic. He almost never uses kicks, and his striking is usually a combination of quickness coupled with power in the form of vicious overhands. He doesn't have the technical prowess of a world class boxer, nor does he stand and jab with speedy efficiency. Rogers was the better striker as far as mechanics are concerned, but Fedor is one of the only fighters in this sport who can completely nullify those advantages by the attributes in which he's superior: speed and power.
Rogers' best punch was the quick left jab he threw in the first round that caught Fedor flush on the nose, nearly breaking it. Fedor, at the same moment, tried to throw his own left jab to set up a powerful overhand right, but Rogers' landing blow threw off the trajectory of the massive punch just enough for Rogers to escape. While Rogers damaged Fedor in the exchange, it's interesting to note that Rogers wasn't able to string together flurries in the striking department when both men were toe-to-toe due to the fear of being countered by Fedor's heavy hands. Even while being caught on the initial exchange, Fedor went forward with the combination... a tactic that could have paid off if Rogers had tried to throw a right.
The most significant moment of the fight was the flurry of ground and pound that Rogers landed during the first round. Rogers' quickness during the flurry probably left a little power out of the combination of punches, but it was the right call. Fedor has always been very adept at catching arms and pulling off armbars, and throwing heavy overhands while in guard normally doesn't come with great speed. Rogers lands roughly three "on the button" shots during the exchange, but the impressive portion of the exchange is the determination by Fedor to escape.
In classic PRIDE style, Fedor latches onto Rogers' arm during the flurry and immediately transitions to the armbar, a tactic he used against a bulked up Mark Coleman twice while being pounded. Rogers' flurry was much more dangerous than anything Coleman ever landed back in those PRIDE battles, but the technique was virtually the same. Couture vs. Inoue ended in nearly the same fashion as well, and it's a tactic that can not only end a fighter's night quickly -- it can work as an escape from danger.
Does this give us a sense that Fedor has been exposed? Not really. While Rogers landed some powerful shots during the exchange, it ultimately leads me into the territory of discussion where we begin to focus on how well Fedor can do against such large opponents. Rogers was roughly 30 lbs. heavier at weigh-ins, so the ability for larger guys to lean and move Fedor to the floor isn't surprising. It could be a tactic that we'll see in the future from much heavier opponents, but they'll still need to contend with Fedor's tactical ground game and power punching.
As I mentioned early, Fedor's ability to throw combinations with power is a huge danger for his opponents. In the first round, Fedor landed a stunning uppercut during a flurry of blows that backed up Rogers. I'm not immensely interested in the actual combo that Fedor landed as I am by the inability of Rogers to string together strikes. Fedor tried to land the overhand right multiple times while throwing it over the incoming jab. While the strike doesn't land, Rogers immediately knows the hurt is incoming from the left. It completely nullified Rogers' ability to throw any sort of combination in the fight, and it truly gave Fedor a significant edge standing.
The final exchange in which Fedor lands the vicious overhand right that ends the battle was truly an exchange that a studious Fedor had managed to find during the first round of action. Rogers was unable to mix up his strikes, always led with his left hand, and continued to step into his strikes with his left lead leg, almost signaling when punches were coming. Unfortunately for Rogers, he tried to throw a looping left instead of a straight jab during the final exchange.
Would it have mattered? Probably not. Fedor steps, sees Rogers lurching forward, and throws the overhand without any wind-up. It was quick, accurate, and powerful, and it was the product of a learning process from those initial attacks in the first round. The movement of Rogers is nearly identical from earlier exchanges, and Fedor likely dissected those exchanges into what we saw at the end of the fight.
Make all the negative comments you want about his performance being a bit subpar for your liking, but he managed to put Rogers' striking game on ice for most of this fight. With the exception of the stinging jab that caused the bloody mess on Fedor's nose in the first round, Rogers almost never threw combinations of punches. He was mostly on the defensive during exchanges, and he became a guy who had to use his size to his advantage against the fence and on the ground. Fedor created a situation in which the roles had reversed.