Strikeforce: Fedor vs. Rogers
November 7, 2009
Sears Centre in Chicago, Illinois
Maincard:
Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers
Luke Thomas: It's borderline irrational to pick Rogers. One would have to make a highly specific, extremely compelling case based on thoroughly vetted evidence to even sniff reasonable territory where a Rogers pick makes sense. But I will say this: I think he'll lose, but earn himself some credibility with hardcores. I do tend to think Rogers is highly durable and packs a serious wallop in his punch. He is limited and that will be his undoing, but the idea that he is some also-ran that Fedor will clean out like Ogawa after he refused to touch the Russian's gloves doesn't ring true with me. It's MMA and either man could go to sleep within seconds, but I find that possibility on either end unlikely. I think Rogers will be overwhelmed, but not before proving he isn't a warm body for Fedor to sacrifice on the altar of keeping his number one ranking. Fedor by TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: Rogers is very formidable -- I'd love to see how he stacks up in the UFC heavyweight division against the likes of Kongo, Herring, Rothwell, Nelson, dos Santos, even Cro Cop -- but Fedor is FEDOR and there's a reason he's the greatest heavyweight of all time. Several reasons actually, including his hand speed, punching power, ability to transition, takedowns, ground and pound and submissions. Rogers has a punchers chance, but Fedor will win this one. Fedor Emelianenko by submission, Round 1.
Brent Brookhouse: When I wrote the piece breaking down Fedor's striking I was initially studying film to see where I thought Rogers may be able to get to him. Instead it just cemented the fact that Rogers' only real chance is to catch Fedor in an exchange, unless he somehow developed into a more complete and tactical fighter. To beat Fedor striking takes patience and timing, or blind luck. As much as I like Brett he'll be relying on the latter. Fedor Emelianenko by submission, round 1.
Michael Rome: I'll open myself up for ridicule here. I don't think this is even a fight. Rogers is the new Houston Alexander, ranked high off a crazy upset but not even a "very good" fighter, let alone great. I think he'll get killed standing too; this fight is designed for Fedor to massacre him. Fedor via submission, round 1.
Chris Nelson: I've had this sinking feeling the past week or so, a little View-Master reel that flicks through my head wherein Brett Rogers comes out swinging, dusts Fedor in seconds, then does the big Grim dance while hoisting the WAMMA belt over his head (upside down). In truth, I've gotten this vibe before every Fedor fight since Mark Hunt, but Brett Rogers' comments today about feeling maybe a little psyched out by Fedor's demeanor told me what I already knew deep down: Fedor can't lose this fight. In fact, he may have already won. It simply shouldn't happen, and I don't believe it will. Fedor via submission, round one.
Eugene Schelfaut: I will offer a more maladroit expression of Rome's position. This feels like such a waste and afterward I will be left feeling incomplete and a little tired. Fedor Emelianenko by his name and TKO, Round 1.
Nick Thomas: Fedor by clinch, takedown and submission.
Leland Roling: Fedor has the advantage in every aspect of this fight, including the striking game. The only real chance that Rogers has is if he can blast Fedor before the initial flurry of devasting blows peppers Rogers' face and ultimately leads to a takedown. I'll bank on Fedor winning that battle. Fedor Emelianenko via submission, Round 1.
Mike Fagan: I think we all know where I stand on this fight. Rogers offers very little (at least from what we've seen) outside of his size and power, and Fedor's never had an issue with either of those things. Fedor wins this by however he wants, and I'll go with Fedor Emelianenko by TKO, round 1.
Jake Shields vs. Jason "Mayhem" Miller
Luke Thomas: Part of me feels like Miller's durability and defensive savvy are going to keep him in this fight for the long haul. But that's just it: keep him in the fight. I keep seeing in my head Shields working for passes or keeping his base on Miller as he rolls from mount to give up the back and to the mount again. Offensively he is better on the feet and if Shields gasses late Miller will kill him, but will he have already dropped 3 or 4 rounds? Most likely. Shields by unanimous decision.
Kid Nate: Mayhem is bigger, a slightly better striker and very hard to submit. Shields has a huge wrestling advantage and the discipline to keep his head and keep the fight where he needs it to be -- on the ground, with Mayhem on his back. Shields won't do much to hurt him though and won't be able to get the tap out. If this was a three round fight it would be an easy pick for Shields to win, but holding Mayhem down for five rounds is going to be exhausting and once they're tired, Mayhem will have an edge in the slopfest that ensues. It won't be enough though, Shields by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: This is a really good fight. Mayhem is better standing and bigger but his defensive wrestling is a major issue for this fight. I don't think Shields is as good of a wrestler as many seem to...but Mayhem has always been too willing (or just unable) to end up on the ground. I'd be shocked if either guy finishes the fight and as such it's really a matter of if Miller is able to stay on his feet for enough of the fight to steal rounds. I don't see it happening. Jake Shields by decision.
Michael Rome: Unfortunately for Mayhem, his takedown defense has never been there, and I see him losing a lopsided decision where he spends most of the time on his back. A 5 round borefest could kill this show on CBS; I hope that doesn't happen. Shields via decision.
Chris Nelson: I'm with the general consensus that Shields will grind Mayhem down for the duration of this one, but I'm thinking he can also wear him out and finish him in the championship rounds. Jake Shields via TKO, round four.
Eugene Schelfaut: Did you know grapple could also be a term used to denote a grape and apple hybrid? Funny, and yet interesting. Use this gem against those around you in the fourth when Jake Shields scores a takedown at the beginning of the round that will last him until the end of it. Jake Shields by decision, Round 5.
Nick Thomas: Can Shields submit Miller? I doubt it. Will Shields have the cardio for 5 rounds? We'll find out. I see Shields winning the majority of rounds with takedowns. Shields by decision.
Leland Roling: I love this fight in terms of styles as both Miller and Shields have solid grappling ability. I'd give the edge to Shields as he's positionally a more dominating fighter, but Mayhem should have a slight edge on the feet with his natural middleweight size and reach being the deciding factors. If Mayhem can keep it standing, he could point his way to victory, but I think Shields will ultimately dominate Miller on the floor in a positional battle. Jake Shields via unanimous decision.
Mike Fagan: This will go to a decision most of the time. Mayhem nullifies Shields grappling (at least he finishing aspect) and he doesn't have any sort of KO power standing up. I do think Miller's being undervalued, and while I expect Shields to actually win most of the time, I'll go with Jason Miller by decision, anyway.
Gegard Mousasi vs. Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou
Luke Thomas: However Mousasi wants it, he takes it. He's physically tough and has the technical skills in any department to overwhelm Sokoudjou. It's just a matter of time. As he stated on the Jordan Breen Show, ground and pound is his favorite part of his game. So, Mousasi by TKO, round 1.
Kid Nate: Poor Sokoudjou, he's a living cautionary tale to young fighters who might be tempted to jump into big money matches too early in their careers. Mousasi is too well-rounded for Sokou by far. Mousasi's freakish reach alone will give Sokou fits. Mousasi by submission in 2.
Brent Brookhouse: Sokoudjou has a lot of punching power, sure. We can also pretend that his judo background is relevant. This is going to be decided on the feet and I can see it being a replay of Soko/Cane in that Mousasi just weathers the early storm, picking out a few spots to land and come the second round he'll pour it on and end it. Gegard Mousasi by TKO, round 2.
Michael Rome: Sokoudjou has a much better chance than Brett Rogers, but that ain't saying much. Mousassi is just on another level everywhere, this should be a fun fight though. Mousassi via TKO, round 3.
Chris Nelson: Folks are giving Sokoudjou about as much of a chance to beat Mousasi as they did Nogueira, maybe less. That means it's time to pick him. Sokoudjou via TKO, round one.
Eugene Schelfaut: I have not yet found a fight which would allow me to make a move and improve my picking percentage over the group's. I can't steal a W here and neither can Sokoudjou. Mousasi pounds it out on the floor after Sokoudjou gasses out, but it could be before even that, leading to Gegard Mousasi winning by TKO, Round 1.
Nick Thomas: Mousasi can win this standing or on the ground. Mousasi by TKO.
Leland Roling: Sokoudjou has a puncher's chance to pull off an upset, but Mousasi is easily the better fighter in every aspect of this fight. He's a much more technical striker, better on the floor, and he's surgical with his power striking from top control. He'll punch out Sokoudjou in quick fashion. Gegard Mousasi via TKO, Round 1.
Mike Fagan: Mousasi's gonna roll this chump. Sokoudjou's a bully fighter, gasses quickly, and doesn't have much of a ground game. Mousasi's part of the vanguard of MMA 3.0. Gegard Mousasi by TKO, round 1.
Fabricio Werdum vs. Antonio "Bigfoot" Silva
Luke Thomas: Of the two Werdum is by far the better grappler. Silva is the more well-rounded of the two, but lacks something critical: the ability to withstand punishment in order to keep mixing it up or push the action. He's technical until he's pressured and Werdum often gets very little credit for being highly durable. Yes, Cigano dropped him, but generally speaking Werdum is capable of absorbing tons of damage to pursue the fight. Eventually Silva is going to get worn down and Werdum will pounce. Werdum, by TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: Silva is a massively powerful physical specimen, but I'm afraid he's the Brett Rogers in this bout, oversized and underskilled. Although he's never quite put his many talents into a package greater than the sum of their parts, Werdum is by far the better grappler and his Muay Thai is decent enough to out score the sluggish Bigfoot. The winner gets to lose to Fedor. Werdum by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: I remain fairly unsure of Silva's true standing in the division. This is a guy who came close to losing a decision to Ricco Rodriguez...and I'm talking about "Fat Ricco" not the athletic former champion. Werdum getting knocked out by Dos Santos isn't really an indication that Silva can get to him. JDS has really good power but also that was a perfectly timed shot. I just think Werdum is the better fighter and that he'll pull off the win. Fabricio Werdum by decision.
Michael Rome: Strikeforce would be better off if Silva won, they could market a giant against Fedor much better than a jiu-jitsu world champion. Unfortunately for them, the most likely outcome is Silva gassing, getting taken down, and getting submitted. Werdum via submission, round 2.
Chris Nelson: I'm so into this fight - only Fedor-Rogers and Sengoku's pair of main events top it for me in this packed weekend. Werdum should take this, but he should've taken the Cigano fight too. Methinks Bigfoot catches him early. Antonio Silva via TKO, round one.
Eugene Schelfaut: After I see Werdum take a few to the jaw and not explode I'll feel better. There is a tier of better feeling on top of that if Werdum can trip this to the ground. Fabricio Werdum by decision.
Nick Thomas: What a great fight here. I don't think Werdum will threaten Silva on the ground. With that it's Silva by TKO.
Leland Roling: This is a tough fight to pick as both Werdum and Silva have distinct advantages in their skill-sets. Werdum will be the better grappler while Silva should have more power in the striking department. Werdum hasn't historically shown a weakness in being knocked out as some fans seem to believe due to his showing against Dos Santos, and he should be the more dominant fighter on the ground. For that reason, I'll take Werdum. Fabricio Werdum via unanimous decision.
Mike Fagan: When this is your lead-in fight, you know you have a good card lined up. By far the hardest fight to pick on the main card, but I think Werdum's gonna be a too athletic for Silva if he comes in to the fight in shape. Fabricio Werdum by submisison, round 3.
Mike Fagan: It's usually good to take the other side of a fight that ended controversially. Marloes Coenen by decision.
Mark Miller vs. Deray Davis
Luke Thomas: It's not as if Miller - despite being the veteran and having fought tougher competition - is the easy pick here. Davis has plenty of power to give Miller trouble and against better competition, Miller falls. So is his experience that worthwhile? I'm not sure, but I'll give him the nod for being the more known commodity. Miller by decision.
Kid Nate: The drop-off in talent from the Strikeforce main card to the undercard is deeper than an abyssal crevasse on Mount Everest. Miller by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: Deray is another local guy and he does have some pretty decent power. Davis suffered his first loss in Bellator FC, but it's hard to say what exactly that means considering that he was fighting for the second time in 7 days. Still, Miller is the experienced guy who probably won't be as phased by the bigger stage. Mark Miller by TKO, round 1.
Michael Rome: Miller via KO, round 2.
Chris Nelson: I'm... not really familiar. I do vaguely remember Mark Miller puking on The Ultimate Fighter a few seasons ago. He's faced stiffer opposition and has been on the big/medium stage more often than his opponent here, so I suppose I'll take Miller via TKO, round one.
Eugene Schelfaut: 100 percent confidence. Deray Davis by decision.
Nick Thomas:
Leland Roling: Both Davis and Miller are local guys with Miller having a huge edge in terms of experience and strength of competition. Miller's stint with the IFL saw him in battles with Brad Blackburn, Josh Neer, Jay Hieron, and Delson Heleno. I think the experience and the power of Miller will prevail in this showdown. Mark Miller by TKO, Round 2.
Mike Fagan: I'll go with the local play. Deray Davis by decision.
Christian Uflacker vs. Jonatas Novaes
Luke Thomas: I just hope this doesn't resemble Monson vs. Cruz. Experience wins the day here. Novaes by split decision.
Kid Nate: One of my rules of thumb is that a match between two really good BJJ guys almost never turns out to be a great grappling match. Instead I'm expecting a sloppy and bad kickboxing match which Uflacker will take by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: For those of you who don't know anything about these guys, it's going to be a really good grappling match. Novaes has been out of action since March of '08 while Uflacker has been out since June of the same year. I'll go with the experience but this is kind of a toss-up. Jonatas Novaes by submission, round 2.
Michael Rome: Brent sounds convincing. Novaes via submission, round 2.
Chris Nelson: Carlson Gracie product Uflacker is a bona fide BJJ whiz, but Novaes' experience should give him the edge over his expat countryman. Jonatas Novaes via decision.
Eugene Schelfaut: Novaes has more fights. Jonatas Novaes by decision.
Nick Thomas:
Leland Roling: Both men are Brazlian jiu-jitsu black belts with Novaes remaining a bit more active in the regional scene in the U.S. in grappling tournaments such as NAGA and Grappler's Quest. Uflacker is a Carlos Gracie Jr. black belt while Novaes received his under Brock Lesnar's BJJ trainer, Rodrigo "Comprido" Medeiros. It's a tough fight to call, but I'll go with Christian "Xaropinho" Uflacker via decision.
Mike Fagan: What Eugene said. Novaes by decision.
Louis Taylor vs. Nate Moore
Luke Thomas: Of the two, Moore has the more reliable skills and and the better camp. That's not a guarantee of anything, but enough of an insurance policy for me. Moore by decision.
Kid Nate: This one could be a fun slug and slamfest. I'm taking Moore because the better wrestler wins this kind of fight most of the time. Moore by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: Taylor is a local guy with pretty explosive power. He likes to go for big slams and is powerful enough to reverse when they fail (and sometimes they succeed quite well - go search Louis Taylor Aaron Kreke on Youtube). Moore has good wrestling but I have to think the hometown boy pulls it off. Louis Taylor by TKO, round 2.
Michael Rome: Taylor has sweet slams, so I'm picking him. Taylor via TKO, round 1.
Chris Nelson: Two guys with wrestling pedigrees - Moore captained at Purdue, Taylor wrestled at Eastern Illinois. In rounding out his MMA game, Moore's acquired some nice BJJ, but I like the heavy hands and punishing top game of Taylor here. Louis Taylor via TKO, round two.
Eugene Schelfaut: I'll pick a wrestler. Nate Moore by decision.
Nick Thomas:
Leland Roling: AKA-product Nate Moore and former wrestling captain at Purdue (Hmmm.. just like Jon Fitch) will battle local fighter Louis Taylor. I'm a bit hesistant to pick Moore based on his last fight ending via a devastating knee knockout, but he has the training camp and wrestling to put Taylor in a world of trouble here. Nate Moore via TKO, Round 2.
Mike Fagan: More Chi-town love. Louis Taylor by TKo, round 1.
Jeff Curran vs. Dustin Neace
Luke Thomas: Jeff Curran against a guy who has no business fighting Jeff Curran. I wonder what will happen? Curran, by submission, round 1.
Kid Nate: Let's get that career back on track Jeff! Curran by submission.
Brent Brookhouse: No one deserves a few easy wins more than Curran. Here's hoping he gets his career back on the winning path. Jeff Curran by submission, round 1.
Michael Rome: This should be an easy win for Curran. Curran via submission, round 1.
Chris Nelson: When it was announced that Jeff Curran had signed with Strikeforce, I wondered... why? What do they have to offer him in terms of quality opponents at 145? The answer is: not a lot, really. Incidentally, while looking for tape on Neace, I came across this Sherdog forum post which he made in September: "No one [whom Fedor has] fought in the last 5 years you would pick right now to beat any top 20 HW in the UFC. I get so fucking sick of this." He was subsequently banned. Jeff Curran via decision.
Eugene Schelfaut: Will I remember to look for this fight? Jeff Curran by submission, Round 1.
Nick Thomas:
Leland Roling: Jeff Curran via submission, Round 1
Mike Fagan: Yeah, Curran. Jeff Curran by submission, round 1.