While Fedor Emelianenko vs. Brett Rogers has gained much of the attention from mainstream media and casual fans as the fight to watch on Saturday night, it may not actually end up as the best fight this card produces in the end. The middleweight championship title bout between Jason "Mayhem" Miller (22-6) and Jake Shields (23-4-1) has all the indications of being a true war between two former training partners who are stylistically very well-matched against each other.
Shields will enter this contest riding a twelve-fight win streak with his most recent win coming in June against Robbie Lawler at a catchweight of 182 pounds. Miller has fought twice this year with a first round submission victory over Kala Hose and a No Contest decision at DREAM 9 in which Miller unintentionally landed a soccer kick to Ronaldo Souza's forehead that cut him. Souza could not continue, thus the no contest was ruled.
While Fedor vs. Rogers is intriuging for the simple fact that people want to see if Rogers can bring an end to Fedor's reign, the more likely outcome will be that Fedor demolishes Rogers inside the first round. A surprise outcome would certainly be spectacular, but it's tough to gauge who would win a five-round bout between Jason Miller and Jake Shields, which makes it a fight that hardcore fans are eagerly awaiting.
Shields is a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt under Cesar Gracie with an extensive wrestling background and has been working to improve his stand-up with training in kickboxing and Muay Thai. He'll be the favorite when it comes to the grappling department, but Miller is savvy enough to avoid submissions on the floor. He's also a very durable fighter in that he's very tough to finish, and Shields will find it difficult to pound out Miller if he can gain a positional advantage from the top.
There in lies the strategic problem for Shields in this match-up. While he has the grappling acumen to be a real terror, can he actually finish Miller? It's doubtful. After all, Miller survived various submission attempts from one of the best grapplers on paper in MMA in Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza and he withstood a dominating beatdown by Georges St. Pierre back at UFC 52 without succumbing to unconsciousness or tapping out.
While many fans would say that Miller is simply a promotional character rather than a real fighter, I'd go against that argument. Miller's entertainment factor is a selling point, but he's one of the hardest fighters to finish in the sport. He has some of the best defensive grappling and pure grit among any fighter in the business, and he's a fairly well-rounded fighter who can work submissions and use his reach within the framework of his solid striking game.
The other factor in this match-up is that this will be a five round fight that Shields will likely have to go five rounds in order to win. Miller will be nearly impossible to submit, and it could be said that Miller has the advantage in the striking department with his reach and experience as well as being a natural middleweight who should be bigger. While Shields continues to improve his striking, it's never been at a high level, and he'll be looking to control Miller on the ground in this bout. Takedown defense will become a key issue for Miller as it's been lacking in past fights, and Shields does combine the aspects of his jiu-jitsu with his wrestling experience. Miller isn't exactly a slouch when it comes to his own takedown abilities however.
As with any match-up, there are x-factors. Both men have trained together before, so they'll know what to expect from each other on the ground and in striking exchanges. There have been reports that Miller is in the best shape of his life and that he really put in the work to come into this fight at a peak. Hopefully, that means the technical aspects of his skill-set have improved as well. If they have, Jason "Mayhem" Miller should be able to pull off the upset in this match-up that should be a pick 'em bout.