What are you making on your savings account? Point-two-five percent? Got an even one percent on that CD? I laugh at your pitiful attempts at increasing your earning power. Put your faith in Fedor, sir.
Ignorant bettors will scoff, thinking that you should never bet on a line this chalk heavy. Don't listen to those chumps. The fundamental theorem of gambling is this: when the expected win percentage of an event is greater than the odds presented, you profit.
Even at the worst odds available (-625 at Bodog), Emelianenko still brings in tremendous value. Conservatively (very conservatively), I have Fedor as a 90% favorite in this fight. According to the Kelly Criterion, we should be betting approximately 27.5% of our bankroll given the odds and our expected win probability (using a more risk-averse, half-Kelly number yields 14.7%).
And if you've been paying attention to my advice with regards to hitting lines early and often, you'll have noticed that Fedor sat between -400 and -450 for the past month. This is such a tragically mispriced line that I would recommend the books fire whoever handles their MMA business.
Brett Rogers is a respectable heavyweight and deserving of his fringe top ten ranking. Unfortunately for him, Fedor Emelianenko lands so far outside your normal distribution for talent that I have him as AT LEAST a -300 favorite against every other heavyweight not infected with mononucleosis (and I still have him as a substantial favorite against that guy, too).
I know a lot of people get put off when they see their $6.25 investment only returns a measly $1. Think of it this way though. You're still making nearly 16% on every dollar. If you can find me a more profitable place to put your money (and then one that doesn't require you to keep the money frozen for five years), more power to you.
Just a caveat. Even with an aggressive 95% win probability, 5-10% still represents a very real risk of failure. However, that projection, in my mind, covers the realistic paths to victory for Rogers - a Black Swan KO, fluke cut, or otherwise unforeseeable injury.
Load up, folks.