With all the "how marketable is Fedor?" talk it starts to feel like we're getting ready for a TV show and not a fight. When we do talk about the fight it all revolves around the supposed gaps in Fedor's striking technique and Rogers' need to exploit them. Over the past day I've been going over footage of Fedor's fights and one thing is very clear when it comes to the striking aspect of his game...it's all about timing.
In almost every one of Fedor's fights we see him set up, try to establish the distance he wants, and use small scale footwork to retain said distance until he is ready to throw a lunging hook. Fedor uses that lunging hook in almost every fight and it becomes a Choose Your Own Adventure of pain for the opponent:
If you would like to absorb a flurry of punishing blows, please cover up and move directly backward.
If you would like to go to the ground and face brutal ground and pound or be submitted, please clinch up.
Let's take a look at several of his fights and try to learn where, if anywhere, he can be beat standing.
Against Gary Goodridge it was a lunging left hook that sets up a flurry of punches, some soccer kicks, and a referee intervention.
Against Zuluzinho it was the same lunging left hook that dropped the big man like a really jiggly stone. With Hong Man Choi the lunging hook was landed before the second takedown which led to the armbar.
Tim Sylvia got introduced to the lunging left hook as well. This time the hook lands and forces Sylvia to tie up where he can't effectively use his length. From here Fedor was able to unload with a flurry that drops Tim and sets up the choke.
So clearly the lunging hook and ensuing flurry is used often and effectively by Fedor. Which leads us to the question of "what can you do to avoid it?" The first opponent who was effective in the stand-up was Kazuyuki Fujita. Most people remember Fujita rocking Fedor but there was a lot that went into that moment. Mainly Fujita used a pawing jab which at least got the Russian to hesitate when it comes to jumping in. Also, Fujita is trying to time the hook. There is a moment early in the fight where Fedor leaps in with the left hand and Kaz throws a perfectly timed counter right. Unfortunately for Fujita he just misses the chin and lands to the chest of Fedor. There are two other times where Fujita times the hook and tries to counter.
Then there is the big moment where Fedor's legs are turned to jelly. As Emelianenko starts throwing his flurry of punches from the hips Fujita comes over the top with a right hand that almost ends the fight. The lesson to take here is that you can make Fedor hesitate to engage by throwing a jab. When you slow him down you can try to time the lunging hook and counter. Also, when he flurries Fedor does leave himself a little open and can be clipped.
Finally, the Arlovski fight. Andrei uses leg kicks, jabs and a simple left-right combination to throw off Fedor's timing. This is the only time I can remember anyone using leg kicks to control distance against Emelianenko. In the fight you can see Fedor start to get a little frustrated as every time Andrei engages he is forced to take a step back and reset. In fact, the action directly before the knockout included "The Pitbull" made Fedor step back and reset his feet three times, forcing him into the corner where Arlovski went for broke rather than continuing what worked.
Again, the key to the Arlovski success was using patient, low risk strikes to throw off Fedor's timing. When he can't set up at the distance he wants he can't unleash the hook which is the start to his attack probably 85% of the time.
All of this brings us to Saturday night and Brett Rogers. I don't think Brett is the kind of guy who will be willing to be patient and try to win the fight through a series of small victories standing. Nor do I think he will sit back and try to time the lunging hook. That isn't how Rogers works. He is a straight forward rushing bully who has enough power that he just wants to connect solidly once. While Brett has a chance it is the exact definition of a "puncher's chance." If Fedor throws a hook and tries to flurry off of it Brett may be able to catch him in the exchange and knock him out. The opportunity is there, but it's such a low percentage victory plan that I just don't see it working against the best fighter on the planet.
