UFC 106's main event light heavyweight tilt will feature the return of what many consider to be one of the most influential fighters among the casual fanbase the UFC has ever produced. Tito Ortiz (15-6-1, 14-6-1 UFC) will finally make his return to the ranks of the UFC following a year-and-a-half layoff due to a contract dispute, free agency talks with other promotions, an appearance on The Apprentice, and back surgery. His return match-up will be a rematch of his controversial split decision victory over Forrest Griffin (16-6, 7-4 UFC) back at UFC 59. Ortiz will not only get the opportunity to prove that he's finally back to 100% healthy for this fight, but he'll also be thrown into the mix immediately with the chance to redeem himself of his past loss.
Ortiz will enter this contest riding a 0-2-1 record in his last three appearances in the Octagon. His loss to Lyoto Machida at UFC 84 was easily his worst performance of the three encounters, but many fans still give Ortiz credit for nearly submitting Machida in a triangle choke late in the fight. Ortiz's draw with Rashad Evans, another eventual champion, was mostly blamed on the fact that Ortiz grabbed the fence at one instance during the fight while fending off a takedown. He was deducted a point, and thus the fight was ruled a draw.
Ortiz has blamed the lackluster performances on an ailing back that has bothered him for a number of years and taken the wind out of his sails in terms of explosiveness in his wrestling ability. While it's a debate among some fans whether Ortiz is simply making excuses for his losses, Ortiz did have back surgery to repair his back and has mentioned that it will be at 100% for his bout with Forrest Griffin.
He's also taken it upon himself to improve his skill-set from its mostly one-dimensional form of takedowns and ground and pound to a much more dynamic skill-set in which he can be dangerous in different areas. He trained with Cleber Luciano, a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and Judo, for this fight. You may remember Luciano as one of Christiane "Cyborg" Santos' trainers. Ortiz also employed the services of famous boxing trainer Freddie Roach to improve his techniques in the boxing department for this fight.
This fight still won't be an easy endeavor despite the increased health and newer training methods. Griffin offers good size, solid kickboxing ability, damaging hands, and a natural toughness to withstand a beating. He doesn't possess a granite chin by any means, but he is able to take a beating and continue to come forward. He has solid jiu-jitsu tactics on the floor, and it'll really become a question as to whether Ortiz can power through Griffin's abilities to keep his posture down as Griffin's guard is pretty tough to break.
Conditioning will also be a factor as Ortiz has been off for quite a long time while Griffin has continued to show that his level of conditioning is top notch in his past fights. From most of the interviews and reports we've seen, Ortiz has been pushing himself to the limit in terms of conditioning, and his training camp at Big Bear should help him in that regard.
Ultimately, I think this will turn into what the last fight eventually became... a sloppy boxing battle between two guys who are considered wrestlers rather than strikers. While Forrest tends to strike more than wrestle, he's still not a surgical technician with his strikes. Neither is Ortiz. Both men don't present some sort of blazing fast speed advantage, so Forrest probably won't be ridiculed into a sprint for the locker room after the fight.
Tito's new back will probably be tested as I'm sure he'll look for explosive takedowns, but Griffin has shown a good sprawl in the past. I could see Griffin getting taken down and pounded on in this one, and I'm more inclined to believe Ortiz's new health will show itself here. I'll take Ortiz via decision here as I think he'll show some improved boxing and explosiveness in his shots. Don't bank of Griffin stuffing everything unless Tito's back completely goes.