For the first time in his professional MMA career, Fedor Emelianenko will fight inside of a cage instead of a ring. Against a very large opponent with a lopsided skill set, it becomes to difficult to forecast how that will affect his performance. Will Fedor be bullied and bruised with his back against the fence or will his legendary ground and pound prowess become even more menacing as he traps opposition unable to hide underneath ropes?
Unlike CroCop prior to his fight with Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 70, Emelianenko hasn't dismissed the idea of training in a cage as essential. The Last Emperor has pledged to train in the cage in preparation for at least this bout, but the reality is he has experience using the cage in training for more than just a few months. The video above evidences at least some minimal exposure dating back several years.
One shouldn't under or overestimate this since there is a question of usefulness. That is, the idea that Emelianenko is going to be bewildered and overrun by a cage-savvy Rogers seems exaggerated (short of pressing the far smaller Russian into the fence in clinches or in top control). Conversely, training in a cage or cage-like environment is not tantamount to learning specific cage tactics from experienced veterans. Emelianenko constantly harps on how his techniques aren't as flashy as other fighters, but rather, are "battle tested" and therefore reliable. Does that mean his often sub-par and somewhat cage-inexperienced Red Devil teammates stepped aside in favor of training from those who know the ins and outs of off balancing, scooping, pressing, turning, dumping, punching, kneeing, pushing, pulling, clinch breaking and more against the fence? We won't really know until Saturday and may even find that Saturday won't answer many questions.
Therein ultimately lies the problem. Whereas CroCop was so ill prepared for the cage that one performance against Gabriel Gonzaga (and perhaps the inability to cut off the cage against Eddie Sanchez) revealed his obvious shortcomings, Rogers is the sort of opponent who may not tell us much. Should Emelianenko use his speed and open cage spacing to enhance use of angles or movement, he could keep the fight largely off the fence. In such a situation, we learn next to nothing. And even if Rogers finds a way to clinch and press Emelianeko's back against the fence, we still may not learn much. Fedor's takedown defense is mostly limited to single leg escapes, so should Rogers take Emelianenko down with a double leg scoop against the fence we haven't exactly arrived at revealing territory about Fedor's foibles.
How he responds underneath could be more interesting. Emelianenko's legendary hip movement could be severely compromised by a cage-savvy opponent who presses the Russian's hips to the floor and neck and head into the fence. My bet, however, is that won't happen much or for very long. In addition to having hips useful for armbars or other attacks from the guard, Fedor also has highly underrated bridging and defensive hip heisting. Should he find himself underneath Rogers, I suspect you'll see the far superior grappler in Emelianko use explosive speed and exceptionally mobile hips to find a way out of even the smallest spacing Rogers will likely leave. A problem in grappling that large men often make is they rely on their size and base to do the positional smothering for them. Because most other large grapplers can't use small openings or gaps in spacing, they tend to not be aware with smaller opponents that an inch of space between hips can mean the difference between an escape and continued dominance.
Rogers will also have a significant size advantage. By pressing Emelianenko into the cage and forcing the Russian to carry his weight, it will be difficult to decipher where Fedor's problems begin with Rogers' size and end with tactical confusion or ignorance.
The reality is that it may take two or even three fights inside the cage for us to really know how Fedor's game translates across fighting platforms. We don't really know what he's picked up from training partners across the years, only what he's stylistically shown us in performances that never took place in a cage. How all of that translates is difficult to unpack.
My sense is that the learning curve is not as steep as it once was. Best practices in MMA are more widely available and known than ever before. And we are talking about arguably the most talented fighter on the planet. Even if he's behind the curve on cage tactics, he's ahead virtually everywhere else.
What I will be looking for is how adept Fedor on two considerations. First, Emelianenko's ability to stay off of the fence where as a stationary target he can be clobbered or controlled by the heavy-hitting Rogers. I expect to see a lot of turning and moving off of Fedor's cross. Second, Emelianenko has a storied career in escapes from bad positions, but I'm more concerned with how he'll prevent Rogers from putting him in a bad place to begin with should the fight move against the cage. Yes, Fedor can bridge out from underneath, but we'd know more if he used relentless underhooking to rip Rogers off of his hips when his back is against the fence only to turn the undefeated prospect, clinch break and resume fighting in the center of the cage.
The cage won't be so foreign to Emelianenko that Rogers can use it to sail to easy victory, but it won't be home either. Fedor will be the smaller man fighting a stronger opponent who is well-versed in tactical cage use. How Emelianenko responds is anyone's guess at this moment, but there are myriad unanswered and justified questions about how he'll adapt and successfully perform in this new environment. We know the difference between the cage and the ring matters in high-level professional, but how much will it matter for Fedor?
Saturday we might find out.