In welterweight action, The Ultimate Fighter Season 9's welterweight winner in England's James Wilks (6-2, 1-0 UFC) will battle The Ultimate Fighter Season 7 contestant Matt Brown (10-7, 3-1 UFC). Wilks defeated one of the early favorites to win Season 9 in Che Mills in the elimination round to get into the house, and he subsequently defeated Frank Lester twice in The Ultimate Fighter house to move onto a final against Damarques Johnson. Wilks won the show by submitting Johnson in the first round via rear naked choke. Brown enters the contest with his most recent win coming in upset fashion against Pete Sell at UFC 96.
This fight has been the topic of some heated discussions within the MMA community regarding how this fight will actually go down. Most fans are under the assumption that this will be a striker vs. grappler battle, but Wilks did show a propensity during the show to strike with some of his opponents. His striking was fairly heavy, although he did not show the most technical stand-up game during the show. His submission ability, on the other hand, is his most dangerous attribute, and it could prove to be his best tool at avoiding Brown's strengths.
Brown is the better striker in this contest, and he's improved incredibly over his past few bouts in the Octagon. He managed to completely destroy a very game Pete Sell at UFC 96, and most fans watching could see the improvement in his abilities. While Wilks will probably want to test the waters in the striking department, Brown should be able to change that line of thinking pretty quickly.
On the floor, both men have brown belts in Brazilian jiu-jitsu under different instructors. Brown trains under Jorge Gurgel while Wilks obtained his belt under Erik Paulson. We won't get into a debate as to who has the more relevant belt here, but Wilks easily has the better submission ability on the floor. Brown offers more of a defensive game in this type of contest in which his opponent will be much more offensive, so I would look for Wilks to try to push this fight to the floor quickly. He showed some solid tactics on the ground against Damarques Johnson, and he should have the ability to put Brown into those types of situations as well.
Experience-wise, Brown also has an edge as he's faced much stiffer competition over the course of his career and in the UFC. Many fans would actually say that Brown is currently 4-0 in the UFC as some would say his split decision lost to Dong Hyun Kim was "robbery". I wouldn't go there, but he did manage to give Dong Hyun Kim a run for his money. Wilks' biggest fight to date was his win at the Finale over Johnson.
Pick your horse, fans. Will Brown's striking be the deciding factor in this fight, or can Wilks actually put Brown on his back and submit him? It's a tough call, but I'll go with experience in Matt Brown. While I think Wilks can win this on the floor, Brown has shown the defensive capabilities in his last few fights to ward off ground techniques, and his stand-up game should be much better than anything Wilks can offer. Of course, Wilks could pull off a leg lock and win pretty easily.