BloodyElbow.com staff predictions for "UFC 84: Ill Will"
BJ Penn vs. Sean Sherk
Luke Thomas: If you're a reader of this blog, then you've essentially witnessed me already lay out my case for Penn, but I'll describe it one different way. Lloyd Irvin has a motto he believes in and it goes like this: "Hard work will always beat talent when talent refuses to work hard." Nothing could be truer and I don't dispute that maxim even for a moment. But let's raise the question: what happens when talent actually does work hard? Now the equation is different. And that's where we find ourselves today. B.J. Penn, the talent, has finally decided to work hard, so hard work for the less-than-talented simply won't be enough. Penn by ground and pound, round 2.
Kid Nate: Got to go with B.J. here. Sherk is much tougher than almost everyone is remembering. Against Franca he survived 2 knees to the face and a guillotine that would've finished 99% of the division. But nevertheless, that shouldn't be enough to beat B.J. Penn, who, unlike Franca, doesn't just concede position and hope for a KO punch or a big submission. B.J. will defend takedowns, get dominant position and beat up Sherk on the ground before finishing with a submission. Penn by submission in 2.
Brent Brookhouse: I don't know that I've ever switched back and forth on a prediction as much as I have with this fight. When it was first announced I was strongly leaning Penn's way but now as I sit here typing I can't pick him. It's kind of a general "rule of thumb" for me that if I'm having a tough time picking a fight I look for the biggest strength to weakness element of the fight. In this match-up I think that is cardio. If Sherk can survive the first two rounds (a big if...admittedly) he'll be able to do pretty much anything he wants in the second half of the fight. I think Sherk gets put in some bad spots early but survives to get a stoppage win in the 4th or 5th round. Sherk by TKO.
Michael Rome: We've all hashed this one out a lot over the last month. I think BJ Penn is going to win in dominant fashion in the second round, and spend most of this fight on top of Sherk. The cardio isn't going to help him survive the onslaught that is coming early. BJ via rear naked choke, 2nd round.
Nick Thomas: Penn's smack talk has been top notch building up this fight nicely for the fans. In the end, I think BJ can weather the storm that is Sean Sherk. As long as BJ doesn't let this slip into the later rounds, he should win decisively. Penn by early submission.
Wanderlei Silva vs. Keith Jardine
Luke Thomas: For me, I cannot allow my love and appreciation of Silva as a fan simply will me into picking him here. There are considerable match-up problems for Silva and to ignore them because Silva needs a win is foolish. Aside from the difficulties Jardine presents in reach and outside kickboxing, Jardine also has a respectable ground game with sufficient takedowns. Most importantly, though, is that Silva's style of trapping people and firing a barrage of punches either moving forward or with planted feet doesn't work as well in the open space of the Octagon. Jardine was able to avoid Liddell's incredible reach which is for sure longer than Silva's. Provided Jardine stays on his horse and doesn't get pressured in close range as he did against Liddell, this is his fight to lose. Jardine, by decision.
Kid Nate: I'm struggling with this one. I really don't want to see Wanderlei, one of the all time greats, lose to Jardine, a fighter I just refuse to see as a top contender. And he's only in his early thirties, too young to be done. But its really hard for me to see how Silva can beat Jardine. He's giving up size and Jardine's style is just plain awkward. Jardine seems to have the edge on the outside and his leg kicks could really hamper Wanderei's mobility. Jardine by Decision.
Brent Brookhouse: I like Silva here. Jardine looks good against guys who rely on counter-punching, but he seems thrown off when someone is putting a lot of pressure in his face. He was able to pick apart Liddell with leg kicks because Chuck waits back for an opening rather than getting in your face and forcing one. Silva is coming straight ahead though and I don't think Jardine has a ton of explosive power in his strikes to where he'll be able to make Wanderlei hesitate. It'll be a small setback for Keith, and possibly Wanderlei's last marquee win. Silva by TKO.
Michael Rome: Ah, my heart v. my brain. I want Wanderlei to win this so bad, but I think Jardine's reach and size will be a significant problem for him. I think the idea that the Houston fight "proves" Jardine stinks on the inside is just wrong. He was caught by surprise by the kind of onslaught we haven't seen Wand unleash in years. Despite all this, I am going to pick Silva. I just think he needs the win so bad that his heart will carry him through here. Silva via TKO, round 3.
Nick Thomas: Upset #1: Jardine with the reach advantage. Jardine by one step closer to a title shot at 205.
Wilson Gouveia vs. Goran Reljic
Luke Thomas: Reljic is talking smack, but it's hard for me to see how he wins this fight. Everything he's good at Gouveia is slightly better. Thrown in some UFC jitters and I think a spirited performance from Reljic turns to a loss within a round. Gouveia by TKO.
Kid Nate: Gouveia should send Reljic back to Europe on a stretcher. Gouveia by TKO in 1.
Brent Brookhouse: Gouveia has much better striking, shouldn't get outclassed on the ground, and has faced much better opposition. Wilson by dominant decision.
Michael Rome: I hate that this is on the main card above the Sokoudjou fight, because it's a meaningless fight. Gouveia is the better all around fighter, and won't get subbed. Gouveia via decision.
Nick Thomas: Reljic is tall, 6'3, good reach, 7-0 but supposedly his striking is terrible. Gouveia by sloppy KO.
Tito Ortiz vs. Lyoto Machida
Luke Thomas: The claims of Ortiz being washed up are grossly exaggerated, but that will be hard for Ortiz to prove against a fighter like Machida. Lyoto's ability to keep distance, work angles and play conservative are going to frustrate Ortiz. In addition, I'm betting that while Machida's takedown defense is porous, his ability to get off of his back will be exceptional. Most importantly, while Ortiz comes out guns blazing in the first, he tends to fade over the course of the fight. That worked against Griffin and to a lesser extent Evans, but it won't work here. Machida by decision.
Kid Nate: This is a hard call, and not because I have a big emotional investment in either fighter winning. Instead it's because both fighters present a very unusual stylistic challenge and neither has faced anything like the other's style. Ortiz' wrestling used to be overwhelming but he's definitely lost a step. Machida's foot speed and baffling stand up style gives opponents fits but rarely results in a clean KO. This one could be really interesting or it could be a real fiasco. Throwing a dart here, I'll say Machida by Decision.
Brent Brookhouse: I understand that it is a big story, but doesn't it seem like Ortiz is doing 25 interviews a day about Dana White and mentioning Machida once if at all? Lyoto isn't the kind of guy you want to not have all your focus on. Tito is experienced though and I don't think he's overlooking the younger fighter. The big thing here is that Machida is as sound a technical striker (if not more sound) than anyone Ortiz has ever faced and his timing is just crazy. He's also got a few more tricks on the ground than Liddell...so he's a worse match-up than Chuck was in my eyes. We all saw how horrible Tito has looked against Chuck, to where he is desperately diving in trying to grab a single and looking like a guy with only a small amount of pro fights. Machida is going to frustrate Tito ten times more than Chuck ever did and as soon as Tito makes a mistake Machida will finish him. Lyoto Machida by TKO.
Michael Rome: For me, this is the most intriguing fight on the card. I think Tito's size and wrestling ability will carry him to victory. It was just 10 months ago that Tito Ortiz outwrestled Rashad Evans, who all experts claimed was a superior wrestler. Either way, this is going to decision, and it will be close, which should make it pretty exciting in the third round. I also think Machida's striking advantage is overstated, this is hardly Liddell/Ortiz. Machida is not a very powerful striker, Tito will not need to fear coming inside to set up takedowns the way he had to against Liddell. Machida can win if he can use his speed to avoid takedowns and punish Tito for every attempt, but I don't see that happening. Tito via decision.
Nick Thomas: Can't wait for this one. I almost want Tito to win just to see the fallout with rival organizations and Dana. But Machida has been a tear and is undefeated... Machida is the future, Ortiz is oldschool. Machida will end this fight standing.
Thiago Silva vs. Antonio Mendes
Luke Thomas: Not much to say here, really. Mendes is no pushover but it's hard to envision him coming out and over powering and out working the skilled veteran in Silva. Again, add to that some UFC jitters and Silva should win smoothly. Silva by TKO, round 1.
Kid Nate: The easy call is Thiago by quick KO, but I think Mendes might be better than that. T. Silva certainly shouldn't be favored as heavily as he is. Nevertheless, I'm going to pick Thiago Silva by KO in 2.
Brent Brookhouse: I can sum this fight up in three words: Silva by TKO.
Michael Rome: Thiago via TKO, round 1.
Nick Thomas: Thiago Silva is another fighter at the upper echelon of 205 and has alot to lose in this fight. I don't know much about Mendes, but he's in for a rough night with Silva. I'm picking Silva by TKO.
UNDERCARD
Ivan Salaverry vs. Rousimar Palhares
Luke Thomas: Palhares us being slept on here big time. His BJJ pedigree is exceptional and his attacking style with good takedowns reminds me of a middleweight Thiago Tavares. Salaverry is no joke on the ground or standing and has some tricks up his sleeve, but this is Palhares' fight to lose. Palhares, by submission, round 2.
Kid Nate: Palhares by submission in two.
Brent Brookhouse: Salaverry all day here. Big show experience is something you can't underestimate. Add in the fact that he is a more well rounded fighter and I see him putting a hurting on Palhares on the feet and then finishing him on the ground. Salaverry by sub.
Michael Rome: I'm taking Palhares here. I understand Salaverry has the experience, but the video I've seen of Palhares is very impressive, as are his wins over Negao and Acacio. Palhares via submission, round 2.
Nick Thomas: It's Palhares UFC debut... that's enough for me to pick against him. Hopefully Salaverry pulls off an exciting win because I've always been a fan. Salaverry by submission and then blowing kisses.
Rameau Sokoudjou vs. Kazuhiro Nakamura
Luke Thomas: With the UFC jitters behind him, I expect Sokoudjou to return to form, which is to say, I expect him to rain down heavy, heavy strikes on Nakamura. I suspect to some extent their judo will cancel each other out and while Nakamura is incredibly durable, I suspect this fight will either stay standing or with Sokoudjou on top. And that means lots and lots of punishment for Nakamura. Sokoudjou by TKO, round 3.
Kid Nate: This is a fight I really wish wasn't on the undercard. I mean really, they're pushing Gouveia over these top fighters from PRIDE? Could be interesting, both are judo based and willing to throw down. Sokoudjou by KO in 1.
Brent Brookhouse: Sokoudjou isn't a top ten light heavyweight in my eyes...yet. But he will get there. And he's going to have the first of many impressive UFC showings here stopping Nakamura. Soko by TKO.
Michael Rome: Both are coming off bad losses to Machida. I think this is a "do or die" fight, and I think Sokoudjou will come through with the TKO. This is the end of Nakamura in the UFC (actually, it may be the end either way). Sokoudjou via TKO, round 1.
Nick Thomas: Now that Sokoudjou has the first time UFC jitters out of the way. He should take this easily. Sokoudjou by Judo uppercut.
Rich Clementi vs. Terry Etim
Luke Thomas: Etim is decent on the ground and has an underrated guard. Like Cole Miller, his lanky frame makes guard passing and GNP more difficult for his opponets, but Clementi is experienced enough and skilled enough to not let this stop him. Clementi by decision.
Kid Nate: Etim's submission skills won't be enough to beat the veteran Clementi. Clementi by ref stoppage in 1.
Brent Brookhouse: If you don't appreciate what it takes for a fighter to do the kind of quick turnaround Clementi is dealing with...you don't understand the mental and physical toll that fight preparation takes on a fighter. Clementi deserves some more camera time and bigger fights. Clementi by decision.
Michael Rome: Clementi is coming off a tough win over Sam Stout just a month ago at UFC 83. I think he's going to win again here, Etim is tough, but Clementi's experience will win out. Clementi via submission, 3rd round.
Nick Thomas: Can't believe Rich is fighting so soon... what a beast. I hope this fight get's televised because it should be alot like the Sam Stout fight. Result and all. Rich Celementi by decision.
Jon Koppenhaver vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
Luke Thomas: Koppenhaver is tough and more durable than most, but isn't a technical fighter. Worse, he's facing an opponent with good defenses and explosive athleticism. I suppose Koppenhaver's mettle will carry him further than most, but not far enough. Yoshida by TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: Yoshida by ground and pound in 2.
Brent Brookhouse: Yoshida has 8 wins in a row, all coming since 2006. "War Machine" isn't particularly technical but he has a ton of heart. I'll take Jon and his "balls out, everything to lose" attitude here. Koppenhaver by TKO.
Michael Rome: War Machine has had a lot of legal troubles of late, and is finally back in the Octagon, where I think he's going to lose to a more technical and experienced fighter. Yoshida via decision.
Nick Thomas: Yoshida by TKO.
Jason Tan vs. Dong Hyun Kim
Luke Thomas: Kim is so underrated here it's sad. Kim is big time international prospect that trains at one of Japan's elite gyms (despite being Korean) and is a MONSTER for this weight class. Tan is going to get blasted here by the Korean "Stun Gun".
Kid Nate: Kim by KO in 1.
Brent Brookhouse: Tan by TKO.
Michael Rome: Tan via TKO, round 1.
Nick Thomas: Tan by TKO.
Christian Wellisch vs. Shane Carwin
Luke Thomas: The only knock on Carwin will be his gas tank given his hulking frame, but I don't think Wellisch is going to push this the distance. Carwin by TKO, round 1.
Kid Nate: Carwin by annihilation in 1.
Brent Brookhouse: I don't think Carwin is as good as the UFC wants him to be or the mini-hype train that was started after his signing. But I don't think Wellisch is going to pose much of a threat to him. I think Carwin will be able to take him down and beat out a decision. Shane Carwin by Decision.
Michael Rome: This is a tougher first fight than Velasquez got, but I still think Carwin is going to take it easily with his size and ground prowess. Carwin via TKO, first round.
Nick Thomas: Picking Carwin by TKO.