Gambling Spotlight: UFC 92

Most people have opened up their Christmas gifts already, but MMA fans still have one left unwrapped in Saturday's UFC 92: Ultimate 2008. With three monster fights, this looks to be one of the best cards of the year. I like to devote special attention to the main events, and with 3 on this card, I will only be doing in-depth analysis for them. Never fear, though, I'll chime in on some of the interesting undercard lines and a couple of really juicy bets on the K-1 Dynamite!!! card for New Year's.

It may not be the official main event of the card, but I feel most fans and bettors agree that this fight holds the most interest. We all know the history. Silva and Jackson met two times in Pride, with Silva coming out on top both times. Jackson showed periods of dominance in each fight, especially the second encounter, which makes this battle anything but decided.

In addition, we have plenty of questions each fighter will need to answer in the cage. Will the loss to Griffin, the departure of his trainer, and an unexpected period of insanity and its ensuing legal ramifications have any effect on Jackson mentally? His demolition of Keith Jardine aside, have the years of punishment caught up to Wanderlei Silva? Can he still defeat top tier competition? Will the change of fighting venue, rules, and organization play any part?

Personally, I'm always skeptical of these types of intangibles. Without some real inside information, most speculation is just that. For instance, some have raised questions about Rampage's demeanor in various pre-fight media appearances, but he's also shown his usual jovial self in Dana White's Video Blog (episode 2, to be precise). Regardless, it's not much of a stretch to attribute his perceived reserved emotions to a big fight with an opponent he has been dying to beat.

As for the move from Pride to the UFC, I don't see this as any advantage one way or the other. Silva loses out on his stomps and soccer kicks, Rampages loses knees to the head. Neither really has a style that gains or loses anything from the cage.

Jackson has lost to 3 separate fighters in the last 5 years - Silva twice, "Shogun" Rua, and Forrest Griffin. Silva and Rua have their obvious parallels, but all three share an ability to throw volumes of strikes. "The Axe Murderer" will have to successfully implement that strategy to be successful in this fight. He not only has to overwhelm Jackson to prevent him from using his counter strikes, but to mask his own defensive deficiencies. In his losses to Henderson and Liddell, Silva was at his best when he was on the attack. When he backed up, fought a more traditional standup game he found himself eating shots.

Rampage needs to make a couple tweaks to his game - notably get in shape and defend leg kicks, but he can be successful with the same strategy he used in the Griffin fight. Outside of a fortunately placed leg kick and some extremely poor judging, Jackson controlled the fight with counters and power shots which included dropping Griffin in the first period. Jackson has come a long way in the 4 years since the second fight with Silva. His standing game has improved tremendously in terms of defense, footwork, and crispness.

If the fight hits the floor, it will favor Jackson. Wanderlei will not take Jackson down (outside of knocking him down, which will be the end of the fight anyway), and also does not actively seek to sweep from the bottom. Silva, while having more ability in ground fighting, falls into the same pattern of Mirko Cro Cop who has a tendancy to hold on to a closed guard in attempt to get the referee to stand the fight up. Jackson won't likely pass Silva's guard without Silva throwing up a triangle or armbar attempt, but should sustain an active enough ground-and-pound game to avoid being stood up.

We're left with the 2 ton gorilla in the room, Silva's Muay Thai clinch. It's hard to argue that Rampage will fare any differently than the first two fights without empirical evidence. It should be noted that he he did a good job defending and escaping the clinch in the second fight before tiring and getting hurt later in the fight.

Getting +105 (and especially the +110 "sharp" line I'm getting from Bodog), I like a 1u play on Jackson here. Silva has a hard time with guys who do 2 things - strike well with power and wrestle. Jackson does the first well, and the second well enough to come into play with Silva. Assuming he comes into the fight in shape and can avoid the clinch, I see Jackson winning a late TKO or decision.

Overachiever. That's the word that best described my feeling of both fighters after watching tape for this fight. Griffin benefited by a freak leg kick (and awful judging) and an out-of-shape "Shogun" Rua in his path to the 205 crown. Evans, meanwhile, did impress me in the fight with Liddell, but that comes off extremely lackluster fights with Mike Bisping and Tito Ortiz. Both have done a great deal to shed the "Ultimate Fighter" label, but I think both have room to improve to stay on top of the division.

Ultimately, I think this fight will be decided on Griffin's size and conditioning. Evans struggled with the much larger and more one-dimensional Tito Ortiz back at UFC 73. With the pace that Griffin likes to push, Evans will have a tough time keeping up for five rounds.

Griffin should be able to bully Evans around the ring and hold him up against the fence while punishing him with knees and elbows. I'd really like to see him make use of the Thai plum in this fight as well. Bisping was able to land some effective strikes from it, but Evans was able to power out and escape sustained strikes. Griffin, however, could make great use of his height and reach to control "Sugar" for an eloganted period of time.

Griffin utilizes a great defensive guard that allows him to avoid significant damage from his back. Therefore, Evans' success will depend on his ability to hurt Griffin standing. He successfully waded through Liddell's reach throughout their fight, but Griffin doesn't have the same holes in his striking game as Chuck. Because he doesn't really have to worry about Griffin KOing him, he shouldn't be afraid to move forward, throw hard, and try to turn the fight into a brawl. If he can land a solid shot to the chin (a la Jackson or Jardine) he can drop Griffin and work for a stoppage.

Getting -130, I like a 1u play on Forrest Griffin, late round submission or decision. While I said I'm not overly impressed with either guy, I am very excited to see this fight. They are on a high-level, they both have very impressives camps, and both come to fight.

To listen to Frank Mir talking about "Minotauro" Nogueira, you would think Mir is toasting his sister's future husband, not preparing to fight him. I'm all for fighter's being respectful during the pre-fight hype, but Frank has done a complete 180 from his boasting about being a "better athlete" than Nogueira on the Ultimate Fighter show.

Regardless, there's good reason for Mir to hold Nogueira in such high regard. "Minotauro" is an elite fighter who would easily go down as this era's best heavyweight if it wasn't for some Russian guy named Emelianenko. Nogueira, while flirting on the brink, has yet to be finished in an MMA fight over his 36 fight career which is doubly impressive when you consider his opposition over that timeframe.

Mir, on the other hand, was a guy the UFC gambled their chips on and haven't seen a return on their investment. Sure, a lot can be blamed on an unfortunate motorcycle accident four years ago. Still, this is a guy who was completely embarassed by Ian Freeman in 2002. With his jiu-jitsu acumen, he'll always be a threat in the jiu-jitsu thin heavyweight division, but he doesn't have the well-rounded skills or conditioning to be a truly great champion.

Unfortunately, he's running into a guy with arguably better jiu jitsu, but a much better well-rounded game. Nogueira's standup gets blasted by many, but the truth is that he has very good (by MMA standards) boxing. He lacks size, and consequently power, for it to make a difference in a fight, but he can hold his own with most in the division (K-1 level guys like Cro Cop and seven foot behemoths like Sylvia, notwithstanding). He also has a solid clinch game where he likes to throw knees to the body and use trip takedowns. He shows all of this in his 14 minute domination of Heath Herring.

Then you have the issue of Mir's small gas tank. I have no doubt that we will see the most in-shape Frank Mir we have seen in a long time, if not ever. But can you really trust a guy who can barely make it into five minutes of a fight to go five rounds? I certainly don't. I expect Nogueira to weather whatever storm Mir can muster in the first few minutes of the fight and proceed to batter him for the next 15 to 20 minutes.

With a line of -350 I like a 2 to 3u play on Minotauro Nogueira. Once this fight escapes the first 180 seconds, Nogueira will take it by whatever he wants.

Undercard and Dynamite!!! 2008 Lines of Interest

I really really love the line on JZ Cavalcante at -120 (it opened at -115 which is even nicer). Run, don't walk to this one.

I like Alvarez at -115. Outside of Hansen, Aoki hasn't submitted anyone of consequence. His striking is awful. Alvarez's is good and he has tons of power.

Massenzio and Blackburn should be good for a small play at +140 and +180 respectively to round out the UFC 92 lines.

Good luck everyone.

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