A lot of people have looked at Evan’s brutal OMGKTFO over Liddell and are expecting a similar outcome Saturday night. Similarly, a lot of people don’t know their assholes from their armpits. Yes, this is MMA and anything can happen but the differences between Liddell and Forrest are going to make this an entirely different fight. Forrest has much cleaner and orthodox boxing technique than Liddell, evidenced by Forrest’s ability not to drop his hands as if to say, “You won’t punch me right in the jaw. Seriously, try it. Pussy.”
In an interview with MMAweekly.com, Forrest himself says he sees this fight as a “little more like [Evans'] fight with Bisping.” While the similarities between Forrest and Bisping are much closer than Forrest and Liddell, Evans still came out on top in that fight, albeit by split-decision. The size differential between Forrest and Bisping should also provide a greater challenge for Evans, as Forrest walks around at about 220 and Bisping is able to cut to 185.
This fight is literally a toss up, further evidenced by the sportsbook lines, but there’s no arguing that a victory for Forrest would truly cement his name alongside the very best this sport has to offer. A victory would add to his legacy and increase the size of his bank account, but not without a price: the more high quality wins Forrest racks up, the harder it’s going to be for him to try and make us believe he’s not that good.
I'm slightly leaning Evans, although I didn't see Griffin besting Rampage either. For me, though, Griffin's humility is grounded in reality. He doesn't bomb on oppositionl he nitpicks their weakness. He's also fought two men who took him extremely lightly. Shogun was in terrible conditioning and Rampage never checked a single kick (and was able to avoid being submitted despite being ridden in the mount for several minutes). Griffin's wins are still fantastic, but his jaw is still suspect and he does not possess the same athleticism Evans has. His method to victory is Chinese water torture, with a drip by drip approach until the accumulation is too much to stop.
I take issue with the idea that this fight will be much like the Bisping - Evans clash. People will point to Griffin's dubious takedown defense, but a) his ability to stop takedowns improves with every fight and b) he's got a fantastic guard combined with superb conditioning. In other words, you can earn points taking Griffin down, but you're not going to pass his guard or do much damage and you're for sure going to get tired making the double leg your only attack. While I believe Evans will push the takedown and will add penetration step feints to his footwork, I think he's only going to do so to keep Griffin off balance as much as possible. Evans will need to make sure to check leg kicks and to keep pressing Griffin to not allow him to set his feet for kicking or create too much distance.
Even if Evans does this, however, we still circle back to the problem of boxing. Griffin's jab and punch volume are considerable. Even if Evans is able to slow Griffin's pace with unpredictability, working his overhand will have to be delicately timed. Throw in Griffin's much improved defensive maneuvering and matters don't get much better. The trick, as it's always been, is to get Griffin to plant his feet and commit. Once he sits and stops moving, he can be out-angled and surprised by a quicker, more sprightly technician or well gameplanned athlete. Maybe we'll find out if that fighter is Evans this Saturday.