Staff Picks For UFC Fight Night 12
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Mike "Quick" Swick (10-2) vs. Joshua "The People's Warrior" Burkman (20-4)
Luke Thomas: The critical factors here are Swick's speed, reach advantage and takedown defense. We all know he can overwhelm opponents with his lightning quick flurries and with Burkman's poor footwork and haymaker sessions, Burkman leaves himself wide open. Moreover, while I suspect Burkman will get a takedown or two, Swick's training with Josh Koscheck and Jon Fitch will prove enormously beneficial here (Swick's guard is also pretty effective). Swick also claims he's already completed a few practice cuts to make sure his body can handle the loss and apparently he's fine. Burkman's got nowhere to hide here. Swick, TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: Unless Swick botches his weight cut and is dramatically slower than he was at 185, his reach should give him a decided advantage standing. Burkman should be able to get the takedowns though and that could make for an interesting fight. Swick by split decision.
Brent Brookhouse: Burkman had trouble with Forrest Petz in his last fight after losing to Karo the fight before. Swick had trouble with Okami's strength and takedowns. Burkman is strong, but Swick is used to 185 lb type strength. Mike Swick by 2nd round TKO.
Michael Rome: Burkman really hasn't looked good of late. He wasn't competitive with Karo, and struggled with Forrest Petz. Swick struggled with Okami's strength, but he should be huge at 170. We'll find out if the cut was too big, but if he can handle the cut, he should take this easily. Mike Swick by 2nd round TKO.
Nick Thomas: It didn't go so well for Lambert, but my mancrush pick of the night is Burkman. I'm going with fellow white baldie by Decision.
Patrick "Predator" Cote (12-4) vs. Drew McFedries (6-2)
Luke Thomas: This is a very difficult match-up to forecast. McFedries has tremendous power and can stop a fight at any time, but his ground game is exceptionally weak for the UFC. Cote also has good power and a decent ground game, but can be tentative and lackluster at times. The difference for me is that Cote simply has more ways to win AND a decent enough jaw to persevere. Remember, Cote took Leben's shots on the jaw and kept moving forward. McFedries probably hits harder, but that won't matter. Cote, by Unanimous Decision.
Kid Nate: This one should stay on the feet. I think McFedries has more power but Cote has more polish. Cote by UD.
Brent Brookhouse: Cote has been really solid since the start of '06 going 5-1. McFedries is a really solid fighter in his own right. But I think in the last year Cote figured something out about himself and at 27 it isn't too late for him to really get his career going in the right direction. This will be a tough fight, but Cote wins by decision.
Michael Rome: I really don't see this one going the distance. Both guys swing for the fences, it's a matter of who really connects first. I've been really impressed by McFedries of late, and I suspect he'll take this early. McFedries via KO, round 1.
Nick Thomas: Guaranteed fireworks if they stay standing but I don't think that's how it's going to turn out. Either way, Cote by being Canadian.
Alvin "Kid" Robinson (10-2) vs. Nate Diaz (7-2)
Luke Thomas: While Diaz's wrestling is far weaker than Robinson's, that won't matter. It is shocking to read how much folks sleep on Diaz's jiu-jitsu, something Robinson has shown a weakness for despite his own jiu-jitsu credentials. Diaz recently submitted one of the best grapplers in the country at a super fight (Ryan Hall, Lloyd Irvin's current #1 student). I've rolled with Ryan personally many times and have not once been able to avoid his submissions. Robinson is aggressive and will take the fight early, but Diaz - like his brother - is a bit of a slow starter. So look to round three to be the decisive juncture. Eventually, Diaz's toughness and technical acumen will overcome the game Robinson. Diaz, by submission, round 3.
Kid Nate: Nate has his big brother Nick's bad habit of spending a lot of time on his back and Robinson should have the BJJ skills to avoid the subs. Robinson by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: This is an interesting fight. Robinson is a tough match-up for Diaz. He's strong and has a good enough ground game to possibly neutrilize Diaz's sub game. I'm going with the upset (Diaz is currently at -165) here. Robinson will grind out a decision from the top position on the ground. Robinson by decision.
Michael Rome: This is a very tough fight for Nate Diaz. Alvin Robinson got destroyed by Florian, but he's coming off a decisive ass kicking of Jorge Gurgel at UFC 77. I'm tempted to go with the upset, but I think Diaz will pull it off. Diaz via submission, round 3.
Nick Thomas: Even as a kid, Nate was a fuggin' badass. Nate by Decision.
Michihiro Omigawa (4-5) vs. Thiago Tavares (16-1)
Luke Thomas: Omigawa is a very durable fighter, but isn't right for the UFC or this division. His wrestling is far weaker than Tavares' and so is his jiu-jitsu. They are both judo black belts, but that doesn't really matter here. Tavares, by contrast, has a very scary, aggressive jiu-jitsu game that forces opponents into making mistakes via desperation moves. And don't sleep on the Brazilian's striking either. He has plenty to offer on the feet, and even more on the ground. Tavares, by submission, round 2.
Kid Nate: Tavares should be able to overpower and outgrapple the under-sized Omigawa. Omigawa really ought to cut down to 145 and move to the WEC. Tavares by RNC in 1.
Brent Brookhouse: Tavares' last 2 fights were a win over Jason Black (who has no business at 155) and a loss to Tyson Griffin. Omigawa lost to Matt Wiman in his only UFC bout. Judo vs. BJJ is always interesting but I figure Tavares is able to pull off the win. Tavares by Submission rd. 2.
Michael Rome: I thought Tavares was robbed in his last fight against Tyson Griffin. Omigawa is a step down in competition, and I think Tavares will put him away. Tavares by Submission rd. 2.
Nick Thomas: Tavares is the future and unless Omigawa has Couture in his corner, I'm going with Tavares by Rear Naked Choke.
Alberto Crane (8-1) vs. Kurt "Batman" Pellegrino (16-3)
Luke Thomas: Crane's pure jiu-jitsu is better than Pellegrino's and that is saying something. However, Crane's MMA game isn't half of Pellegrino's and that's the deciding factor. Pellegrino's jiu-jitsu is excellent and more than enough to handle Crane in a MMA grappling match. Couple that with Pellegrino's better wrestling, takedowns and striking and you begin to see this is just a very poor style match-up for Crane. Pellegrino, by TKO, round 3.
Kid Nate: Brent thinks this one is going to be a barn burner, but I'm fearing a stall-fest. Pellegrino has BJJ skillz, but Crane is so one-dimensional that "Batman's" best gameplan is going to be to keep the fight on the feet and score enough takedowns to win the Decision. Pellegrino by Decision.
Brent Brookhouse: Pellegrino is the better fighter and the better fighter will win, but something about this matchup is striking me as potentially very fun. Pellegrino submission rd. 3 in what could be the fight of the night.
Michael Rome: I'm really looking forward to this. Crane's fight with Huerta was a blast to watch, and Pellegrino is always exciting. Pellegrino is a lot more well rounded than Crane, and his submission skills are too good to get caught early. Pellegrino via submission, rd. 2.
Nick Thomas: Pellegrino, easy... by decision.
Dennis Siver (11-4) vs. Gray "The Bully" Maynard (4-0-1)
Luke Thomas: The odds on this fight are way off (Siver is considered to be a huge underdog), so keep that in mind as you bet. Straight up, though, I'm going with Maynard. He does rely on his wrestling a little much for my tastes, but Siver - despite being a very good striker - doesn't have the skills to stop Maynard in that department anyway. Maynard could get KO'd if he stalls on the ground which he has also been known to do, but I suspect his gameplan is to get on top and stop on top until the bell sounds or the ref pulls him off. Maynard, by unanimous decision.
Kid Nate: The main question in this fight is whether Siver's cutting down from 170 will leave him with enough power to slow down the "Bully". I doubt it. Maynard by TKO in the first.
Brent Brookhouse: Siver has never really performed well when stepping up the level of competition. He KO'ed Kotani but I'm not high on Naoyuki to begin with. Maynard isn't a world beater, but he is on that "next level" that Siver doesn't handle well. Maynard by decision.
Michael Rome: Siver's a guy that has never really lived up to his potential. Maynard has a lot less experience, but I suspect he'll come away with this one. Maynard by decision.
Nick Thomas: Siver's strength is takedowns, but Maynard's are better. Maynard has a great nickname, let's go with Maynard by TKO.
Jeremy "L'il Heathen" Stephens (14-2) vs. Cole "Magrino" Miller (13-2)
Luke Thomas: I get a bad feeling about this fight. On paper, Miller is easily the favorite here. He is the far more technical fighter and has the toughness and well-rounded skills to easily beat his Miletich-trained opponent. The problem is that while Stephens has a lot of work to do to bring his technical game where it needs to be, he's got the aggression and power to disrupt the best laid plans of mice and men. I also worry that Miller's coming in a little too confident. I'm going to stick with Miller as the prudent choice and because fellow ATT teammate Din Thomas already wrote the blueprint on how to beat him. But DO NOT be surprised to see an upset. Miller, by submission, round 2.
Kid Nate: Miller's BJJ should give him a big edge over Stephens who's shown a proclivity for falling into subs. Miller by submission.
Brent Brookhouse: Stephens can be subbed, Miller can do the subbing. Cole Miller by submission rd. 1.
Michael Rome: Cole is a great submission guy, and Stephens was submitted by Din Thomas at UFC 81, but I'm picking Stephens here. The kid has a lot of heart, and looked very good at UFC 76. Stephens via decision.
Nick Thomas: Miller by slowly working his way up to a main card.
Joe Veres (5-2) vs. Corey Hill (1-0)
Luke Thomas: Provided Hill doesn't get the UFC jitters, this is his fight to lose. Veres is no slouch, but he hasn't really beaten anyone that I can say impresses me. Hill is still a huge unknown, but clearly the UFC is setting up Veres as someone for Hill to beat. We'll see how their gamble plays off. Hill, by decision.
Kid Nate: Hill is going to have 10 inches of height on "Mighty" Joe Veres and should be able to stuff his takedowns. I haven't been impressed with what little I've seen I've Hill's standup or conditioning however. Hill by decision, but I won't be surprised if he blows it.
Brent Brookhouse: Veres has the experience, Hill has the god-given physical tools. One thing to keep in mind, the UFC knows Hill is marketable. Do you think that they're going to put him in against someone this early unless they think he can win? Plus...damn he's tall! Hill by TKO rd. 2.
Michael Rome: This is one of the most important fights of the night for the UFC. They see big potential in Hill, and this fight is specifically designed for him to get a win. Veres was utterly destroyed by Gray Maynard at Ultimate Fight Night 11, and I think we'll see the same here. Hill via TKO, round 1.
Nick Thomas: So tempting to pick an upset here... but I can't. Corey Hill by TKO.
Justin Buchholz (8-1) vs. Matt "Handsome" Wiman (8-3)
Luke Thomas: This is another fight that worries me. Wiman is a much better wrestler and has faced significantly better competition. Buchholz, while facing lesser competition, has KO power and can end the fight in a Mike Swick-esque flurry (peep his fights on YouTube for proof). Buccholz is a little too reckless and lacks some of the technical wrestling acumen required to give Wiman a run, but if "Handsome" gets careless expect Buccholz to make him pay. Wiman, TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: I just have to believe that Wiman's experience edge will be too much for Buchholz. Wiman by ref stoppage.
Brent Brookhouse: Justin Buchholz (8-1) vs. Matt "Handsome" Wiman (8-3) - Buchholz has finished a lot of guys..and finished them quickly. Unfortunately they're all "who the hell is that guy?" type fighters. Wiman has more losses, but he has also been in with real competition. Buchholz will have to deal with the UFC jitters on top of being overmatched. Wiman TKO rd. 1.
Michael Rome: Bucholz has an impressive record, but pretty much all of his knockouts are of unknowns. I think Wiman comes out on top via TKO, round 2.
Nick Thomas: But I'm going to go with an upset here. Buchholz by Decision.