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BJ Penn (12-4-1) vs. Joe Stevenson (33-7-0)
Luke Thomas: Contrary to the ruminations of morons across the Internet, this fight isn't even going to be close. Stevenson will not lay down for Penn, nor will Penn simply steamroll the Cobra Kai grappler. But it will be one-sided and Stevenson will lose. Remember, folks, we are talking about a fighter who couldn't handle the ground and pound or stand up of UFC-washout Josh Neer (I've also heard through close sources that Stevenson is a bit of a social drinker). However, short of some sort of miracle Stevenson has no way to win. Penn's takedown defense gave Randy Couture fits, his wrestling from working with Matt Lindland is superb, his jiu-jitsu is virtually unparalleled in MMA, his hands are very heavy, he's an experienced veteran and most importantly, he's in shape. Someone tell me, where does Stevenson have to hide? Penn will keep this fight standing until Stevenson is hurt, at which point it will hit the floor. Penn will execute the takedown, pass guard, mount, take the back and finish Stevenson. Penn, TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: I just have a hard time seeing how Joe Daddy wins this one. B.J.'s conditioning has always been the question mark but he's looking good and claims to be taking this fight very seriously. Stevenson is tough and his wrestling is probably better than B.J.'s but I don't think it's good enough to make up for B.J's mutant take down defense. B.J.'s stand up is too much, his take down defense is too much, his BJJ is too much. BJ by submission in the 2nd.
Brent Brookhouse: When the fight was first announced I immediately thought "oh man, I might have to go with the upset here." But then I sat down and really thought about things, Penn is basically the perfect guy to shut down Joe's game. And I don't worry so much about BJ gassing at 155. Penn by submission rd. 3.
Michael Rome: I like Joe and all, but I don't see how he can win this. BJ is going to be very strong at 155, and he's just better at every facet of the MMA game. Unfortunately for Joe, he doesn't even really have a puncher's chance, since he doesn't have the kind of power to knock BJ out standing. BJ by submission in the second.
Nick Thomas: Penn by decision - I actually think Stevenson has a good chance of winning this; I just want BJ to win more.
Gabriel Gonzaga (8-2-0) vs. Fabricio Werdum (9-3-1)
Luke Thomas: I am shocked by what I hear across the MMA community about this fight. Most think this is some sort of gimme for Gonzaga, something I have a very hard time believing. While Gonzaga is the favorite here, that doesn't tell the whole story. Werdum's wrestling is awful, but his clinch game - both from a control and offensive striking perspective - is excellent and that's where Werdum wants to be. He can dictate the pace, location and type of fight if he's allowed to work in the 50/50 over-under position. Gonzaga has had gas tank problems in the past and an experienced grappler in the clinch can be extraordinarily tiring. Moreover, someone please tell me who has finished Werdum ever in professional MMA? No one and tomorrow night will be no exception. If Gonzaga doesn't gas, he can grind out a brutal decision. If he's sucking wind at the 2:30 mark of the second, please believe Werdum will make him pay. Gonzaga, split decision.
Kid Nate: This is a very tough one to call. Both fighters are rebounding from a loss and Werdum needs to establish himself as viable in the UFC. Should be a brawl, they're pretty evenly matched on the ground, no one has a wrestling edge. Werdum beat Gonzaga back in 2003 but I think Gonzaga has done more to improve his game since then. I'm betting that his standup will give him the edge over Werdum. Gonzaga by decision.
Brent Brookhouse: I've got money on Werdum, but I have to pick Gonzaga to win this one. Werdum's best chance is to try to push the pace hard and get Gonzaga tired, but I don't think he wants to fight that way. Gonzaga by decision.
Michael Rome: Their first fight is one of my favorites. I've long been a Gonzaga skeptic, and was not surprised to see Couture destroy him in August. Still, I think Gonzaga will keep it standing this time. Gonzaga by decision.
Nick Thomas: Gonzaga by TKO - It's payback time for Gonzaga, sadly the majority of this fight will be a snoozefest.
Jess Liaudin (12-8-0) vs. Marcus Davis (18-4-0)
Luke Thomas: Davis is not a world beater, but a 10-fight win streak is nothing to sneeze at in professional MMA competition. Liaudin poses an interesting challenge for Davis as the two have different skill sets, but match up in terms of overall ability. While it's possible Liaudin will land the high kick he loves to throw, I suspect that won't happen here. Look for Davis to play the in-and-out range game here quite a bit in addition to using the clinch to control and slowly wear down the Frenchman. I do respect Liaudin's ground skills but he seems more like a gimmicky grappler that tries desperation leg locks (thereby exposing himself to what can often be savage ground and pound from those positions) or flying guillotines rather than one who methodically passes guard to set up a north-south kimura. Davis will wait for the slightly reckless Liaudin to make a mistake, then pounce. Davis, TKO, round 3.
Kid Nate: I'm actually quite stoked about this fight. Liaudin looked impressive in both his UFC matches, subbing Dennis Siver very quickly and beating the crap out of Anthony Torres. Davis should have a size/power advantage, but Liaudin's kicks might give him the same troubles that Paul Taylor's did. I'm going with Davis by TKO in the 2nd but won't be surprised to see an upset.
Brent Brookhouse: I'm not totally sold on Davis but I do think this is more or less a fight made for him to win. Should be a tougher fight than expected but I think Davis takes the decision after 3 hard rounds.
Michael Rome: Both guys are on a roll of late. Marcus Davis is coming off a spectacular win at UFC 75, but then again he was put in serious trouble by Paul Taylor. I think Marcus is on the road to a big fight next, and I expect him to take this standing. Davis by TKO round 2.
Nick Thomas: Davis by submission - My pick for Fight of the Night.
Wilson Gouveia (9-4-0) vs. Jason Lambert (23-6-0)
Luke Thomas: This is a difficult fight to forecast. The interesting aspect of this fight is that Lambert hasn't fought a great number of high-end jiu-jitsu players, a title which Gouveia certainly qualifies for. Although a brown belt himself, it's not clear to me how Lambert will do in top control against the guard of someone as technical as Gouveia (Sobral, also an accomplished jiu-jitsu practitioner, have Lambert fits on the ground early on before being KO'd). That being said, my hunch is it will be enough. Lambert will not trade with Gouveia on the outside, preferring instead to clinch/dirty box inside the clinch pressing Gouveia against the cage where he will also look for the ankle pic or double leg. I believe Lambert is deeply underrated and has a skill set/body type that is difficult to handle for everyone except other talented wrestlers. I don't know that Lambert finishes Gouveia, but he certainly hurts him here and takes the win. Lambert, by unanimous decision.
Kid Nate: Another fun one. Gouveia was impressive in the first round against Keith Jardine -- his legkicks were actually better than Jardine's. But then he gassed and lost the decision. I think Wilson has the skill edge here but if he doesn't finish Lambert early he'll pay for it, just like Babalu did. Gouveia by TKO in 1.
Brent Brookhouse: I'll take Lambert by TKO late in the 2nd round. I don't trust Gouveia's gastank and I think Lambert can survive the first round.
Michael Rome: I was supposed to see this live at UFC 76, but injuries got in the way. Lambert is now most famous for his KO over Babalu, but then again he also is one of the only guys Rashad Evans has been able to finish. I've been a Gouveia fan for a while, but I think Lambert pulls out a decision with his wrestling. Lambert by decision.
Nick Thomas: Lambert by TKO - Only because I have a man crush on him.
Jorge Rivera (14-6-0) vs. Kendall Grove (10-4-0)
Luke Thomas: Rivera is a respectable striker, but that's not going to be enough here. Yes, Grove's chin is suspect, but so is Rivera's. Inasmuch as it's possible, they cancel each other out in that regard. The difference, then, is going to be the pace Grove puts on the feet in addition to his effective use of reach. In other words, Grove is going to keep this fight on the outside while aggressively attacking the entire time. Grove has a very respectable job, good combinations, surprising angles, and a diverse arsenal of strikes. His clinch-breaking could use some work as Patrick Cote flattened him with his hands down coming off the clinch, but it's highly unlikely Rivera will get the same opportunity to exploit Grove's mistake. Expect Grove to keep his jab in Rivera's face along with leg and middle kicks that will force Rivera into desperation maneuvers. Grove's ground game is also significantly better than Rivera's, so should Grove decide to take this fight to the floor, "Da Spyda" will finish with elbows on top. Grove, TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: NOT excited about this fight, clearly Rivera is a come back fight for the once red-hot Grove. I expect Kendall to get the takedown and the submission in the first.
Brent Brookhouse: I'm feeling differently than Kid Nate on this one. I find fights like these interesting, Grove looked great before stepping in with Cote. Now we get to see how Grove rebounds against a veteran fighter. He should win, but how is his head? I think he will come out hard but Jorge will survive the first round. Grove by submission in the 2nd round.
Michael Rome: Rivera has a suspect chin, having been KO'ed by Leben and Martin. I expect this is just a walkover fight to get Grove back on the winning side. Grove by KO, round 1.
Nick Thomas: Rivera by KO - Upset of the night.
UNDERCARD FIGHTS
Antoni Hardonk (5-4-0) vs. Colin Robinson (9-3-0)
Luke Thomas: Robinson is a durable if somewhat unimpressive heavyweight. He'll have the hometown crowd in his favor as well as Hardonk's horrendous ground game. The problem? Robinson has a suspect gas tank and isn't much of a grappler himself. Hardonk's vicious leg kicks and overall Dutch muay thai game should be enough here. Hardonk, TKO, round 2.
Kid Nate: Jesus god, thank you for not putting this on the main card. Who cares about this match? Can't they find ANY good heavyweights?
Brent Brookhouse: I guess I'll go with Hardonk by decision.
Michael Rome: I have seen more of Hardonk than Robinson, and I haven't been much impressed. He was dominated and submitted by Frank Mir with ease. Then again, Robinson was destroyed by Eddie Sanchez of all people. I'm gonna go with Hardonk via TKO, second round. Happily this one probably won't make PPV.
Nick Thomas: Robinson by who cares.
Paul Kelly (7-0-0) vs. Paul Taylor (8-2-1)
Luke Thomas: Sorry, I don't care that Kelly trains at Wolfslair with Michael Bisping. He hasn't fought anyone of note yet. To boot, Taylor is an excellent striker and nearly finished former professional boxer Marcus Davis with a beautiful head kick. Taylor is not only the veteran and better striker, he's perfectly capable of handling himself off of his back should Kelly score a takedown or two. Taylor, KO, round 2.
Kid Nate: I expect Taylor to give the Michael Bisping protégé a brutal welcome to the UFC. Kelly has been racking up a flashy resume against weak British competition. Taylor has faced a much higher caliber of competition and will show it this weekend. Taylor by TKO in the first.
Brent Brookhouse: Taylor is a better fighter and the better fighter will win. Punch to the jaw, night over. Taylor by Rd 1 KO.
Michael Rome: This is a battle of the Brits, and it should be exciting. Taylor's fights thus far in the UFC have been very dynamic, and he was mere seconds away from defeating Marcus Davis. I haven't seen a ton of Paul Kelly, but I wasn't much impressed with the small amount of video I did find. I'll go with Paul Taylor via first round TKO.
Nick Thomas: Kelly by decision - Following in the footsteps of Bisping.
James Lee (25-2-0) vs. Alessio Sakara (15-6-1)
Luke Thomas: This is a lot easier to call than some are suggesting. Look, Lee is not well-rounded nor is he necessarily elite. What he is, though, is tough and brings takedown/wrestling/ground and pound acumen to the Octagon. Couple that with Sakara's inability to withstand blitzkriegs early on - a favorite tactic of Lee - and the prediction should be fairly obvious. Lee, submission, round 1.
Kid Nate: James Lee is another guy who's put together a flash record against VERY weak competition although he did recently submit journeyman Travis Wiuff. I think that'll be enough to put away Sakara, whom the UFC have unaccountably pushed long beyond any reasonable point. Lee by submission in 1.
Brent Brookhouse: Sakara is...out of his league in the UFC. Lee is a middle of the pack-at best kind of guy. I'm looking for Sakara to be stopped for the 4th time in his 6 UFC fights. Lee by 2nd round TKO.
Michael Rome: Sakara has been a stepping stone of late, and hasn't looked good in a long time. He may be an "Italian boxer," but the monicker is pretty meaningless. Lee is a very proficient submission guy, and has racked up a nice record. I expect him to "upset" Sakara here and jumpstart his UFC career.
Nick Thomas: Lee by submission - And Sakara drops to 185
Per Eklund (14-2-1) vs. Sam Stout (13-3-1)
Luke Thomas: Part of me really wants to give the edge to Stout. He has greatly improved takedown defense and I'm betting Eklund is going to work much harder than he expects to get the Canadian to the floor. But what happens then? While Stout's takedown defense is good, there is no doubt he's not long for this world against Eklund in a MMA or pure grappling bout. Eklund might go to sleep as he eats Stout's heavy punches on the way in, but I'm not going to write off the fight on something as improbable as that. Eklund, submission, round 2.
Kid Nate: Fights like this are why I've got UFC on Demand. Stout is killer on his feet but the well-rounded Eklund should have the submissions skills to take him out in the first.
Brent Brookhouse: I'm really hoping they find a chance to squeeze this onto the PPV. We'll get to the third round before Eklund is able to catch Stout in a sub. Per Eklund by 3rd round submission.
Michael Rome: Eklund is a solid submission guy, but I think Stout will keep it standing, where he has a clear advantage. Stout by decision.
Nick Thomas: Stout by being Canadian