Preview

Best friends turned bitter rivals. Former teammates Colby Covington (16-3 MMA, 11-3 UFC) and Jorge Masvidal (35-15 MMA, 12-8 UFC) are set to do battle this Saturday, March 5th, in the non-title main event of UFC 272.

Having both gone 0-2 against sitting welterweight champion Kamaru Usman, both men competing in this weekends headliner are fighting to retain their spot among the elite contenders at 170lbs. Given how long these two have been fuelling their rivalry in the media, and how long fans have been clamouring for it, this was undoubtedly the fight to make in the welterweight division. Backstory and animosity aside, this actually has the potential to be a great fight on paper.

When this fight was originally announced, I didn't give Masvidal much of a chance. To be honest, I thought Covington was a nightmare matchup for him and that the fight wouldn't be particularly close. I have since changed my mind, as I now believe 'Gamebred' possesses the necessary skills to make this fight super competitive, especially in the early rounds. Although 'Chaos' is clearly an unpleasant stylistic matchup, I don't think people are giving Masvidal the credit he deserves heading in. Perhaps they should reconsider his upside.

Breakdown

Covington's ability to weaponize cardio, volume, and forward pressure is among the best in the entire sport. Despite having made vast improvements in the striking department, Covington remains a wrestler at heart, and this will surely be his biggest weapon against Masvidal. On the feet, Covington typically uses short bursts of offense to close distance and drive his opponents into the fence, where he enjoys attacking single and double leg takedowns. He's also capable of using a wide variety of trips to get the fight to the ground. Against Masvidal, expect the majority of Covington's takedowns to come against the fence rather than in open space. A remarkable scrambler and chain wrestler, Covington uses minimal ground and pound, electing to prioritize keeping his opponents down over inflicting damage from top position. Although he rarely gets them, Covington will threaten with submissions and force his opponents to defend them, further limiting their ability to get the fight back on the feet.

Covington's key to victory will be to do what he does best: set a relentless pace, repeatedly score takedowns, and use volume striking to drown Masvidal. On the feet, it could be beneficial for Covington to utilize a jab in order to offset any forward pressure Masvidal might offer in the early portion of the fight. Covington is very much able to hold his own in the striking realm, using unusual angles to find a home for his punches, but in the end his ultimate goal is to use his striking in order to get his wrestling game going. It should be noted that Covington's constant forward movement often causes him to walk into counter-attacks, which he must be mindful of when fighting someone with the striking acumen of Masvidal. Grappling will be paramount for Covington, as it would be a terrible idea for him to stand with Masvidal for extended periods of time.

Masvidal is an MMA veteran who frequently leans on his striking to find success in the octagon, yet he does not get nearly enough credit for being as well rounded as he his. Admirable defensive wrestling, good jiu jitsu, and a promising ability to scramble out of bad positions might just be enough to throw a wrench in Covington's game plan. Despite his recent knockout loss to Kamaru Usman, Masvidal has some appreciable head movement. His ability to roll with punches against the cage in particularly impressive. In addition to having some of the best MMA boxing in the UFC, Masvidal loves throwing powerful and authoritative kicks to the body, primarily from an orthodox stance. Against Covington, using too many kicks could lead to him being taken down, so he must do his best to disguise them. Masvidal is excellent when it comes to disguising his attacks, a skill he regularly uses to set up the signature blitzes we have seen him finish many fights with. Further, Masvidal has demonstrated several times in the past that he is capable of switching stances and striking effectively from both southpaw and orthodox, a technique he might want to use in order to keep Covington guessing.

When it comes to Masvidal's potential keys to victory, there are quite a few. First and foremost, he needs to keep the fight standing. Masvidal has an underrated grappling game and has shown to be a good scrambler, even holding his own against the highest level of black belts in the sport. It will be interesting to see, if Masvidal can sprawl on a takedown attempt, whether or not he attempts to hunt for a submission. Masvidal has a sneaky ability to lock up front chokes on people trying to take him down, submitting Michael Chiesa and nearly locking up an anaconda choke on Demian Maia from the sprawl position. In the clinch, somewhere in which this fight is likely to end up at some point, Masvidal uses devastating elbows in close quarters as well as on the break. This can be an extremely effective tool for Masvidal to negate Covington's attempts to tie him up in the clinch. Masvidal is very good at landing punches while moving backwards and catching opponents who rush in on him, and against someone like Covington, he might be able to use Colby's forward pressure against him. Lastly for Masvidal, attacking the body could be an absolute game changer. Arguably Covington's biggest weakness is that he tends to keep a high guard, which leaves his body available for his opponents to attack. Rafael dos Anjos and Kamaru Usman (both times) were able to exploit this hole in Covington's game. Not only is Masvidal the most explosive striker Covington has ever fought, but he has the boxing skills to seriously make Covington pay should he leave the body exposed. Look to see him target the body early and often.

Prediction

There are several reasons this fight is being so highly touted, but in terms of what we're actually going to see on fight night, it will be the grappling-heavy pressure fighter going up against the gritty and explosive striker.

Masvidal possesses the necessary skills in the correct areas to exploit Covington's biggest holes, but this will need to be a masterful performance if he is to do so. Although Masvidal is a heavy underdog, do not be shocked if he pulls the upset here. While I am a true believer in Masvidal's chances, the logical pick here is the relentless and poised Colby 'Chaos' Covington.

Despite all the ways in which Masvidal could find success, the wrestling and control will allow Covington to win a unanimous decision after five rounds of good theatre. However, I reckon 'Street Jesus' will make it interesting.

Prediction: Colby Covington def. Jorge Masvidal by Unanimous Decision.

UFC 272 is set to go down Saturday, March 5th, at the T-Mobile arena in Las Vegas. Main card begins at 10pm, ET.