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Betting data shows most gamblers picking Logan Paul to upset Floyd Mayweather

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Boxing legend Floyd Mayweather is the odds on favorite to defeat Logan Paul in their upcoming exhibition bout, but the majority of the bets are actually in favor of the YouTube star pulling off the upset.

Floyd Mayweather v Logan Paul - Press Conference
Logan Paul and Floyd Mayweather face off.
Photo by Cliff Hawkins/Getty Images

It’s actually happening. Retired and undefeated boxing great Floyd Mayweather is actually doing an exhibition bout with YouTube sensation, Logan Paul, this Sunday night (June 6th). When the betting odds first dropped for this unlikely spectacle, Mayweather opened up as an expected -2500 betting favorite with a +900 comeback on the wildly less experienced Paul. Since then, a large influx of underdog wagers have shriveled up that betting line to -900 for Floyd, and +500 for Logan.

According to OddsChecker.com, the last week has seen 57% of bets get placed on Logan, with only 38.1% of the wagers in favor of Mayweather. How can so many people bet in favor of Paul, yet Mayweather is still a heavy betting favorite? Well, to put it simply, the real money is already on Floyd. The professional gamblers and big whales have already taken action, and whatever numerous wagers (dumb money) come flying in for the YouTuber, that dollar amount will never surpass the quantity of money that has already been dropped on Money May. We saw the same thing when Conor McGregor fought Khabib Nurmagomedov. More people bet on Conor, but more money was wagered on Khabib.

OddsChecker also mentions that a sizable 4.9% of the gambling public have placed their bets in favor of a draw. After all, this is an exhibition bout, with no declared winner at the end. Most straight up moneylines have been suspended for this reason, but knockouts are allowed, and there are a ton of crazy prop bets out there.

Betting on an exhibition can be a bit tricky, so now might be a good time to talk about how betting on either fighter can be a waste of time. When Mayweather ran right through Tenshin Nasukawa in an exhibition bout at Rizin 14, no betting odds were available for the match... because it was an exhibition without a true winner being declared. Now, let’s take a look at when we had betting odds for a boxing exhibition between Mike Tyson and Roy Jones Jr. Plenty of people bet one way or the other, but all bets were called off after the fight, as it was an exhibition match without an official winner. So, all of those people just tied up a bunch of bread for no good reason, just to get it returned. That sounds like an interest free loan to the bookies if you ask me. Be careful is what I’m saying.

A spokesmen for OddsChecker, Kyle Newman, had this to say about the bulk of bets being for Paul, “The odds are dictated by the market, and the bets have been on Paul. It’s tough to see any way he wins this fight, especially since he couldn’t even beat a YouTuber, but bettors are doing their thing. Perhaps the odds on Paul were simply too good to pass up, but even so it’s hard to see him actually winning the fight.”

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