It’s fight day for UFC Vegas 24, which is happening from the promotion’s APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. The top of the billing is getting the low stakes version of a fight that was supposed to happen at UFC 234 in 2019, in the form of Robert Whittaker vs. Kelvin Gastelum. Bloody Elbow is here with the betting lines for this non-title matchup, and the straight up moneylines are slightly wider than they were before.
The odds are still favoring Whittaker to get the job done in 2021, with his betting line extending a bit from his 2019 tick of -225 to his present day mark of -245. That means a winning $100 bet on Bobby Knuckles would see a total return of $140.82. As for Gastelum, his moneyline has puffed up a bit from a UFC 234 underdog line of +185 to a UFC Vegas 24 value of +225. A successful $100 bet on Kelvin would see a total payout of $325.
Okay, so Whittaker is no longer the UFC’s middleweight champion, but we’re still getting a scheduled five-rounds between these two world-class fighters. What’s interesting is that the 2019 fight that didn’t happen was projected to end inside the distance, while this time around the match is expected to reach the scorecards.
The prop bet ‘Fight doesn’t go to decision’ went from owning a strongly favored line of -175 in 2019, to playing the underdog role at +110 in 2021. Going back the other way, the proposition ‘fight goes to decision’ shifted form a UFC 234 underdog line of +145, to a current UFC Vegas 24 assessment of -125.
I think the reality here is that both men are damn hard to kill. Sure, Whittaker got knocked out by Israel Adesanya, but that was his only hiccup in his 10-1 middleweight run — including Yoel Romero TWICE! Gastelum is no different. Look at the punishment that Izzy dished out to him without being able to put him away. It’s like you have to submit Kelvin, or win on points, because he cannot be knocked out. For this reasons alone I feel like this fight should be favored to make it to the judges.
For an in-depth breakdown of each UFC Vegas 24 fight, check out The MMA Vivisection with Bloody Elbow’s own Zane Simon and Connor Ruebusch. Be sure to subscribe to our SoundCloud Channel or YouTube channel to stay up to date with all of our live video content. Stay glued to Bloody Elbow for all of your event coverage including play-by-play, results, highlights, and more! Happy hunting!