It’s fight day for UFC Vegas 38, which is going down from the oh so familiar APEX facility in Las Vegas, Nevada. There will be ranked light heavyweights looking to raise the bar in the main event when the #5 rated, Thiago Santos, will try and finish a full bottle of #10 rated, Johnny Walker. Bloody Elbow is here to disclose the betting lines for this top shelf matchup, and to provide the moneylines for the rest of the UFC Vegas 38 roster.
Despite being on the rocks with a three-fight losing skid, the oddsmakers are juiced on Santos here. Ryann Spann got hammered by Johnny Walker in September of last year, and that helped Johnny avoid his own three-fight losing streak, but it wasn’t enough for him to be favored over someone that made it debatable with Jon Jones.
For a cost of -145 gamblers can toast to the former title challenger in Thiago, with a successful $100 bet on him tipping out a total of $168.97. Johnny Walker straight is posted up with a small underdog value of +135, and at those odds, a winning $100 ticket would return a grand total of $235.
Both Thiago and Johnny are well-known for their 100 proof styles that have resulted in some brutal knockouts. Eight of Santos’ last nine wins came by way of finish, and 17 out of 18 of Walker’s total victories took place inside the distance. So, it’s no big surprise to see the bookies banking on this one not making it to last call. The prop bet ‘Fight doesn’t go to decision’ is sporting a heavily favored moneyline of -515, with a +375 comeback on the ‘Fight goes to decision’ option.
The more experienced Thiago is the fighter that the oddsmakers view as most likely to produce a finish. We’ve got the exotic bet ‘Santos wins inside distance’ clocking in at a minus line of -125, with ‘Walker wins inside distance’ trending at +175. Furthermore, “Marreta” has been forecasted to make Johnny Walker black out, as the prop bet ‘Santos wins by TKO/KO’ owns a favored tick of -110. Johnny is still dangerous and has been given a descent shot, as the ‘Walker wins by TKO/KO’ line can be thrown back at an underdog tag of +180.
Where do the bet-setters give Johnny the edge? In the sub-hunting department of course. Those with more than liquid courage can snag ‘Walker wins by submission’ at a lofty dog line of +2000, or grab ‘Santos wins by submission’ at even less likely odds of +2200. Walker has two sub wins under his belt, albeit to an at the time 0-4 (now 0-21) Marck Polimeno and 3-1 (now 3-2) Luis Guilherme de Andrade. Santos actually sub’d one cat way back in 2011. His name was Eneas Souza and he is still 0-1 as an MMA fighter.
For an in-depth breakdown of each UFC Vegas 38 matchup, check out The MMA Vivisection Podcasts with Bloody Elbow’s own Zane Simon and Connor Ruebusch. Be sure to subscribe to our SoundCloud Channel or YouTube channel to stay up to date with all of our live video content. Stay glued to Bloody Elbow for all of your event coverage including play-by-play, results, highlights, and more! Happy hunting!