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UFC 246: Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone win probabilities and possible bets

After crunching the numbers, here are the win probabilities and possible bets for UFC 246 tonight in Las Vegas.

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The win probabilities for UFC 246’s four qualifying matchups are in. Here are the estimated odds for each bout where both fighters have at least four fully-documented prior fights and aren’t heavyweights. For statistical overload on the distance, clinch, and ground alternative stats behind the McGregor-Cerrone main event matchup, see Tuesday’s piece.

Conor McGregor (66.2%) over Donald Cerrone
Raquel Pennington (57.8%) over Holly Holm
Diego Ferreira (74.7%) over Anthony Pettis
Drew Dober (51.0%) over Nasrat Haqparast

Current Bankroll: $9,078.30
No-Human-Error Bankroll: $9,475.67

The computer leans to two upsets tonight but only has one bet as of this writing (10:00am PT) with $204.26 on Drew Dober at +275.

Enjoy the glorious fights!

Note: This is an experiment and entertainment. Do not bet on the fights using these numbers. Taking sensible gambles with an edge over time is similar to investing. But if I’ve made a mistake somewhere, those same gambles without an edge become sucker bets. Let me be the possible sucker. You’ve been warned.

Paul writes about MMA analytics and officiating at Bloody Elbow and MMA business at Forbes, and is an ABC-certified referee and judge. Follow him @MMAanalytics. Fight data provided by FightMetric.